FOR FRIDAY (10/21) Harvest-friendly weather may have played a role with forecasters calling for dry days in the Midwest into the weekend. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 25-29) does put rain back in the Midwest then along with above-normal temperatures. We thought we could hold out another day to sale but beans got within ¼ cent of 990 and corn couldn’t get through the key Gann number of 360. We like to wait for reversals before top-picking and we’ll get short tonight now that they are clearly in for corn and cycles looking weaker next week. Cattle and hogs should be sideways before the USDA reports.
Four major financial market turns over the weekend
OR MONDAY: (10/17) We continue to move toward 4 major financial market turns over the weekend so changes of trend next week for higher gold and lower dollars has to be paid attention to. We do expect some huge event involving leadership or govt. over the weekend that will be a surprise given hourly headlines. Lack of confidence in leadership and government are strongest for the year from Sunday into the end of the month. Earthquake and violence cycles are stronger and cycles are very powerful for US government transformation. Will Obama have the leadership to push us out of this election mess or will he continue to threaten Russia to take attention away from Wikileaks? Trump is too strong and will not back down and not sure Hillary knows who she is fighting. Last few years, the markets have gone up the last few weeks of October but this is an election year so maybe more like 2008, which was a down October.
Cattle and hogs may bottom on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (10/17) Weather continues to be an impediment for Midwest farmers with rain through the weekend in the region. The 6- to 10-day outlook, however, reduces rain amounts in the western Midwest next week. Exports have continued to be supportive. We think harvest pressure will hit the market for a few days but it still may hold up into Friday. Cattle and hogs may bottom on Monday and turn up into Wednesday at least. Can’t get too bearish but may wait until Tuesday to buy.
Trend changes for higher gold, lower dollars next week
FOR FRIDAY: (10/14) Now the US will decide about its involvement in Syria on Friday in a further show of ‘ego-based’ stupidity. We continue to move toward 4 major financial market turns over the weekend so changes of trend for higher gold next week and lower dollars next week has to be paid attention to. We do expect some huge event involving leadership or govt. over the weekend that will be a surprise. At the moment, Friday looks more like sloshy position squaring at the end of the week.
Open to slightly higher grain prices on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (10/14) Wheat was the big story on Thursday and it was a very unusual day that surprised us. Wheat export business included Egypt buying Black Sea wheat, Saudi Arabia in the market for nearly 600,000 metric tons, and Japan buying some U.S. wheat. Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans should have dry weather today and tomorrow in most of the Midwest. Rain is forecasts for western Iowa on Friday. But, the seven-day and 6- to 10-day outlooks still favor rain for the region. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 18-22) still favors above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Cycles are not there but would be open to slightly higher prices on Friday before harvest pressure kicks in so a gift for sellers and hedgers.
Gold remains under pressure
FOR THURSDAY: (10/13) Stock market looks weak overnight and in the early part of the morning. We’re counting on more crazy world news to pressure this market but if nothing happens it will probably recover. Next week looks more challenging. Still feels like there is some unraveling around the corner. Gold remains under pressure. Very possible that the low 1270’s area won’t come in now and that the market will ratchet lower to the 1240 region.
Open to selling recoveries in cattle
FOR THURSDAY: (10/13) Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans should have dry weather on Thursday. More rain arrives in Iowa on Friday. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 17-21) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Not many surprises in the USDA report and a typical October reaction and we see grain weakness into Sunday. Open to selling recoveries in cattle but may not get them as that market is also sick.
Volatile cycles starting early
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/12) Tuesday was a big surprise but we’re understanding that volatile cycles are starting earlier now and may last until the end of the month. Ideally we would love to see stocks bottom overnight and then have nowhere to go as we’re more positive than negative for stocks for Wednesday and need a 3-wave bounce. Starting to sense that things are going to unravel the rest of the month with lots of shocking events and we’re starting to research this and see some of coming so stay tuned.
Cattle may bounce from oversold conditions
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/12) For Wednesday’s crop report, participants in trade surveys expect USDA to trim the corn crop in that report and slightly raise the soybeans. Cycles look lower into Monday and any rallies on Wednesday will be a gift for cash selling and hedging. Hogs should hold up at least one more day and cattle may bounce from oversold conditions and set up better sales later. Rain is expected in much of the Midwest today and tomorrow, but drier weather should follow by the weekend. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 16-20) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country.
Crude close to major resistance target
FOR TUESDAY: (10/11) We still like the stock market this week and would buy dips overnight and we may get a rebalancing of Monday’s dull trade on Tuesday with a lower dollar and higher foreign currencies for a day, and that may push gold up for another sale. Silver cycles look buoyant and we wouldn’t sell for a few days. Crude close to major resistance target of 5250 should come in shortly for top-pickers.