FOR MONDAY: (8/15) In typical fashion the trade took profits on the bearish report and the worst may be over now. USDA expects a record 15.15 billion bushel corn crop, a 4.06 billion soybean crop and 2.32 billion bushels of wheat. The corn and soybean numbers topped all forecasts in some pre-market surveys and sent corn futures to contract lows before they recovered. National Weather Service notes current forecasts favor rain and mild temperatures through next week. Heavy rain is expected in the Ohio River Valley the next few days and has the National Weather Service posting flash flood warnings for southern Indiana and Ohio.

The 6- to 10-day outlook (Aug.16-19) has normal to above-normal temperatures for the Midwest and northern Plains with above-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest. Usually grains recover in August and cycles are a bit more bearish on Sunday than Monday, that may give us a chance to get in.

FOR FRIDAY: (8/12) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next seven days with the largest amounts in the dry areas of Indiana and Ohio. Severe storms move through Iowa today and rain could linger in the Midwest on Friday. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Aug.16-19) has hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest.

A strong rally in crude is supportive for the complex but it may give back gains next week. Grains will most likely have more of a negative reaction on Friday and that will give us oversold conditions to buy for the rest of the month by early next week.

For Friday’s USDA report, private firms expect expects corn crop of about 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa.

FOR THURSDAY: (8/11) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next seven days, with the largest amounts in the dry areas of Indiana and Ohio. Severe storms move through parts of the eastern Dakotas today before dissipating. The 6- to 10-day outlook (Aug.15-18) has hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then, with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest.

For Friday’s USDA report, private firms expect expects corn crop of about 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa.

Not much to do on Thursday. Cycles for Friday seem volatile so will stay open to see lower pattern completed with a very bearish report.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/10) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next few days, with severe storms likely in parts of the Dakotas. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.14-18) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then, with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest. Attention remains on Friday’s USDA crop report. Farm Futures’ farmer corn and soybean survey produced a corn crop estimate of 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa. August summer markets are hardly worth trading and pre-report paralysis makes it even worse so unless we can buy or sell very key support areas, there’s little reason to play.

FOR TUESDAY: (8/9) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest early this week. Highs in the mid-90s are expected in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this week, but forecasts show highs will be in the 80s by the weekend. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.13-17) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains, with below-normal chances for rain in the Dakotas and normal chances for much of the Midwest. Seasonally, one buys grains this week. Hard to buy corn but wheat and beans are better values. Cattle still look lower 1-2 more days and hogs higher into Thursday.