FOR THURSDAY: (12/1) Trade is waiting for employment numbers on Friday, which may not mean much with a rate hike coming anyway and then Italy over the weekend. Hard to imagine stocks blasting to new highs before all that. Currencies tend to over react the most to these events and we’ll have to be flat for the weekend. OPEC good news is off sold off as they inevitably cheat on the agreements or fight later. For now it’s a good thing given that maybe deflation cycles are finally ending. Fund buying at first of the month for stocks can get delayed if it’s too close to employment report but not thinking it matters this month.Continue reading
Weak cycles for grains
FOR THURSDAY: (12/1) Grains faded the OPEC rally and we stuck with shorts but didn’t add to our positions because we’re approaching Dec. 1st and seasonals can turn up here. Normal cycles are weak here. Time to take some partial profits on shorts but still a good chance for lower prices on grains until at least Friday. Cattle continue to hold up but we do expect cattle down on Thursday and will decide what to do with it on Friday if it doesn’t fall much but it looks lower then also. Not sure how to play hogs with the rollover to Feb., which still needs to go higher.Continue reading
Congestion mode continues; Italy vote ahead
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/30) Month-end position squaring should help US stocks come off. Trade has to be nervous about Italy over the weekend and that will increase volatility as we move into the end of the week. Sickly congestion that’s countertrend to last week isn’t giving much to trade but there may be reasons to get long bonds in case something bigger to the upside happens. Continue reading
Month-end position squaring in play
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/30) Grain cycles are still weak into Wednesday and month-end profit-taking should set in and we have contract rollover from the Dec. contracts which go into first notice. Cattle look ready to rollover into Thursday but we rarely like to sell hogs on a Wednesday. Month-end position squaring will also add a new twist to trading on Wednesday.Continue reading
Congestion likely on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (11/29) GDP and many other reports on Tuesday may get the markets moving again and then OPEC on Wednesday. At this point selling stocks and buying bonds and selling the dollar and buying gold are countertrend to the trends but that may be all there is for scalp traders going into the end of the month. We often see a big flourish early in the week and then congestion into the employment report, and that’s probably what will happen on Tuesday.Continue reading
Grain cycles still weak into Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: (11/29) Grain cycles are still weak into Wednesday and month-end profit-taking should set in and we have contract rollover from the Dec. contracts which go into first notice. Meats are acting toppy also and we need secondary highs to get better risk/reward for new sales but they seem vulnerable to fall. Continue reading
S&P cash projects 2211
FOR FRIDAY: (11/25) Markets do not really close much because of Asian and European trading so expect to come back to some movement and you can watch until noon on Thursday morning and again at 5 pm on Thursday night if you are bored with your Thanksgiving dinner. Not much to add to Wednesday’s report but we’ll update you on Friday morning. We’re working on our monthly report and hope to get it complete by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Continue reading
Open to selling grains
FOR FRIDAY: (11/25) We’re looking for grains to start lower on Friday and continue into early next week. We’re open to selling if the right prices and pattern completions happen and exiting by Nov. 30. Hogs have one more day up and then are lower next week. Cattle should start lower for at the next 2 weeks east and possibly the whole month. Continue reading
Even thinner volume before holiday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/23) Even thinner volume on Wednesday and Friday likely and only day-traders pick up a few points on these days. As always, some huge flourish after the holidays but until then, not much happening.
Hogs look higher on friendly report
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/23) Grains look higher as do hogs on a friendly storage report and cattle may hold up. Friday seems more vulnerable for selling grains and meats if you are inclined and early next week is mixed. Holiday trading is always a mess and usually we can live without it.