FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/10) There are more cycle lows than highs this week, and we do have Thursday’s USDA report, which looks like it will come in as a cycle low. Usually safer to sell key number and pattern completions, which is 372 on Dec. corn. Not sure we’ll get it. Cattle still in trouble, as are hogs.Continue reading
Gold issued a clear sell signal
FOR TUESDAY: (10/9) We’ll have to see how post-holiday energy settles but stocks are oversold and should continue to bounce and maybe even for a week. Gold issued a clear sell signal and the dollar still looks higher; crude needs to go to 7190.Continue reading
Still open to selling pattern completion on corn
FOR TUESDAY: (10/9) There are more cycle lows than highs this week, and we do have Thursday’s USDA report, which looks like it will come in as a cycle low. Weekly reports are delayed until 3 pm Tuesday because of Columbus Day. Thinking that action may be too sickly this week to make money but we’re open to seeing grains hold up into Monday if they get through a down day for Thursday’s report. Usually safer to sell key number and pattern completions, which is 372 on Dec. corn.Continue reading
Crude oil looks mostly lower next week
FOR MONDAY: (10/8) Quasi-Holiday with Columbus Day and a banking holiday, and cash bonds and currencies are closed in the US. If stocks don’t crash on Sunday or early Monday, we have a bias for a recovery. We have both the dollar and gold higher next week and think the dollar be the correct one higher and wouldn’t buy gold. Crude oil looks mostly lower also and T-notes may bottom quickly at 117.05 and be done for the week.Continue reading
Cycle low for grains into WASDE
FOR MONDAY: (10/8) There are more cycle lows than highs this week, and we do have Thursday’s USDA report, which looks like it will come in as a cycle low. Markets are probably sales Sunday/Monday because key numbers are in and the trade may stall.Continue reading
S&P looks lower into Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (10/5) Cycles for overnight and into the employment report are edgy, and the S & P could quickly fall to 2884-5. Still, a violent recovery could happen next week so the surprise may be another bear trap. We’re in topping territory but these markets rarely do V-tops. Lower T-notes on tap and higher dollar for Friday could lead to a gold collapse. We often get surprises and any huge miss of the whisper number of 500,000, and the market may give it up.Continue reading
Grain cycles for rest of October look lower
FOR FRIDAY: (10/5) Grains held up well on Thursday. We’re OK putting in buy for beans from lower levels but wheat isn’t close enough to ideal buy zone of 510. We looked at Oct. grain cycles. Open to the market holding up next week but it’s harvest time and not sure we can count on much. Cycles in the rest of October seem lower. Have to continue to use rallies to get short.Continue reading
Mixed cycles next few days
FOR THURSDAY: (10/4) Trade didn’t like Powell’s hawkish tone, and bonds sold off heavily and stocks followed. Cycles are mixed the next few days but we have had a bias toward a retracement into Friday and that has to have us concerned. If it’s not severe, we‘re still open to 2960 into next week. Usually these hawkish Fed comments snowball overnight in Europe and Asia so higher prices for the dollar still coming if you trade at night.Continue reading
Tricky fighting harvest pressure
FOR THURSDAY: (10/4) Not thrilled with grain action on Wednesday and we see beans lower and it could drag the rest of the complex down. If grains hold up ok on Thursday, we could still see a recovery on Friday. Still, it’s tricky fighting harvest pressure, which could kick in quickly if rains let up.Continue reading
S&P looks higher into Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/3) Lots of Fed Speak on Wednesday and trade congesting into Friday’s employment report. Coming up to a lot of turns and will be hard for stocks to go up too much past next week. The dollar looks like it will run out of steam and oil also while metals look like they have early life, which is contra-seasonal.Continue reading