FOR THURSDAY: (8/25) There is a trigger cycle for the fear cycle of the week on Thursday but will it get delayed until Friday because of Janet? We think stocks have finally issued a sell signal for the 4th wave and doubt there’s more than 2140 for the S & P. Metals are unraveling and are still vulnerable into Friday so it may be much worse than expected. Dollar is so subject to surprises and has become a bit crazy but patterns and cycles point lower into Friday.
Hogs still weak a few more days, cattle an aggressive sale
FOR THURSDAY: (8/25) Wire reports say the scouts found healthy Illinois corn and soybean crops with yields and pod counts above last year. Crop tour findings will be scrutinized to determine if USDA’s big crop and yields are doable. Stress from dry conditions hurt corn in Indiana and Ohio. Wire reports say Illinois surveys found a good, but not great, crop. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with cool, wet conditions this week in the Midwest, but warm and wet conditions next week. Severe storms move through southern Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois today before dissipating by Thursday. However, rain lingers in the Midwest.
We are ready to take profits on shorts but thinking that markets may be down even through Friday–and if there is a buy, it will be Monday. Hogs still look weak a few more days and cattle are an aggressive sale as they are rather oversold but still probably down at least 1 more day.
Dollar lower into Friday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/24) There is a key 29-year cycle that is rare peaking overnight. It has often been correlated with major world catastrophes and last time we saw it in 1986, it was connected to Chernobyl but there was a delayed reaction. For now the trade is focusing on Janet and more free money. We crunched cycles carefully and T-notes seem higher into Friday and suggest Janet will be dovish. The dollar seems clearly lower into Friday, and that correlates but will the trade be that happy to get free money for the stocks so close to 2200 on the S & P. We’re now thinking metals are lower into Monday.
Grains grains correct into Friday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/24) Crop tours in the Midwest are finding some minor problems in corn and soybeans, but apparently nothing serious enough to raise doubts about USDA big numbers for both crops. Also the tours move to Iowa and Illinois later this week where conditions are better. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with cool, wet conditions due in the Midwest this week and warm, wet conditions next week. Severe storms do develop in Nebraska and Iowa today and then develop in Kansas and Missouri on Wednesday.
We could easily see grains correct into Friday before coming back next week. Hopes for recoveries are based in hot and dry July weather eventually hurting weights but that may be more for the Eastern belt and the Midwest may not be hurt as much. In the end, the next push up will have to be sold. We have to do some research on freeze cycles this year. It’s been a while since there has been a freeze, and that may be the only hope for higher prices past late August or early Sept.
Continue to trade patterns and cycles
FOR TUESDAY: (8/23) Not sure we learned much from Monday’s action except that the trade is only really caring about Fed Governor remarks and has all those ALGOS programmed pretty well to kill traders standing in the way. Indecisive cycles have a chance to break hard the next few days but possible all will wait for Janet on Friday. We will continue to trade pattern and cycles as we see it.
Grains due for 2-3 day pullback
FOR TUESDAY: (8/23) Grains are overbought and due for a setback and there‘s nothing positive in the weekly reports. Would expect a 2-3 day pullback. Cattle should be up 1-2 more days and hogs look lower next week and not sure month to month declines in cold storage can save year to year stats.
Dollar due to fall next week
FOR MONDAY: (8/22) Mondays in the summer have been rather quiet and uneventful. Cycles turn more volatile and geopolitical energy is picking up with Russia threatening to invade Ukraine. Dollar is due to fall next week and we need to buy gold on pullbacks. Oil should peak Monday and be lower much of the week.
Grains may hold up 1 more day
FOR MONDAY: (8/22) Grains may hold up for 1 more day and some upward patterns aren’t complete to 1027 on Nov. beans and 352 on Dec. corn and 452 on Dec. wheat. We’re open to selling starting early Tuesday if the market reaches those levels. Weather forecasts are favorable for corn and soybeans with cool, wet conditions due in the Midwest next week. Severe storms develop in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa on Friday with flash flood warnings posted for central Kansas. Cattle on Feed was mildly bearish and may be faded for a few days from oversold conditions. Hogs are waiting for cold storage late Monday.
Fortucast Financial Video Magazine, Aug. 19
Weaker prices next week
FOR FRIDAY: (8/19) Possible week-end profit-taking will set in but investment bankers aren’t giving up on buying dips no matter how close the market gets to 2200 on the S & P. We still have a bias toward weaker prices into next week and there is a reliable cycle after August 25 that should finally tire the market even if it holds up a few more days. Not expecting a whole lot to do for Friday.