FOR MONDAY: (11/21) We’re moving into holiday trade and each day get worse with lower volume and sometimes exaggerated moves. It looks like metals do short-covering this week and the S & P pulls back to at least 2148-50 but T-notes seem lower all week and the dollar may take a break also.
Grains look lower early next week
FOR MONDAY: (11/21) Grains look lower early next week but seasonals often support pre-Thanksgiving buying so we will have to wait for clues in the morning or top-pick. Cycles do look weak the next few sessions so we may get away with it for beans in particular. Cattle on feed was neutral and market is overbought so we can get short for specs and hedgers. Cold storage is Tuesday for pork.
Volatile grain cycles on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (11/18) Grain cycles are volatile on Friday. Early rallies could give way to sell-offs. Beans look lower on Sunday night and grains could still be lower on Monday but seem to perk up by mid-week. Meats are waiting on the Cattle on Feed report and are a bit overbought so hard to imagine acceleration happening no matter what’s in the report, and we have to sell for a few days. Cold Storage report is on Tuesday.
Can S&P take out 2200?
FOR FRIDAY: (11/18) Speculative cycles are still strong on Friday if acceleration wants to happen. Usually the trade is worn out on Friday and takes profits and gives us a break for a sideways day. People disappear for the holidays so volume should drop next week and trading becomes dangerous sometimes in thin conditions. We’ll probably take profits on short euros and gold and will see if the S & P can take out 2200 but will take partial profits.
Cycles suggest a surprise for stocks
FOR THURSDAY: (11/17) Not sure if Yellen’s testimony will mean much with an expectation for a rate hike in December. Cycles are such that a surprise or Stocks are close to confirming the 5-wave pattern to 2220 and the dollar confirmed the 100.55 but extensions are possible.
Hogs are topping
FOR THURSDAY: (11/17) Usually we can count on grains going lower on Thursday but cycles are particularly volatile so we’ll leave the markets alone and count on pattern completions lower to exit the rest of hedges and to start thinking about buying March contracts. Cattle is getting ready for COF report. Hogs are topping and have to take profits on longs.
Dollar is close to being done at 100.55
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/16) We have some very volatile and speculative cycles happening into Friday and it coincides with Janet Yellen’s testimony so whatever she says, the markets may overreact. Stocks are close to confirming the 5-wave pattern to 2220 and the dollar is close to being done at 100.55 but extensions are possible. Think it will be quiet on Wednesday before the Yellen tornado on Thursday.
Need to buy the new lows or secondary lows
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/16) We warned you about short-covering starting and these transition periods are tricky. Patterns aren’t done but buying may start for those picking bottoms and happy with value. We still have a chance for new lows and pattern completions and can’t do much on Wednesday. Need to buy the new lows or secondary lows, which did not come in. Market looks higher Wednesday with some cycle work suggesting higher prices into Friday while the 29-day cycles suggest a peak Wednesday and a pullback into Friday. Hogs look higher a few days but cattle cycles are rather mixed but look tired and should come off a few days.
Congestion ahead for financial markets
FOR TUESDAY: (11/15) Lots of Fed Speak this week and then waiting for Janet to speak on Thursday is always a congestive delight. Market has a lot to digest after so much activity the last week and we probably should be patient with some markets.
Grain patterns might allow a mid-week bounce
FOR TUESDAY: (11/15) Continue to move stops down on corn spec and hedge positions. Patterns might allow a mid-week bounce and final lows by Friday/Monday, which is when seasonal lows come. Cycles for cattle and hogs are mixed this week but the 16-year cycle is hitting and last time it had the market lower.