FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/12) Trade waiting on Yellen testimony on Wednesday but not expecting much shocking news. Stocks look higher and metals lower and oil lower and dollar lower a few days in congestive downward action. The next key point for financials appears to be into July 18 for a dollar high and metals low and T-note high.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/12) Got a few surprises with Trump Jr. rumors but the trade bought back the dip and the market is back where it needs to be. We have a bias toward seeing 2440 or maybe 2450 on this swing even if took until early next week. Not seeing anything big or inspired to gamble on Janet but in the end she does her job and makes sure Wall Street goes up–and somehow no one is afraid of higher rates because they have been so low for so long and are still absurdly low even if we see 1.5%. We expect a sluggish day today with support at 2419-20 probably being a light buy zone.
WEEKLY CHART: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways to lower Wednesday; higher Thursday; sideways Friday.
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