FOR FRIDAY: (11/11) Happy Veteran’s Day! Only the bond market is affected but the Fed. Reserve is on holiday so everything is delayed clearing. We often see congestion setting in on Friday before a weekend break and profit-taking setting in. Bonds are due for short-covering and also crude could. Dollar and euro are quieter on Friday. Super Moon and the closest moon to the earth since 1948 may create more big surges come Monday. Still, the world and most of us are ready for a rest from a very long week. Honor our beloved military by donating to some of their favorite charities and hopefully Trump will fulfill his promises to them as they have been victimized by lack of care from Veteran’s hospitals.
Grains continue to disappoint
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) We had suggested the need to sell rallies today/Thursday but we didn’t get anything after the USDA report and we had gotten stopped out of beans on the freaky rally on Tuesday. Will be harder to chase but usually you sell the Nov. USDA report and get out before Thanksgiving and there is still time left. Still disappointing how this market has its bizarre rhythms sometimes.
Looking to sell rallies
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) We had suggested the need to sell rallies today/Thursday but we didn’t get anything after the USDA report and we had gotten stopped out of beans on the freaky rally on Tuesday. Will be harder to chase but usually you sell the Nov. USDA report and get out before Thanksgiving and there is still time left. Still disappointing how this market has its bizarre rhythms sometimes.
Volatility is high
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) Now that a Trump win is behind us and everything is back to normal, we can go back to regular trading as if nothing has happened? No, but still hard to do anything overnight. China is unraveling a bit and volatility is high so have to wait for the morning. After a knee-jerk reaction, cycles are back to performing as they were supposed to this week. Just a little hiccup on Tuesday night. Continue reading
Trump surprise roils markets
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/9) Back to drawing board after the Trump surprise.
Funds confound patterns and fundamentals
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/9) Funds through a monkey wrench into patterns and fundamentals on Tuesday and that leaves us wondering how to trade on Wednesday, another USDA report day. Will it really mean much? Soybeans had the largest gains of the three crops amid fund buying after recent export business and higher vegetable oil markets. Corn and wheat posted modest gains, with corn finishing at a one-week high. Rain lingers in the eastern Midwest today after which dry conditions should prevail for most of the country through Thursday. The fall harvests are winding down with USDA late on Monday reporting corn harvest at 86% done and soybeans at 93%. Developing dry conditions in the central Plains are gaining attention for wheat. The condition of winter wheat in Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma slipped in Monday’s weekly crop progress report. The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry conditions for those states.
Messy cycles ahead
FOR TUESDAY: (11/8) The FBI lifting the latest Email investigation is a game changer but not a confirmation for victory. Our bias has been for a Clinton victory based on the fact that stocks appear to want to lift off after the election. That has now started earlier. The larger issue is that a President can’t be impeached for crimes they have done before they were in office and it seems difficult to think that the FBI will push through Clinton Foundation investigations and get indictments so quickly. There are also NYPD investigations to the Wiener tie that are unlikely to be dropped. Given that cycles still suggest a mess from about the middle of November until Christmas, I suspect disorder for the US financial markets won’t be over even if we get a relief rally on Wednesday-Monday. The Clinton campaign is very concerned about a Wikileaks bombshell today and Julian Assange has promised one if she doesn’t resign. That may prevent any early celebrations and any such event could lead to overnight gaps being filled if we get something but we are running out of time. One supercomputer that accurately predicted all the primaries has Trump winning so there are still surprises in store. Hard to hold anything overnight and if you want to bet on Wednesday’s results, you will have to use options or ETFs and have defensive strategies if you’re wrong.
Grains sideways before USDA report
FOR TUESDAY: (11/8) Market sideways before USDA report. More inclined toward a bearish USDA on Wednesday and may not get a lot happening Tuesday. We would take partial profits if 341.50 came in corn. Cattle look lower one more day but then will be harder to press shorts. Wednesday, the USDA will update its crop production and yield numbers. Private firms expect a minor reduction a corn crop then of 15.052 billion on an average yield of 173.3 bpa. USDA currently is at 15.057 billion and 173.4 bpa. Happy Election Day. As Time Magazine put on its cover, “The End is Near” and the double entendre is particularly apt. Let’s pray for peace and prosperity from whatever new government is formed.
Cycles look more positive next week
FOR MONDAY: (11/7) We continue to wait for more shoes to drop but now Fox News is taking the “indictment” strength out of the Clinton Foundation scandal. All this stuff takes an incredible amount of time to process so it may be naive to think that we’ll get quick answers and resolutions. Lately Mondays have been sideways and this one is before the election. Cycles look more positive going into next week for many markets that have been overdone so it may be hard to press things too much more. We continue to see a Hillary win and relief rally for stocks this week and that may be good for the dollar and bad for gold.
Harvest pressure continues for grains
FOR MONDAY: (11/7) Expecting that harvest pressure on Sunday will continue to press grains although they are holding up fairly well. I suspect we can still be short 2-3 more days before short-covering before the USDA report hits.
The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry weather next week, which would allow for a rapid finish to the harvest, which as of Sunday was 75% done. The 75% matched the five-year average but was behind last year’s 82%.
On Tuesday, USDA will update its crop production and yield numbers. Private firms expect a minor reduction a corn crop then of 15.052 billion on an average yield of 173.3 bpa. USDA currently is at 15.057 billion and 173.4 bpa