Grains grains correct into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/24) Crop tours in the Midwest are finding some minor problems in corn and soybeans, but apparently nothing serious enough to raise doubts about USDA big numbers for both crops. Also the tours move to Iowa and Illinois later this week where conditions are better. Weather forecasts remain favorable for corn and soybeans with cool, wet conditions due in the Midwest this week and warm, wet conditions next week. Severe storms do develop in Nebraska and Iowa today and then develop in Kansas and Missouri on Wednesday.

We could easily see grains correct into Friday before coming back next week. Hopes for recoveries are based in hot and dry July weather eventually hurting weights but that may be more for the Eastern belt and the Midwest may not be hurt as much. In the end, the next push up will have to be sold. We have to do some research on freeze cycles this year. It’s been a while since there has been a freeze, and that may be the only hope for higher prices past late August or early Sept.

Continue to trade patterns and cycles

FOR TUESDAY: (8/23) Not sure we learned much from Monday’s action except that the trade is only really caring about Fed Governor remarks and has all those ALGOS programmed pretty well to kill traders standing in the way. Indecisive cycles have a chance to break hard the next few days but possible all will wait for Janet on Friday. We will continue to trade pattern and cycles as we see it.

Grains due for 2-3 day pullback

FOR TUESDAY: (8/23) Grains are overbought and due for a setback and there‘s nothing positive in the weekly reports. Would expect a 2-3 day pullback. Cattle should be up 1-2 more days and hogs look lower next week and not sure month to month declines in cold storage can save year to year stats.

Dollar due to fall next week

FOR MONDAY: (8/22) Mondays in the summer have been rather quiet and uneventful. Cycles turn more volatile and geopolitical energy is picking up with Russia threatening to invade Ukraine. Dollar is due to fall next week and we need to buy gold on pullbacks. Oil should peak Monday and be lower much of the week.

Grains may hold up 1 more day

FOR MONDAY: (8/22) Grains may hold up for 1 more day and some upward patterns aren’t complete to 1027 on Nov. beans and 352 on Dec. corn and 452 on Dec. wheat. We’re open to selling starting early Tuesday if the market reaches those levels. Weather forecasts are favorable for corn and soybeans with cool, wet conditions due in the Midwest next week. Severe storms develop in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa on Friday with flash flood warnings posted for central Kansas. Cattle on Feed was mildly bearish and may be faded for a few days from oversold conditions. Hogs are waiting for cold storage late Monday.

Weaker prices next week

FOR FRIDAY: (8/19) Possible week-end profit-taking will set in but investment bankers aren’t giving up on buying dips no matter how close the market gets to 2200 on the S & P. We still have a bias toward weaker prices into next week and there is a reliable cycle after August 25 that should finally tire the market even if it holds up a few more days. Not expecting a whole lot to do for Friday.

Grain cylces may be inverting

FOR FRIDAY: (8/19) We went into the week with a bias for a retracement into the end of the week and we could easily get profit taking. Still, cycles may be inverting and if the grains hold up into Sunday, they may start retracing early next week. Cattle will do short-covering before Cattle on Feed, and hogs have no risk/reward until we get a 3-wave rally that may not come in.

Selling dollars, buying metals

FOR THURSDAY: (8/18) Markets are tricky with schizophrenic FOMC governors playing games and jerking markets around. FOMC minutes seemed more hawkish than expected but the market took it the other way. We’re hoping jerky markets stop but for now they’re challenging. Getting to a point where we can be selling dollars and buying metals over the next few days; stocks continue to act toppy.

Grain cycles turn lower Thursday/Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (8/18) Severe storms may develop in South Dakota and Minnesota on Thursday and then in Nebraska and Iowa on Friday. Midwest weather turns cooler next week with rain likely. Rain lingers in Louisiana then but the heavier amounts move north. Recent rain and flooding in that state slowed exports as it slowed vessel loading.

Grain cycles turn lower Thursday and Friday and profit-taking may set in markets are near pattern completions at 1027 on Nov. beans and 342 on Dec. corn. Cattle still look lower into early Friday but COF report should create some short-covering. Hogs may also do short-covering into their reports.