Grains could hold up until Monday

FOR FRIDAY: (10/12) We got our oversold bounce on grains, as the report estimates came in not as badly as expected. Grains could hold up until Monday. Still, we’re going into a harvest weekend and rains are diminishing but how much can fields dry out? Some of the cycles point higher into Monday but we’ll wait for the morning to see what develops.Continue reading

S&P cash patterns suggest rubber-band bounce to 2880

FOR THURSDAY: (10/11) Usually when the US spills, China and Europe follow overnight and then it snowballs for the US in the morning. We still sense that the market can recover out of this mess but have to leave it alone overnight and see what develops. A fall pullback for stocks would be healthy, and the first leg lower may be done by Oct. 26, then a bounce, and then a secondary low into early December.Continue reading

Beans have issued a sell signal

FOR THURSDAY: (10/11) We have a negative reaction due for grains for Thursday but they are rather oversold already and harder to chase, and the market should recover off of any dips on Thursday. Cattle due for a bounce and will stick with hog shorts for Thursday.Continue reading

S&P didn’t breakout enough to confirm it’s done

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/10) We have been hopeful for a recovery for a few days or a week and so far, we have only secondary lows and not new lows but much under 2860 on S & P cash and we will fall another rung. We missed Hurricane Michael in the news until late and that would prevent crude from breaking down to the lower rung but they often sell those hurricane rallies when things aren’t as bad as expected, and it’s moving more toward Florida and may not be as much of a threat. Treasury notes seem lower the rest of the week. We got short gold on the rally overnight but missed silver.Continue reading

Our bias: a negative reaction to WASDE

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/10) There are more cycle lows than highs this week, and we do have Thursday’s USDA report, which looks like it will come in as a cycle low. Usually safer to sell key number and pattern completions, which is 372 on Dec. corn. Not sure we’ll get it. Cattle still in trouble, as are hogs.Continue reading

Gold issued a clear sell signal

FOR TUESDAY: (10/9) We’ll have to see how post-holiday energy settles but stocks are oversold and should continue to bounce and maybe even for a week. Gold issued a clear sell signal and the dollar still looks higher; crude needs to go to 7190.Continue reading

Still open to selling pattern completion on corn

FOR TUESDAY: (10/9) There are more cycle lows than highs this week, and we do have Thursday’s USDA report, which looks like it will come in as a cycle low. Weekly reports are delayed until 3 pm Tuesday because of Columbus Day. Thinking that action may be too sickly this week to make money but we’re open to seeing grains hold up into Monday if they get through a down day for Thursday’s report. Usually safer to sell key number and pattern completions, which is 372 on Dec. corn.Continue reading

Crude oil looks mostly lower next week

FOR MONDAY: (10/8) Quasi-Holiday with Columbus Day and a banking holiday, and cash bonds and currencies are closed in the US. If stocks don’t crash on Sunday or early Monday, we have a bias for a recovery. We have both the dollar and gold higher next week and think the dollar be the correct one higher and wouldn’t buy gold. Crude oil looks mostly lower also and T-notes may bottom quickly at 117.05 and be done for the week.Continue reading

Cycle low for grains into WASDE

FOR MONDAY: (10/8) There are more cycle lows than highs this week, and we do have Thursday’s USDA report, which looks like it will come in as a cycle low. Markets are probably sales Sunday/Monday because key numbers are in and the trade may stall.Continue reading