(3/21) Not a lot of news this week and Fedspeak may dominate headlines with Yellen on Thursday but what can she really say after raising rates? Cycles still suggest a recovering dollar and lower metals this week and we’re working on getting set up for that scenario but are patient for patterns and key numbers to complete.

TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (3/21) The larger picture may still be congestion between 2380-2359 this week, and the market got closer to the lower end of the trading range on Tuesday. We had major support at 2364.25 this morning and missed that region by 1 tick. If the market breaks 2350 could stall in the 2342-3 region. More likely to hold 2359-60 and recover back to the upside on Tuesday to at least 2373-4.

Until 2350 comes out, we have to assume that the market will go up to 2394 or higher. NQ has been keeping us out of trouble lately and it has to hold 5400 and then still could make new highs to 5477 and 5500 and 5550. We’re starting to sense that the market could hold up until March 23 if it can’t break below 2355 soon.

OVERALL: The new highs on NQ confirmed that what we saw last week was a 4th-wave low and two more high although maybe that will take until early April to complete, which we originally had thought was a low.

BIG PICTURE: If the market doesn’t take off to new highs to 2417 into March 23 or later then we do favor 2321 on cash and have to be short in case more manifests. Seasonally the market is often lower the end of March. The 2520 projection for May is very clearly in the patterns now and wondering if it will happen. We see no point in top-picking.

LONGER TERM: (2/15) Still thinking an early April low and then still new highs this year and not thinking crash this year to 2520 and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% If things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Tuesday; congestive and higher into Thursday March 23; lower March 24 into March 26-27.

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