FOR TUESDAY: (12/6) Trade waiting on the ECB on Thursday and the feeling is that QE will come to an end and that rate hikes will come eventually and the Euro is happy—and it is very oversold anyway. We have more of a bias for an upward breakout on stocks than a breakdown. There is a sense from currencies that a more significant turn is happening for December and yet we need a few more clues–and the chance for acceleration right away before ECB seems unlikely for the Euro or the dollar.
Look to buy minor grain pullbacks
FOR TUESDAY: (12/6) Grains rallied too much on Monday and minor pullbacks can be bought as we should see higher prices this week. Cattle are due for a 1-2 day bounce and also hogs.Continue reading
T-notes due for a 4th-wave bounce
FOR MONDAY: (12/5) Given our experience with Trump and Brexit, how much and how long will markets be impacted by a “No Vote” by Italy and can we be surprised by anything else. I suspect that by the morning session, whatever damage has happened will be negated. If we can, we will put out a report on Sunday afternoon or night. In the end we can only trade patterns and cycles, and patterns suggest that stocks have to eventually go lower this month even if we get a freak bounce first. T-notes are due for a 4th-wave bounce to 125.22 basis March and the dollar should hold 102.22 basis March futures. While these moves look exciting, you have to buy just right and have big pockets. In the end, no one wins in the meat grinder unless you stay up all night and watch and monitor and use trailing stops.Continue reading
Bean patterns look complete
Bean patterns look complete and they lead the complex and may prevent too much more for wheat and corn. We’re moving stops down and will continue to look to take profits and need to be a buyer next week by early Monday if conditions warrant and set up. Cattle continue to issue technical sell signals. Leave hogs alone.Continue reading
Stocks watching European news
FOR FRIDAY: (12/2) Friday’s employment numbers may not mean much with a 98.6% chance for a rate hike Dec. 14 so even a bad number would not have an impact. The Italy vote and Austrian election seem more important for Sunday and given extreme reaction from Brexit and Trump, it’s hard to take anything home over the weekend. Either your top or bottom-pick very key numbers with big stops or stay out of a potential meat grinder where no one wins. Contract rollover to March currencies coming over the weekend and that’s a good reason to be flat there. Hard to imagine stocks blasting to new highs before European news and then we have ECB with an expected taper coming next Thursday. Currencies tend to over-react the most to these events and we’ll have to be flat for the weekend. OPEC good news is off sold off as they inevitably cheat on the agreements or fight later.Continue reading
Cattle cycles weak on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (12/2) We may see end-of-the-week short-covering and bean patterns look complete and they lead the complex and may prevent too much more for wheat and corn. We’re moving stops down and will continue to look to take profits and need to be a buyer next week by early Monday if conditions warrant and set up. Cattle continue to issue technical sell signals and we’ll look to resell here with weak cycles on Friday. Leave hogs alone.Continue reading
Fund buying at first of month
FOR THURSDAY: (12/1) Trade is waiting for employment numbers on Friday, which may not mean much with a rate hike coming anyway and then Italy over the weekend. Hard to imagine stocks blasting to new highs before all that. Currencies tend to over react the most to these events and we’ll have to be flat for the weekend. OPEC good news is off sold off as they inevitably cheat on the agreements or fight later. For now it’s a good thing given that maybe deflation cycles are finally ending. Fund buying at first of the month for stocks can get delayed if it’s too close to employment report but not thinking it matters this month.Continue reading
Weak cycles for grains
FOR THURSDAY: (12/1) Grains faded the OPEC rally and we stuck with shorts but didn’t add to our positions because we’re approaching Dec. 1st and seasonals can turn up here. Normal cycles are weak here. Time to take some partial profits on shorts but still a good chance for lower prices on grains until at least Friday. Cattle continue to hold up but we do expect cattle down on Thursday and will decide what to do with it on Friday if it doesn’t fall much but it looks lower then also. Not sure how to play hogs with the rollover to Feb., which still needs to go higher.Continue reading
Congestion mode continues; Italy vote ahead
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/30) Month-end position squaring should help US stocks come off. Trade has to be nervous about Italy over the weekend and that will increase volatility as we move into the end of the week. Sickly congestion that’s countertrend to last week isn’t giving much to trade but there may be reasons to get long bonds in case something bigger to the upside happens. Continue reading
Month-end position squaring in play
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/30) Grain cycles are still weak into Wednesday and month-end profit-taking should set in and we have contract rollover from the Dec. contracts which go into first notice. Cattle look ready to rollover into Thursday but we rarely like to sell hogs on a Wednesday. Month-end position squaring will also add a new twist to trading on Wednesday.Continue reading