FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/14) Grains should hold up into Thursday but may not come down until after Dec. 20-21. For now we have to expect a lot of sideways trade and some bidding until 371 on March corn and 1070 on Jan. beans comes in. Cattle could be higher the rest of the week and hogs are often up on Wednesdays and haven’t fallen apart during the last few days of weakness.Continue reading
Dollar looks lower one more day, gold higher
FOR TUESDAY: (12/13) Market is waiting on FOMC on Wednesday but is the Electoral College vote background noise that is making traders nervous? The dollar looks lower one more day and gold higher. Not seeing weak cycles for stocks on Tuesday but patterns need to go to 2230 this week. T-notes are done in a major way soon at 123.03.Continue reading
Grains should hold up into Thursday
FOR TUESDAY: (12/13) Grains should hold up into Thursday but may not come down until after Dec. 20-21. For now we have to expect a lot of sideways trade and some bidding until 371 on March corn and 1070 on Jan. beans comes in.Continue reading
Stock still looking higher
FOR MONDAY: (12/12) Lately Mondays have been sluggish and that should be the case again before FOMC on Wednesday. Hard to take new positions but seems like we can play 1-2 day pullbacks if we get them. Assuming the trend will continue with stocks higher into at least Dec. 22-23.Continue reading
Looking for another push lower on March corn
FOR MONDAY: (12/12) Assuming that cold weather will be an initial positive for grains as feed usage increases but wondering if the trade will hold up. Going with patterns that suggest selling a 3rd-wave rally and looking for another push lower to 348 on March corn and 1000 on March beans. Hogs are overdone and should come off and cattle should be a buy on cold weather and friendly cycles.Continue reading
S & P may retrace for a few sessions
FOR FRIDAY: (12/9) Europe is out of the way for the week but everyone is a bit beaten up and bruised already. We’re thinking the S & P will retrace for a few sessions but it’s not a major short. Gold may recover a bit to the upside and the dollar will retrace absurd movement from Thursday. Let’s hope we can rest also after an exhausting week.Continue reading
cycles suggest grain bounce on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (12/9) Another USDA report day. Larger cycles suggest a bounce on Friday and market is overdone with pattern completions on beans at 1020-1 and 348.50 on corn at worst. That means at least a 3-wave bounce could come off of those lows. Profit-taking may set in on hogs as upper target has come and too hard to top-pick cattle with the weather.Continue reading
No risk/reward on many markets
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/7) We feel a bit in “limbo-land,” once again waiting on a major report with ECB. The market overreacted on Monday’s bounce and FOMC into Dec. 1 should be a non-event. Even if we wanted to take a position, the risk/reward on many markets isn’t there. Then we have stocks ready to roll to March futures on Thursday and that often creates distress. For now we’ll wait for the morning. There’s a lot tension building out there and a lot of anxiety and a sense that more big/absurd/illogical moves could happen but we have to wait for the right spots.Continue reading
Grains should still be higher for at least one more day
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/7) Grains should still be higher for at least one more day before position squaring sets in before Friday’s USDA report. We are inclined to expect topping action then and for the market to turn lower on Dec. 12-13 and probably into Dec. 15. Meats also look lower next week and the question is whether there will be a clear pattern completion on Thursday to sell meats.Continue reading
Euro breakout possible
FOR TUESDAY: (12/6) Trade waiting on the ECB on Thursday and the feeling is that QE will come to an end and that rate hikes will come eventually and the Euro is happy—and it is very oversold anyway. We have more of a bias for an upward breakout on stocks than a breakdown. There is a sense from currencies that a more significant turn is happening for December and yet we need a few more clues–and the chance for acceleration right away before ECB seems unlikely for the Euro or the dollar.