FOR MONDAY: (1/30) Cycles look positive on Monday for additional upward action for stocks but the market may still be tiring before Wednesday’s FOMC. We have completed our outlook on the 1st quarter and year and it’s now available.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (1/30) Cycles point toward another thrust higher to 2308.50. Much below 2282 and we’ll get the 25-point correction to 2274 if the higher number doesn’t come in. Still open to 2308.50. Market needs at least 2 more highs to be complete. Hard to press near even numbers like S & P 2300. Still, NQ projects 5181 and 5200 and should hold 5140. Rule is never to top-pick if all 3 indices are in record territory. Cash target of 2332 seems like it needs to complete by early Feb. before we get nervous.
OVERALL: Would think that a 4th-wave congestion of another 25 points will happen the week of Jan. 30-Feb. 2. Still should get a final push up to 2332 on cash.
NEAR TERM: Statistics around elections suggest a rally pausing about 2 weeks after inauguration and that fits with our cycles suggesting an early Feb. high. It’s possible that a key high for the winter could be in by Jan. 30 or Feb 6-10 and that highs into the week of Feb. 6-10 are secondary highs. We’re still open to a major pattern completion on cash at 2332 into early Feb. The last pullback 2nd wave on the weekly chart was a congestive fall over 10 weeks. If that is the case again, it could be that we have a 100-point congestive pullback into the week of April 9.
BIG PICTURE: (1/24) Patterns suggest two new highs to 2330 into early February before we really have to worry about a 100-point pullback that may happen into the spring. Feb. 9-March 30 may be the vulnerable period for that to happen but still could see 2380-2400 this year. If anything, any problems with China are likely to create big economic sneezes around the world and spillover problems, and Europe is a mess this year and contagion may cause problems the 2nd half of the year and possibly in February/March. Those of you looking for a larger fall should focus on August-October but will be disappointed until then.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Monday.
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