FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/8) Grains are waiting for USDA report on Thursday but cycles look lower into Friday so not thinking the report will go well and we should use any rallies to get short. Hogs could easily hold up one more day and we should be selling feeders on rallies.
MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/8) We did get filled on shorts. We feel better being short than long and the market is often lower after the Feb. USDA report. Can’t rule out seeing 371 if we get any surprises but market is in a tight range anyway.
OVERALL: Patterns ideally would be complete closer to 372 and 375 for a divergent high but doubtful that will happen unless it happens in March. If 349-351 holds on breaks in Feb, we may be hopeful for higher prices but may be asking too much. Only demand is keeping this market up.
WEEKLY CHART: (1/20) Starting to give up on 372-375 for an ideal sale and 387 would take a lot and a very bullish surprise to get up to. Sometimes in March you can get a recovery if damage is not too bad in Feb. Taking out the weekly chart trendline at 351 will be important to allow for something more dramatic to the downside. Old crop could get some help from ideas growers could slash acreage in 2017 by 4.5 million bushels. If the 90 million new crop acres holds, it suggests December 2017 rallies are possible to the $4.40 level, which would be a profitable place to hedge. With corn showing at loss at current prices, we have to wait quite a while until June as usual. There seems little point in early hedging unless you have cash needs and then you have to watch Feb. 2 and 5 for pulling the trigger.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways/higher into Feb. 9.
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