Negative report could create oversold conditions

FOR FRIDAY: (8/12) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next seven days with the largest amounts in the dry areas of Indiana and Ohio. Severe storms move through Iowa today and rain could linger in the Midwest on Friday. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Aug.16-19) has hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest.

A strong rally in crude is supportive for the complex but it may give back gains next week. Grains will most likely have more of a negative reaction on Friday and that will give us oversold conditions to buy for the rest of the month by early next week.

For Friday’s USDA report, private firms expect expects corn crop of about 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa.

Cycles likely to trigger deeper falls Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (8/11) The dollar’s sharp fall on Tuesday night created a bit of a panic for us and we had one of the worst trading days of the year as we didn’t see it coming. Regrouping here. Stocks continue to act toppy. Cycles are more likely to trigger deeper falls in many markets on Thursday and stocks may finally issue a deeper sell signal.

Cycles volatile for Friday’s report

FOR THURSDAY: (8/11) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next seven days, with the largest amounts in the dry areas of Indiana and Ohio. Severe storms move through parts of the eastern Dakotas today before dissipating. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Aug.15-18) has hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then, with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest.

For Friday’s USDA report, private firms expect expects corn crop of about 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa.

Not much to do on Thursday. Cycles for Friday seem volatile so will stay open to see lower pattern completed with a very bearish report.

Stocks could hold up one more day

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/10) Stocks could hold up one more day and patterns to the downside may not be done for metals until Monday. The most bullish pattern would allow at least S & P 2140 and then new highs while we have been targeting at least 2100 into August 19. Big picture for gold still suggests 1325 and possibly 1312 before the next push up.

Pre-report paralysis for grains

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/10) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next few days, with severe storms likely in parts of the Dakotas. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.14-18) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then, with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest. Attention remains on Friday’s USDA crop report. Farm Futures’ farmer corn and soybean survey produced a corn crop estimate of 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa. August summer markets are hardly worth trading and pre-report paralysis makes it even worse so unless we can buy or sell very key support areas, there’s little reason to play.

Wheat and beans are better values

FOR TUESDAY: (8/9) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest early this week. Highs in the mid-90s are expected in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this week, but forecasts show highs will be in the 80s by the weekend. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.13-17) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains, with below-normal chances for rain in the Dakotas and normal chances for much of the Midwest. Seasonally, one buys grains this week. Hard to buy corn but wheat and beans are better values. Cattle still look lower 1-2 more days and hogs higher into Thursday.

S & P has not issued a sell signal

FOR TUESDAY: (8/9) S & P has not issued a sell signal and these topping patterns can stretch out more. Thursday/Friday seems like there will be a larger chance for a break and Wednesday doesn’t look great either. Still willing to sell silver and gold and crude is a buy now on the breakout. Dollar sill should do a secondary high.

Employment report a game-changer?

FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Was the employment report a game changer? Too early to tell. While some profit-taking will set in on Monday from overdone conditions, we may not know right away–and if no breakdowns/breakouts happen, we have to stay open for pattern completion on many of the markets rather than getting stuck with a key weekend cycle turn here. Still, a fear cycle tends to dominate next week and it may trigger exaggerated action. Deeper pattern completions to 1312 on gold, 1887 on silver and 129.60 on the pound and higher to 9757 on the dollar have us thinking that maybe S & P 2218 has a chance if we don’t get a big breakdown soon.

Grain cycles lower on Monday

FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday but there was not enough definitive movement for us to feel totally safe. Cycles for grains point lower into Monday but not sure we will stick around much after the USDA weekly report. Cattle look like they need to retrace on Monday/Tuesday and hogs look higher.