FOR MONDAY: (6/26) Would expect a climax in lower prices for grains by Sunday night/Monday and then some short-covering into the report or at least a bounce into Wednesday. Time to take partial profits but just not looking good for a positive report on Friday or into a July 3 cycle. Cattle on Feed report wasn’t great but market is rather overdone so maybe the upper pattern bounce will come in from oversold conditions.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July bean shorts from 931 with a 931 stop. Take more partial profits at 898.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/26) We took more partial profits at 901. Market not likely to take out 912 on bounces with support at 897.50. Long-term daily chart support at 895.00. While short-covering may happen this week, we won’t rule out prices to 878 or 858 at some point if there are no hot weather scares. Still a long way to go before bean pollination. Have to roll to the November contract shortly.
OVERALL: Daily chart suggesting 895 and if acreage increases, it’s possible that lower prices to 837.50 or 850 will come. If the market gets a weather scare at best a recovery to 968 might happen.
WEEKLY CHART: Given that the market is close to 895, key support, we wonder if a breakdown to 837 or 850 is likely before it’s done when hedging pressure enters.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Sunday/Monday; short-covering into Wednesday.
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