FOR TUESDAY: (11/15) Lots of Fed Speak this week and then waiting for Janet to speak on Thursday is always a congestive delight. Market has a lot to digest after so much activity the last week and we probably should be patient with some markets.
Grain patterns might allow a mid-week bounce
FOR TUESDAY: (11/15) Continue to move stops down on corn spec and hedge positions. Patterns might allow a mid-week bounce and final lows by Friday/Monday, which is when seasonal lows come. Cycles for cattle and hogs are mixed this week but the 16-year cycle is hitting and last time it had the market lower.
Crazy speculative cycles this week
FOR MONDAY: (11/14) There’s a 16-year cycle peaking this week which we last saw around Y2K in Jan. 2000. It can be seen in large democratic or humanitarian societal movements which seek to alleviate social injustice. It’s manifesting now with the riots against Trump but there also riots in Europe. Yet, without a firm peaceful foundation aligned with higher principles, movements like this tend to backfire and become ineffective and dangerous. These cycles can be quite unconscious, eliciting violent, confusing, incoherent, and disintegrating shadow forces. Like Y2k when we were all convinced the world was going to end because of computer glitches and it turned into a subconscious hoax, it feels like everyone is spinning the Trump victory into the end of the world or the best thing since white break. We are somewhere in between. This week, speculative cycles are very crazy so if you thought last week was crazy, there’s more coming. We have to continue to play patterns and look for the completion of energy points. Thinking last week’s trend will continue into Wednesday or Thursday and then a shift will start by Friday.
Cycle lows due by first hour of trading
FOR MONDAY: (11/14) Cycle lows due by the first hour of trading and then we may get short-covering before the progress weekly report. Tuesday is unclear and we will continue to monitor patterns. Seasonal lows are due this week and buying usually happens before Thanksgiving. Continue reading
Bonds due for short-covering
FOR FRIDAY: (11/11) Happy Veteran’s Day! Only the bond market is affected but the Fed. Reserve is on holiday so everything is delayed clearing. We often see congestion setting in on Friday before a weekend break and profit-taking setting in. Bonds are due for short-covering and also crude could. Dollar and euro are quieter on Friday. Super Moon and the closest moon to the earth since 1948 may create more big surges come Monday. Still, the world and most of us are ready for a rest from a very long week. Honor our beloved military by donating to some of their favorite charities and hopefully Trump will fulfill his promises to them as they have been victimized by lack of care from Veteran’s hospitals.
Grains continue to disappoint
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) We had suggested the need to sell rallies today/Thursday but we didn’t get anything after the USDA report and we had gotten stopped out of beans on the freaky rally on Tuesday. Will be harder to chase but usually you sell the Nov. USDA report and get out before Thanksgiving and there is still time left. Still disappointing how this market has its bizarre rhythms sometimes.
Looking to sell rallies
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) We had suggested the need to sell rallies today/Thursday but we didn’t get anything after the USDA report and we had gotten stopped out of beans on the freaky rally on Tuesday. Will be harder to chase but usually you sell the Nov. USDA report and get out before Thanksgiving and there is still time left. Still disappointing how this market has its bizarre rhythms sometimes.
Volatility is high
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) Now that a Trump win is behind us and everything is back to normal, we can go back to regular trading as if nothing has happened? No, but still hard to do anything overnight. China is unraveling a bit and volatility is high so have to wait for the morning. After a knee-jerk reaction, cycles are back to performing as they were supposed to this week. Just a little hiccup on Tuesday night. Continue reading
Trump surprise roils markets
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/9) Back to drawing board after the Trump surprise.
Funds confound patterns and fundamentals
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/9) Funds through a monkey wrench into patterns and fundamentals on Tuesday and that leaves us wondering how to trade on Wednesday, another USDA report day. Will it really mean much? Soybeans had the largest gains of the three crops amid fund buying after recent export business and higher vegetable oil markets. Corn and wheat posted modest gains, with corn finishing at a one-week high. Rain lingers in the eastern Midwest today after which dry conditions should prevail for most of the country through Thursday. The fall harvests are winding down with USDA late on Monday reporting corn harvest at 86% done and soybeans at 93%. Developing dry conditions in the central Plains are gaining attention for wheat. The condition of winter wheat in Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma slipped in Monday’s weekly crop progress report. The 6- to 10-day outlook favors warm, dry conditions for those states.