FOR MONDAY: (11/7) We continue to wait for more shoes to drop but now Fox News is taking the “indictment” strength out of the Clinton Foundation scandal. All this stuff takes an incredible amount of time to process so it may be naive to think that we’ll get quick answers and resolutions. Lately Mondays have been sideways and this one is before the election. Cycles look more positive going into next week for many markets that have been overdone so it may be hard to press things too much more. We continue to see a Hillary win and relief rally for stocks this week and that may be good for the dollar and bad for gold.
Harvest pressure continues for grains
FOR MONDAY: (11/7) Expecting that harvest pressure on Sunday will continue to press grains although they are holding up fairly well. I suspect we can still be short 2-3 more days before short-covering before the USDA report hits.
The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry weather next week, which would allow for a rapid finish to the harvest, which as of Sunday was 75% done. The 75% matched the five-year average but was behind last year’s 82%.
On Tuesday, USDA will update its crop production and yield numbers. Private firms expect a minor reduction a corn crop then of 15.052 billion on an average yield of 173.3 bpa. USDA currently is at 15.057 billion and 173.4 bpa
Markets oversold amid election tensions
FOR FRIDAY: (11/4) The truth is out there but who will report it? The news media has been owned and been supporting Hillary as proven by Wikileaks emails from John Podesta. The internet is filled with rumors from people trying to influence their friends. And we remain waiting for the FBI and Comey who seem to want the truth and justice but the political pressure are enormous. There’s a sense that what will come out will be bigger than Watergate and will be one of the biggest scandals in history but when will it happen? Markets are oversold and biting their nails and we are with them. We sense that the nature of electronic voting and history of vote rigging (see Bev Allen’s award-winning documentary from HBO, “Hacking Democracy” on you tube) will not create any definitive end to the farce but Wall Street may have an oversold bounce if we are correct about an apparent Hillary win on Tuesday. Stay tuned. It’s not over until the Fat Lady Sings. (We are for neither candidate but for truth and fighting corruption.)
Continue to sell rallies
FOR FRIDAY: (11/4) There’s a volatile cycle for Friday. Last year it went lower but we have seen it go wildly up some years so watch for unexpected news and wild ranges. Given harvest pressure, any rallies continue to need to be sold.
The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry weather next week, which would allow for a rapid finish to the harvest, which as of Sunday was 75% done. The 75% matched the five-year average but was behind last year’s 82%.
Next Tuesday, USDA will update its crop production and yield numbers. Private firms expect a minor reduction a corn crop then of 15.052 billion on an average yield of 173.3 bpa. USDA currently is at 15.057 billion and 173.4 bpa.
Crude lower into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (11/3) Weak cycles overnight inclines us to sell and take profits quickly in the morning for the S & P. Crude looks lower into Friday and T-note higher so we’ll buy dips there. Dollar needs a 2-day bounce before it can be resold.Continue reading
Grains in trouble
FOR THURSDAY: (11/3) Grains were much weaker than we feared and even if we have a stronger night session, we still think the market is in trouble. Oil had its biggest build-up of inventories in 34 years and that is not good news for bio-fuel, and crude should easily fall to 40.00. Hogs should hold up a few more days but cattle patterns look complete with a pullback possible. Continue reading
Hogs may finish a 2-day correction
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/2) Grains turned lower today after our concerns last night and broke key levels on corn with even Nov. beans finally taking out 985. We could see grains recovering for a day before harvest pressure takes over again. Hogs may finish a 2-day correction and then a buy is setting up into Friday. Continue reading
Positive cycles on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (11/1) Usually we don’t like to be caught short on the first day of the month and cycles are positive on Tuesday and trade will sometimes buy before a dovish/no hike report on Wednesday. Otherwise we may get a boring repeat of Monday except for the Bank of Japan and their press conference overnight. Continue reading
Cattle probably in trouble rest of the week
FOR TUESDAY: (11/1) Fund buying at the first of the month may set in but grains hardly budged on Monday and we continue to be surprised how well they have held up. Cycles peak overnight and we still would expect a setback into Wednesday but this market is tricky and we can’t get too married to what we think will happen. Hogs should hold up one more day and cattle are probably in trouble the rest of the week.
Still room for more downward action
FOR MONDAY: (10/31) The FBI reopening of E-mail gate has pundits talking a Trump election means stocks down 10%. Our work has been looking for S & P 2000 into December so maybe that will be the case. We still suspect there are many more surprises coming before and after the election and the market won’t like the uncertainty. For now, stocks keep ratcheting lower and we’re inching toward the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Usually the Monday before the FOMC meeting is a low and it’s also the last day of the month this time so still room for more downward action.