Author: admin

FOR TUESDAY: (9/27) Storms are moving across the eastern Midwest this morning, their punch diminishing as the system moved east. Maps over the next seven days indicate little behind that front, which should increase the pace of harvest after a somewhat slow start. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts call for above average precipitation in the western half of the growing region, with the east drier.

Growers reporting lower average corn yields though soybeans are coming in good, with concerns about weather damage noted for both crops. Corn needs to take out 327 to project 323 and 320 into Wednesday’s low and then we have to deal with the short-covering rally before stocks report.

FOR MONDAY:  (9/26) Weather forecasts continue to call for a wet weekend that will delay harvest in some areas. October outlook is for bouts of rain which will make harvest a challenge for producers across the Midwest. Still, while storms continue to fall across parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley, maps over the next seven days turned drier for the eastern Midwest and official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts also show less rain for the eastern two-thirds of the growing region. Early week rallies on rain concerns are eroding.

We show grains lower into at least Wednesday and then maybe short-covering may develop before the stocks report. We would take partial profits on multiples. Cold storage had a 132% year over year increase in pork belly storage but month to month totals were not bad. Cattle on Feed report showed a larger placement on feed than expected and marketings were higher than expected. This may help the unrealized pattern completions from this week come in on Monday for sales and hedges

FOR FRIDAY: (9/23) Not much really happened on Thursday to give us many new clues but we should continue to stay below highs put in on Wednesday and at some point a harvest break will come. Usually the Sept. stocks report is not very important and can’t think that the trade will be sideways a week waiting for it.

Downpours and flash flooding were reported in parts of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota overnight and more rain is due there the next few days. Clear skies east of there likely had combines in the fields. The seven-day and 6- to 10-day forecasts are wet for Iowa and Minnesota. This still may be too small an area to worry about. Trade waiting now for COF reports and quarterly hog and pig report on Sept. 30 so not much action coming there. Cold storage on Friday after the close may also release pent up energy. (For details and recommendations see our full Timer.)

FOR THURSDAY: (9/22) By Thursday we have a number of forces that should finally create a strong harvest reversal. Continue to accumulate shorts. Cattle could hold up 1 more days but feeders are struggling and we won’t sell Dec. hogs without a price completion. Rain continues to hinder the Midwest corn and soybean harvests with severe storms in Iowa and eastern Nebraska today and rain lingering there through Friday. The seven-day and 6- to 10-day are wet for the Midwest with the 6- to 10-day also showing above-normal temperatures there.

Outside markets were a little supportive with equities and crude oil higher and the dollar lower. The Federal Reserve said a rate increase was likely by the end of the year. It said the U.S. economy and job market are doing well. Crude oil got a lift from a weekly government report showing a drop in U.S. supplies.  (For details and recommendations see our full timer.)

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/21) Grains could hold up one more day and rarely fall strongly on Wednesday. By Thursday we have a number of forces that should finally create a strong harvest reversal. Continue to accumulate shorts. Cattle should hold up 1-2 more days but feeders are struggling and not selling Dec. hogs without a price completion.

FOR TUESDAY: (9/20) Storms over the weekend focused on the southern half of the growing region, while rains early in the week return to the upper Midwest before another front moves in from the west. Maps for the next seven days keep the eastern Corn Belt mostly dry. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts out yesterday remain wet with a cooling trend in the west though the latest updates this morning are warmer for the period. Grain patterns to the upside would still look more complete if 342 on Dec. corn, 993 on Nov. beans at 416-8 on Dec. wheat came in. If you need to sell or hedge, we will hold out the next few days for those areas. Cattle should hold up a few more days and then congest into the COF report. Waiting for higher hog prices to be selling and that may take a few more days.