(6/26) At publication on Saturday, there doesn’t seem to be enough earth-shattering movement to take stocks sharply lower and some positive cycles for stocks kick in the next few weeks, which means that business is happening as usual. There’s a cycle for stocks that usually creates aggressive buy-out bids or takeovers so we wonder if something bigger than Amazon/Whole Foods will happen this week. Meanwhile, approaching summer doldrums and seeing lows for the dollar this week and a recovery next week and oil still in trouble for a few more days.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (6/26) Not much to add to our thoughts from Friday as the market failed to break out of ranges we discussed on Friday between 2430-2438.50. If 2428 can’t come out on some huge news over the weekend, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see a push back up to 2451.50. Minor support at 2431 and 2428 based on latest computer model. If 2409.50 comes in by some miracle, it would be a buy given strength overall now into July 5.
In the big scheme of things, the market cannot break to 2409.50 into early next week, there are some patterns that might allow a retest of 2451.50 and this would make sense if NQ 5826 were to come in. The chances of that happening are more likely earlier next week. Given the inability of this market to fall during weak cycles, I’m not sure we can get that bearish. We’re not even sure that Sunday night is very bearish after finding a new cycle.
We will continue watch NQ 5766 which was a 4th wave target there, and if that continues to hold and the market turns up then NQ could turn to 5826.
OVERALL: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into June 28-29; lower into June 30.
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