FOR TUESDAY: (10/11) The weekly grain inspections report and weekly crop progress will be released on Tuesday. Rain has entered Midwest forecasts for this week and next week, which is a change from the hot, dry pattern that had been expected. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 12-19) has transitioned to a wet but warm pattern for the Midwest. The trade is on hold waiting for the reports and without higher prices, we have no risk/reward to jump on shorts. Cycle repeat from Sept. 2-3 should be lower the next few days for grains and we have a chance to get better prices to sell if we’re patient.
Looking to buy stocks for next week
Lately Mondays have been a throw-a-way day that’s either countertrend on the week or too sluggish. Not seeing anything dramatic this weekend but we want to buy stocks for next week and do one last sale in metals if they bounce to the right spots. Oil will be a major sale near 5220-5250 when it comes in.
Have to wait for better levels to sell and hedge
FOR MONDAY: (10/10) We’re moving toward Wednesday’s USDA report which could hardly add any good news now that the market is overbought and harvest pressure is mounting. Still, we have to wait for better levels to sell and hedges and hope the market can get higher once again. At some point we may have to get aggressive from lower levels just to get something on for the next fall into Oct. 17.
Cycles particularly volatile on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (10/7) Another employment report day. Cycles are particularly volatile and that means the head fake and then the end of the week profit-taking. For now it seems a higher dollar and then a pullback and higher stocks and then a pullback and lower bonds and then a recovery and lower metals and then a recovery. The counter-trend bounces may be significant for traders and scalpers and we will have to wait for next set-ups.
Cattle cycles suggest lower early and recovering on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (10/7) Farmers in the Midwest will dodge rain the next two days while harvesting corn and soybean, but should have drier weather after that. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 11-15) is for a warm and drier pattern for the region. Corn came off a bit more than we expected but we have higher prices on Friday. Looking to sell beans at 989 but it may take until Sunday to get up there. Cattle cycles suggest lower early and recovering on Friday.
Cycles look weak Thursday and Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (10/6) Trade waiting on Friday’s employment report. Cycles look weak for Thursday and Friday and we expect stocks to sell off. Other markets may be more congestive waiting for the news. Still, we wonder if the trade will ignore a weak number and rally the market and indications are that we will get a weak number if ADP and ISM service meant anything today.
Willing to buy key support on wheat
FOR THURSDAY: (10/6) Not sure we learned too much on Wednesday except people are willing to buy key support on wheat near 390 and there is value there. Otherwise it was a wash day of non-significance. Rain will plague the Midwest corn and soybean harvests this week, with severe storms expected on Thursday from Kansas to Iowa, but the 6- to 10-day outlook favors a warm and drier pattern for the region. Traffic on the Mississippi River should return to normal as the Army Corps of Engineers on Wednesday reopened the only lock that closed due to the high water that spilled out of Iowa. Wheat was sharply higher on Moroccan purchases.
Wednesday best day for a stock market bounce
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/5) Lots of tensions building as in Russian/US relations over Syria and Deutsche Bank insolvency and now the EU wants to start letting go of QE. Guccifer released more damning Clinton Foundation data but you will have to dig to find it in a media that is owned and operated by the oligarchy. S & P already at lower end of the trading range increases the chances for much lower prices into Friday/Sunday. Wednesday seems like the best day for a stock market bounce. Unclear what kind of fun surprises are coming but fear and tensions cycles do peak over the weekend so expect a climax around Syria and other tensions.
Grains and cattle rally to continue one more day
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/5) Commodity Weather Group reports that rain continues to plague the Midwest harvest with forecasts putting severe storms in Kansas and Nebraska today and flash flood warnings from Oklahoma to Minnesota. Rain lingers on Wednesday with more storms in Kansas on Thursday and flash flood warnings from Kansas to Iowa. So far there have been only minor disruptions to Mississippi River traffic. The Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday said the one Mississippi River lock that is closed should reopen tomorrow.
Inclined to think that the rally for grains and cattle will continue one more day. Hard to do countertrend buys on the grains and have to bank profits on cattle longs as things disappear quickly in that market.
Sloppy week ahead
FOR TUESDAY: (10/4) China is gone all week for Golden Week and while Germany will come back and trade will wander back from the Jewish New Year, we still may have a sloppy week. We’re very open to a crisis meltdown toward the end of the week but we never want to use the word crash. The oligarchs are good at keeping their fingers in the dike and a recent article noted that they have enough cash to keep the game and QE going another 4 years! By next Sunday we will favor a seasonal buy on stocks and at the moment they’re not giving us much of a pullback to play.