FOR FRIDAY: (10/5) Cycles for overnight and into the employment report are edgy, and the S & P could quickly fall to 2884-5. Still, a violent recovery could happen next week so the surprise may be another bear trap. We’re in topping territory but these markets rarely do V-tops. Lower T-notes on tap and higher dollar for Friday could lead to a gold collapse. We often get surprises and any huge miss of the whisper number of 500,000, and the market may give it up.Continue reading
Grain cycles for rest of October look lower
FOR FRIDAY: (10/5) Grains held up well on Thursday. We’re OK putting in buy for beans from lower levels but wheat isn’t close enough to ideal buy zone of 510. We looked at Oct. grain cycles. Open to the market holding up next week but it’s harvest time and not sure we can count on much. Cycles in the rest of October seem lower. Have to continue to use rallies to get short.Continue reading
Mixed cycles next few days
FOR THURSDAY: (10/4) Trade didn’t like Powell’s hawkish tone, and bonds sold off heavily and stocks followed. Cycles are mixed the next few days but we have had a bias toward a retracement into Friday and that has to have us concerned. If it’s not severe, we‘re still open to 2960 into next week. Usually these hawkish Fed comments snowball overnight in Europe and Asia so higher prices for the dollar still coming if you trade at night.Continue reading
Tricky fighting harvest pressure
FOR THURSDAY: (10/4) Not thrilled with grain action on Wednesday and we see beans lower and it could drag the rest of the complex down. If grains hold up ok on Thursday, we could still see a recovery on Friday. Still, it’s tricky fighting harvest pressure, which could kick in quickly if rains let up.Continue reading
S&P looks higher into Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/3) Lots of Fed Speak on Wednesday and trade congesting into Friday’s employment report. Coming up to a lot of turns and will be hard for stocks to go up too much past next week. The dollar looks like it will run out of steam and oil also while metals look like they have early life, which is contra-seasonal.Continue reading
Grains mostly higher into Friday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/3) Grains look mostly higher into Friday but beans could dip on Thursday. Have to favor long cattle and not sure what to do with hogs.Continue reading
Open to S&P 2960 and 2992
FOR TUESDAY: (10/2) Usually the week of the employment report in congestive in wide ranges and not a great week to play. We’ll continue to try to peel off profits and not get greedy.Continue reading
Cycle lows for grains on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (10/2) Grains have cycle lows on Tuesday but just retracing exaggerated gains from Monday. Have to assume higher prices into Friday now and buy dips on grains.Continue reading
Lot of turns on the weekly chart ahead
FOR MONDAY: (10/1) First of the month fund buying should start. Research on the 12-year cycle that kicks in mid-October suggests lower dollars for a year and higher metals, and we’re starting to sense that the Oct. seasonals for stocks may fail unless 2950 isn’t taken out early in the week. Lot of turns coming on the weekly chart in the next few weeks, and we’ll continue to report as we complete more research.Continue reading
Beans probably a buy by Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (10/1) USDA’s quarterly stocks report was the main driver in grain markets on Friday, delivering mostly bearish news. Corn futures tumbled more than 2% by Friday’s close, with soybeans down more than 1%. The agency’s stock report had more bullish news for wheat, but those futures also ended around 0.5% lower amid some quarter-end liquidation. Grains look lower Monday and probably into part of Tuesday but may recover the rest of the week.Continue reading