Lot of turns on the weekly chart ahead

FOR MONDAY: (10/1) First of the month fund buying should start. Research on the 12-year cycle that kicks in mid-October suggests lower dollars for a year and higher metals, and we’re starting to sense that the Oct. seasonals for stocks may fail unless 2950 isn’t taken out early in the week. Lot of turns coming on the weekly chart in the next few weeks, and we’ll continue to report as we complete more research.Continue reading

Beans probably a buy by Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (10/1) USDA’s quarterly stocks report was the main driver in grain markets on Friday, delivering mostly bearish news. Corn futures tumbled more than 2% by Friday’s close, with soybeans down more than 1%. The agency’s stock report had more bullish news for wheat, but those futures also ended around 0.5% lower amid some quarter-end liquidation. Grains look lower Monday and probably into part of Tuesday but may recover the rest of the week.Continue reading

Day after an FOMC meeting often

FOR THURSDAY: (9/27) Not sure we learned much from the FOMC meeting except that the market was overbought and end of the month profit-taking is needed. Still, Oct. seasonal buying isn’t far away and they will jump on buying the corrections over the next few days. Doubt that the political circus on Thursday will have any impact on the confirmation and we can all wait on the next scandal to keep us entertained and keep CNN ratings up. Where is Walter Cronkite when you need him?Continue reading

Cycles for Thursday point lower

FOR THURSDAY: (9/27) Trade waiting on Friday’s USDA reports. Those reports are also happening at the end of the month when funds square position and before a harvest weekend. Cycles for Thursday look potentially lower so the trade may cash in their chips. Cattle may hold up all day but we will move stops up.Continue reading

Favoring higher dollars into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/26) Another FOMC meeting. They usually buy them, and that should be the case overnight and into before the announcement but starting to sense a fall after the announcement into Thursday. We do favor higher dollars into Friday, and that should mean we have to sell gold in the morning and silver despite heroics today.Continue reading

Hogs still looking higher for a few days

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/26) We had a bullish grain cycle into Wednesday and didn’t get out of short beans fast enough or reverse. Still should be up on Wednesday but may get more volatile, and bean reversal was a bit ugly already. Hogs are still higher a few days, as are cattle.Continue reading

Tuesday before FOMC usually higher

FOR TUESDAY: (9/25) The Tuesday before FOMC is often higher although a rate hike is already priced in so it shouldn’t have much impact. The issue will be how many more rate hikes they project, with Deutsche Bank seeing 5 more by the end of 2019. There are a lot of cross currents out there but not sure politics means much, and the Chinese tensions are rather old news these days. The issue will be how much you want to bet on reactions to the rate hike on Wednesday and as away we play key number and pattern completions but there are always surprises.Continue reading

Expecting a pullback on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/25) Expecting a pullback on Tuesday. Nothing bullish in the crop conditions report. We do see higher meats the rest of the week but hard to chase hogs at current levels. Still like long cattle and may get one more pullback early Tuesday for a buy on feeders.Continue reading

Wild cycles into the weekend

FOR MONDAY: (9/24) Cycles into the weekend are wild and the political background noise is a huge circus that the market barely cares about. Other countries are also very vulnerable. We’re looking for lower action on stocks for Sunday night into part of Monday but then that may be it. Any falls on the dollar will set up a 2-week rally, and gold is failing and any 2-day bounce needs to be sold for the rest of the week and probably the next 2 weeks. Crude is on the edge with OPEC news but it could come back from the dead.Continue reading