Author: admin

FOR THURSDAY (9/8) Storms are moving across the Midwest this week with flash flood warnings posted for parts of Iowa and Illinois today and for Kansas, Missouri and Illinois on Thursday and Friday. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Sept 12-16) favors normal to above-normal rains for much of the Midwest with below-normal temperatures for western two-thirds of the country. As we move into Friday, we do expect more pressure to the downside unless trade is afraid of too much rain in the Midwest, and that seems unlikely. Meats had a strong recovery day as we expected. We do expect them to move lower on Thursday and Friday as deflationary cycle is due to hit.

FOR WEDNESDAY (9/7) Storms moved through Iowa and eastern Nebraska later on Tuesday, with local forecasts in Iowa calling for 2 to 3 inches of rain overnight. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Sept 11-15) favors normal to above-normal rains for the Midwest with below-normal temperatures for Iowa and normal to above-normal heat for Illinois and east. Progress reports were bearish and market now a bit overbought and at key pattern completions. As we move into Friday, we do expect more pressure to the downside and it probably will start Wednesday unless trade is afraid of too much rain in the Midwest, and that seems unlikely.

FOR TUESDAY (9/6) Grains continue their rebounds and may hold up into Monday night. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with drier weather in the Midwest the next few days. Hot, wet conditions are forecast there next week. Tropical storm Hermine is moving across northern Florida and is expected to track north along the Eastern Seaboard and bring heavy rain to the Carolinas. Ample global wheat supplies have kept pressure on prices. Forecasts keep rain in the central Plains next week, which should help the winter wheat that will be planted this fall.

Trade could congest into the Sept 12 crop report but so often final harvest pressure hits it thereafter. We are bearish most of next week. Hogs may hold up if Carolina rains inhibit marketings and that state and Iowa  contain 43.1% of the United States hog inventory. Cattle needs to bounce a few days and hit key support.

FOR FRIDAY: (9/2) Corn managed its bounce rather quickly and may set up a decent sale.  Cotton is more threatened by the hurricane over the weekend but funds needed some reason to take profits. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with drier weather in the Midwest the next few days. Hot, wet conditions are forecast next week there. The tropical storms currently moving across Florida will bring rain to much of the east coast in the next few days. Grains do reopen on Monday night at 7 pm after the Labor Day holiday but meats of course won’t reopen until Tuesday morning.  Fortucast will publish reports on late Monday afternoon for the reopen on Monday night.

FOR THURSDAY: (9/1) Grains aren’t bouncing and seem lower next week also. Need a 2-day bounce to get short for next week. Grains do reopen on Monday night at 7 pm after the Labor Day holiday but meats of course won’t reopen until Tuesday morning. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with showers moving across the Midwest this week. Hot conditions arrive next week along with rain across the western portion of the belt. The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to track northeast across Florida and southern Georgia rand away from crop areas in the Delta. Export sales are positive but no one cares. Hogs look lower on Thursday but did not rally enough for a good risk/reward and cattle are back to being normal after being overdone so quickly.