FOR FRIDAY: (10/14) Wheat was the big story on Thursday and it was a very unusual day that surprised us. Wheat export business included Egypt buying Black Sea wheat, Saudi Arabia in the market for nearly 600,000 metric tons, and Japan buying some U.S. wheat. Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans should have dry weather today and tomorrow in most of the Midwest. Rain is forecasts for western Iowa on Friday. But, the seven-day and 6- to 10-day outlooks still favor rain for the region. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 18-22) still favors above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Cycles are not there but would be open to slightly higher prices on Friday before harvest pressure kicks in so a gift for sellers and hedgers.
Gold remains under pressure
FOR THURSDAY: (10/13) Stock market looks weak overnight and in the early part of the morning. We’re counting on more crazy world news to pressure this market but if nothing happens it will probably recover. Next week looks more challenging. Still feels like there is some unraveling around the corner. Gold remains under pressure. Very possible that the low 1270’s area won’t come in now and that the market will ratchet lower to the 1240 region.
Open to selling recoveries in cattle
FOR THURSDAY: (10/13) Farmers harvesting Midwest corn and soybeans should have dry weather on Thursday. More rain arrives in Iowa on Friday. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 17-21) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country. Not many surprises in the USDA report and a typical October reaction and we see grain weakness into Sunday. Open to selling recoveries in cattle but may not get them as that market is also sick.
Volatile cycles starting early
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/12) Tuesday was a big surprise but we’re understanding that volatile cycles are starting earlier now and may last until the end of the month. Ideally we would love to see stocks bottom overnight and then have nowhere to go as we’re more positive than negative for stocks for Wednesday and need a 3-wave bounce. Starting to sense that things are going to unravel the rest of the month with lots of shocking events and we’re starting to research this and see some of coming so stay tuned.
Cattle may bounce from oversold conditions
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/12) For Wednesday’s crop report, participants in trade surveys expect USDA to trim the corn crop in that report and slightly raise the soybeans. Cycles look lower into Monday and any rallies on Wednesday will be a gift for cash selling and hedging. Hogs should hold up at least one more day and cattle may bounce from oversold conditions and set up better sales later. Rain is expected in much of the Midwest today and tomorrow, but drier weather should follow by the weekend. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 16-20) has more rain for the Midwest and above-normal temperatures for most of the country.
Crude close to major resistance target
FOR TUESDAY: (10/11) We still like the stock market this week and would buy dips overnight and we may get a rebalancing of Monday’s dull trade on Tuesday with a lower dollar and higher foreign currencies for a day, and that may push gold up for another sale. Silver cycles look buoyant and we wouldn’t sell for a few days. Crude close to major resistance target of 5250 should come in shortly for top-pickers.
Grain cycles lower next few days
FOR TUESDAY: (10/11) The weekly grain inspections report and weekly crop progress will be released on Tuesday. Rain has entered Midwest forecasts for this week and next week, which is a change from the hot, dry pattern that had been expected. The latest 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 12-19) has transitioned to a wet but warm pattern for the Midwest. The trade is on hold waiting for the reports and without higher prices, we have no risk/reward to jump on shorts. Cycle repeat from Sept. 2-3 should be lower the next few days for grains and we have a chance to get better prices to sell if we’re patient.
Looking to buy stocks for next week
Lately Mondays have been a throw-a-way day that’s either countertrend on the week or too sluggish. Not seeing anything dramatic this weekend but we want to buy stocks for next week and do one last sale in metals if they bounce to the right spots. Oil will be a major sale near 5220-5250 when it comes in.
Have to wait for better levels to sell and hedge
FOR MONDAY: (10/10) We’re moving toward Wednesday’s USDA report which could hardly add any good news now that the market is overbought and harvest pressure is mounting. Still, we have to wait for better levels to sell and hedges and hope the market can get higher once again. At some point we may have to get aggressive from lower levels just to get something on for the next fall into Oct. 17.
Cycles particularly volatile on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (10/7) Another employment report day. Cycles are particularly volatile and that means the head fake and then the end of the week profit-taking. For now it seems a higher dollar and then a pullback and higher stocks and then a pullback and lower bonds and then a recovery and lower metals and then a recovery. The counter-trend bounces may be significant for traders and scalpers and we will have to wait for next set-ups.