FOR THURSDAY: (9/27) Not sure we learned much from the FOMC meeting except that the market was overbought and end of the month profit-taking is needed. Still, Oct. seasonal buying isn’t far away and they will jump on buying the corrections over the next few days. Doubt that the political circus on Thursday will have any impact on the confirmation and we can all wait on the next scandal to keep us entertained and keep CNN ratings up. Where is Walter Cronkite when you need him?Continue reading
Cycles for Thursday point lower
FOR THURSDAY: (9/27) Trade waiting on Friday’s USDA reports. Those reports are also happening at the end of the month when funds square position and before a harvest weekend. Cycles for Thursday look potentially lower so the trade may cash in their chips. Cattle may hold up all day but we will move stops up.Continue reading
Favoring higher dollars into Friday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/26) Another FOMC meeting. They usually buy them, and that should be the case overnight and into before the announcement but starting to sense a fall after the announcement into Thursday. We do favor higher dollars into Friday, and that should mean we have to sell gold in the morning and silver despite heroics today.Continue reading
Hogs still looking higher for a few days
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/26) We had a bullish grain cycle into Wednesday and didn’t get out of short beans fast enough or reverse. Still should be up on Wednesday but may get more volatile, and bean reversal was a bit ugly already. Hogs are still higher a few days, as are cattle.Continue reading
Tuesday before FOMC usually higher
FOR TUESDAY: (9/25) The Tuesday before FOMC is often higher although a rate hike is already priced in so it shouldn’t have much impact. The issue will be how many more rate hikes they project, with Deutsche Bank seeing 5 more by the end of 2019. There are a lot of cross currents out there but not sure politics means much, and the Chinese tensions are rather old news these days. The issue will be how much you want to bet on reactions to the rate hike on Wednesday and as away we play key number and pattern completions but there are always surprises.Continue reading
Expecting a pullback on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (9/25) Expecting a pullback on Tuesday. Nothing bullish in the crop conditions report. We do see higher meats the rest of the week but hard to chase hogs at current levels. Still like long cattle and may get one more pullback early Tuesday for a buy on feeders.Continue reading
Wild cycles into the weekend
FOR MONDAY: (9/24) Cycles into the weekend are wild and the political background noise is a huge circus that the market barely cares about. Other countries are also very vulnerable. We’re looking for lower action on stocks for Sunday night into part of Monday but then that may be it. Any falls on the dollar will set up a 2-week rally, and gold is failing and any 2-day bounce needs to be sold for the rest of the week and probably the next 2 weeks. Crude is on the edge with OPEC news but it could come back from the dead.Continue reading
Harvest pressure likely to hit grains into Sunday-Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (9/24) We see harvest pressure hitting grains into Sunday-Tuesday, and someone is going to use this rally to empty their bins. Too early and too big of a crop to declare a major bottom. Cattle on Feed was as expected but dips should be bought, with higher prices the rest of the week. Hogs look higher the rest of the week, with Monday vulnerable, and we’ll wait there before chasing.Continue reading
Markets in paralysis before FOMC
FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Quadruple Witch can be a big sideways nothing after an early spurt and isn’t a great trading day. Markets in paralysis before FOMC and while we still have a bias toward higher gold and silver and lower dollars, not much happening yet without much more of a crisis. Going to leave it alone before the weekend break.Continue reading
Exaggerated short-covering may not mean much
FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Cycles are mixed. Definite chart turn-ups for wheat and beans but corn is lagging, and we’re coming into weekend harvest action and Sunday look lowers and also possibly Monday. Exaggerated short-covering may not mean that much given the large crops. We had exited ½ of corn and bean hedges already and should have a chance to get out of more later. Cattle look lower one more day; hogs should do profit-taking but don’t look done.Continue reading