FOR FRIDAY: (6/23) Always nice to take profits before weekend and livestock reports. Possible that a final push down by Sunday or early Monday will be followed by a bounce going into the USDA report next week. In the end the crop looks good and rains and coolness will continue to be supportive. Market overdone for cattle on feed report. We still need to crunch next week’s meat cycles.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS: Hold July corn shorts from 381 and 380.50 with a 392 stop. Take partial profits at 357.75.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/23) Patterns project 357.25 and then a minor bounce to 366 or 369 at best. Breaking 360 will open up massive selling perhaps to 349-350. European weather now is an issue but how much corn do they really grow in Europe in contrast to the US? The seven-day and 6- to 10-day outlooks favor widespread beneficial rain for the Midwest with total amounts of an inch or more in northern Illinois and northeast Iowa. Also, the cooler weather should aid early-planted corn that will be entering its pollination period.
OVERALL: (6/14) One always has to hedge this mid-June weather rallies as they rarely last. Weather cycles aren’t hot and dry enough this year that we have to worry about a drought but the 90-day forecast is above normal in some areas. The 2-year cycle doesn’t support a drought nor the 12-year cycle nor the 29-year cycle so we’re not seeing problems.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Friday and Sunday/Monday; short-covering into Wednesday.
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