Volatility likely to increase into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/14) Volatility likely to increase into Friday and Nov. 25, and more of it looks bearish than bullish. Crude still needs to go to 4980 at some point and the S & P to 2600. Have to see how risk/reward sets in as we come to the morning.Continue reading

Crude drags grains lower

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/14) Grains failed as crude collapsed over 4.00 and dragged corn and beans lower. We are not seeing wildly bearish action for grains on Wednesday but if we get failed secondary highs, we may feel better about shorts for the rest of the week. Also need higher numbers for cattle and feeders if we are to get a better risk/reward.Continue reading

Tuesday should be best chance for stocks

FOR TUESDAY: (11/13) We looked closely at stocks cycles and most of them point lower into the Thanksgiving holiday and a few days afterwards into Nov. 27. We’re focusing on sales by Nov. 14 at the earliest. Dollar has a good chance to reach upper target of 9770 and 9825. Gold is a lower channel support and much under 1195 and timber will happen.Continue reading

Wheat surge offers little spillover

FOR TUESDAY: (11/13) Wheat prices got a big lift to start the week from a round of short-covering that was partially fueled by some domestic and global weather worries, plus some increasing export optimism for U.S. grains. We could get some upward momentum from it carrying into corn and holding beans up for a few more days.Continue reading

Stocks cycles point mostly lower into Thanksgiving

FOR MONDAY: (11/12) We looked closely at stocks cycles and most of them point lower into the Thanksgiving holiday and a few days afterwards into Nov. 27. We’re focusing on sales by Nov. 14 at the earliest. Dollar has a good chance to reach upper target of 9694.Continue reading

China concerns weighing on ag markets

FOR MONDAY: (11/12) Concerns about China are weighing on ag markets, as their growth is faltering and the reality of the Chinese losses are clear in the USDA reports. Winter wheat is losing ground on more moisture, and early winter snows in some areas are supportive. We need to continue to sell rallies in hogs and cattle, as those markets look lower next week.Continue reading

S&P looks lower Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (11/9) End of a tense week. Stocks look lower and we should sell rallies on gold and silver, and crude should be done and start a recovery for at least a week.Continue reading

Grains point higher next 1-2 days

FOR FRIDAY: (11/9) Wild ranges on grains are not definitive for providing too many new clues. We see upward action for at least 1-2 days and we’ll see how they act. Some cycles point higher into next Friday. Data is mixed and we worry about seasonals, which are lower into Thanksgiving. Cattle and hogs need to be sold on strength but are still a bit too oversold although that may be remedied soon.Continue reading

Stocks overbought but not done

FOR THURSDAY: (11/8) We always have a bit of paralysis before FOMC. Stocks are overbought but not done until 2863-66 or 2874 comes in. Logic suggests a recovery for the dollar to 9640-50 but will it hold? Gold isn’t acting well and we may throw out cycles, which are friendly into Friday, and assume it won’t take much to break this market.Continue reading