FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/11) The market is saved by Facebook and X–and who cares about Russia and Syria when the tension about FB ease? Upward momentum likely to continue for US stocks but we‘ll find it hard to chase.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/11) We didn’t think the S & P would breakdown on Tuesday and it didn’t, and it stayed within our suggested zone of 2630-60 with some slippage. We doubt that the market will breakout but the momentum continues to go toward the bulls and a move to 2705. Market needs to hold 2630 and 2620 need to hold on Wednesday and take out 2672 to get to the projected 2705 region. News headlines remain stormy so we’ll continue to see if this market can make through the week without a deep break. The later we get in the month beyond tax day into April 16, the lesser the chances for 2500-2520 to come in.
OVERALL: There’s now a more complex pattern that extends the congestion from last February’s top out longer in time, and that could mean that a rally would go toward 2740 into May and then pull back toward 2580 to compete the congestion.
We have to remember the complex topping action of the years 2007 and 2000, as markets completing major cycles don’t necessarily to V-top– it takes a long time to turn an ocean liner around. The chances for new highs above 2880 are still possible and we had originally targets early June as a chance for that, and it’s still not out of the question if fundamentals come together with trade war and Russian tensions, and they have a much better chance between April 19-June 1. The summer looks messy for war cycles, and seasonals usually don’t support stocks in the summer.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Recovering Wednesday; lower into Friday.
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