FOR FRIDAY: (9/2) Corn managed its bounce rather quickly and may set up a decent sale. Cotton is more threatened by the hurricane over the weekend but funds needed some reason to take profits. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with drier weather in the Midwest the next few days. Hot, wet conditions are forecast next week there. The tropical storms currently moving across Florida will bring rain to much of the east coast in the next few days. Grains do reopen on Monday night at 7 pm after the Labor Day holiday but meats of course won’t reopen until Tuesday morning. Fortucast will publish reports on late Monday afternoon for the reopen on Monday night.
Higher dollars, lower Notes on Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (9/1) Markets waiting for employment numbers and people will start heading for the exits soon before the long holiday weekend. Not sure first of the month fund buying will mean much before employment and long weekends. Cycles and patterns suggest higher dollars and lower notes on Friday and lower gold and lower crude oil continuing. Cycles are very volatile going into the long weekend and we may get some short-covering on oversold markets by Sunday and Monday.
Grains look lower next week
FOR THURSDAY: (9/1) Grains aren’t bouncing and seem lower next week also. Need a 2-day bounce to get short for next week. Grains do reopen on Monday night at 7 pm after the Labor Day holiday but meats of course won’t reopen until Tuesday morning. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with showers moving across the Midwest this week. Hot conditions arrive next week along with rain across the western portion of the belt. The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to track northeast across Florida and southern Georgia rand away from crop areas in the Delta. Export sales are positive but no one cares. Hogs look lower on Thursday but did not rally enough for a good risk/reward and cattle are back to being normal after being overdone so quickly.
Gold close to a major breakdown
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/31) Markets waiting for employment numbers and people will start heading for the exits soon before the long holiday weekend. Dollar remains strong and Stanley Fischer seems like he wants to keep it that way by getting rid of talk of one and done. Gold is close to a major breakdown and we’re thinking it will happen and oil cycles are weak until Sept. 9 also, and it could break harder than many think.
Hogs up one more day
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/31) Grains didn’t turn up yet but are still in a place for a short-covering rally although at this point it will not mean much. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans, with showers moving across the Midwest this week. Hot conditions arrive next week along with rain across the western portion of the belt. The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to track north along Florida and remain clear of crop areas in the Delta. Cattle finally reversed and should be up a few days now until Friday and hogs continue to hold up and could be up one more day but can be sold on Thursday into Friday in case they come off strongly.
Stocks, gold, crude turning lower
FOR TUESDAY: (8/30) There is a cycle that often causes changes of trend for markets on Tuesday. We think some of the movement on Monday was just retracing Friday’s craziness, and gold and stocks should turn lower again and also crude. Dollar cycles point higher, and that may be the case if we are right on gold. We will be patient.
Grains due to turn up on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (8/30) Grains are due to turn up on Tuesday from overnight lows. Buying is countertrend but something to do if you’re looking to play that way. Hogs still look higher for a few more days and cattle lower at least one more day. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with showers moving across the Midwest this week. Hot conditions arrive next week along with rain across the western portion of the belt. The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to track north along Florida and remain clear of crop areas in the Delta.
Treacherous week ahead
FOR MONDAY: (8/29) There was really nothing in Yellen’s speech to cause that much volatility but nothing has happened for 2 weeks and the markets unwound and bet on a sooner rate hike. Next week we have volatile action before the employment report. We’re crunching cycles for Sept. and are more bearish stocks and T-notes now and have to be friendly the dollar for a few weeks. Volatility cycles and surprise cycles increase into Thursday so expect a treacherous week.
Grain cycles lower one more day
FOR MONDAY: (8/29) Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with wet conditions this week in the Midwest and hot conditions next week with some rain. The National Hurricane Center says there is a less than 40% chance that a storm building in the Caribbean will reach Louisiana. There had been talk earlier in the week such storm could disrupt corn harvest and impede river traffic there. Grain cycles look lower one more day but should short-cover into Friday and we don’t know on what news.
Do we have to jump on rallies into Friday for new hedging and cash sales? Probably. Might get away with waiting on the USDA report but we will know more next week. Cattle are in big trouble now and still could be lower 1-2 more days before a bounce. Seasonals are against feeders in Sept. but turn up for hogs and we are out of hog hedges and spec. sales.
Metals unraveling
FOR FRIDAY: (8/26) We often get point/countertpoint reactions when Yellen unleashes. Sometimes you get a quick reaction and then end of the week profit-taking sets in. Usually it’s difficult to outsmart computer ALGOS but we can take positions at key place in patterns. We think stocks have finally issued a sell signal for the 4th wave and doubt there’s more than 2140-48 for the S & P. Metals are unraveling and are still vulnerable into Monday so it may be much worse than expected. Dollar is so subject to surprises and has become a bit crazy but we’ll hold out with a big stop and see if the downward pattern unfolds.