FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/10) Stocks could hold up one more day and patterns to the downside may not be done for metals until Monday. The most bullish pattern would allow at least S & P 2140 and then new highs while we have been targeting at least 2100 into August 19. Big picture for gold still suggests 1325 and possibly 1312 before the next push up.
Pre-report paralysis for grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/10) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest the next few days, with severe storms likely in parts of the Dakotas. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.14-18) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains then, with below-normal chances for rain for much of the Midwest. Attention remains on Friday’s USDA crop report. Farm Futures’ farmer corn and soybean survey produced a corn crop estimate of 14.59 billion bushels at 168.6 bpa and a soybean crop of 3.865 billion at 46.65 bpa. USDA currently has corn at 14.54 billion bushels and 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.88 billion at 46.7 bpa. August summer markets are hardly worth trading and pre-report paralysis makes it even worse so unless we can buy or sell very key support areas, there’s little reason to play.
Wheat and beans are better values
FOR TUESDAY: (8/9) Forecasts keep rain in parts of the Midwest early this week. Highs in the mid-90s are expected in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this week, but forecasts show highs will be in the 80s by the weekend. The 6- to 10-day (Aug.13-17) puts hot weather in the northern Midwest and northern Plains, with below-normal chances for rain in the Dakotas and normal chances for much of the Midwest. Seasonally, one buys grains this week. Hard to buy corn but wheat and beans are better values. Cattle still look lower 1-2 more days and hogs higher into Thursday.
S & P has not issued a sell signal
FOR TUESDAY: (8/9) S & P has not issued a sell signal and these topping patterns can stretch out more. Thursday/Friday seems like there will be a larger chance for a break and Wednesday doesn’t look great either. Still willing to sell silver and gold and crude is a buy now on the breakout. Dollar sill should do a secondary high.
Financial market update of Aug. 8
Employment report a game-changer?
FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Was the employment report a game changer? Too early to tell. While some profit-taking will set in on Monday from overdone conditions, we may not know right away–and if no breakdowns/breakouts happen, we have to stay open for pattern completion on many of the markets rather than getting stuck with a key weekend cycle turn here. Still, a fear cycle tends to dominate next week and it may trigger exaggerated action. Deeper pattern completions to 1312 on gold, 1887 on silver and 129.60 on the pound and higher to 9757 on the dollar have us thinking that maybe S & P 2218 has a chance if we don’t get a big breakdown soon.
Grain cycles lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday but there was not enough definitive movement for us to feel totally safe. Cycles for grains point lower into Monday but not sure we will stick around much after the USDA weekly report. Cattle look like they need to retrace on Monday/Tuesday and hogs look higher.
Stocks likely to hold up on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/5) Another employment report day. We have a bias for stocks holding up but any surprise news might change the verdict, as cycles look like they will weaken next week. Battling computer ALGOS is often tricky so we’ll have to go with pattern and looking closely at cycles into Sunday.
Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/5) Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday and willing to sell if we have a good risk/reward. Cattle are hooking lower and may be down into the middle of next week and hogs are too oversold to be chasing. We have to stay open to 323 on Dec. corn into Monday still but a buy should finally set up by then for the August rally–but it will be sickly.
Fortucast Financial Video Magazine
Fortucast Financial Video Magazine for the week of August 4th, 2016. Topping action for US stock market and more.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=-8aCdFHbM1M