FOR TUESDAY: (9/25) Expecting a pullback on Tuesday. Nothing bullish in the crop conditions report. We do see higher meats the rest of the week but hard to chase hogs at current levels. Still like long cattle and may get one more pullback early Tuesday for a buy on feeders.Continue reading
Wild cycles into the weekend
FOR MONDAY: (9/24) Cycles into the weekend are wild and the political background noise is a huge circus that the market barely cares about. Other countries are also very vulnerable. We’re looking for lower action on stocks for Sunday night into part of Monday but then that may be it. Any falls on the dollar will set up a 2-week rally, and gold is failing and any 2-day bounce needs to be sold for the rest of the week and probably the next 2 weeks. Crude is on the edge with OPEC news but it could come back from the dead.Continue reading
Harvest pressure likely to hit grains into Sunday-Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (9/24) We see harvest pressure hitting grains into Sunday-Tuesday, and someone is going to use this rally to empty their bins. Too early and too big of a crop to declare a major bottom. Cattle on Feed was as expected but dips should be bought, with higher prices the rest of the week. Hogs look higher the rest of the week, with Monday vulnerable, and we’ll wait there before chasing.Continue reading
Markets in paralysis before FOMC
FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Quadruple Witch can be a big sideways nothing after an early spurt and isn’t a great trading day. Markets in paralysis before FOMC and while we still have a bias toward higher gold and silver and lower dollars, not much happening yet without much more of a crisis. Going to leave it alone before the weekend break.Continue reading
Exaggerated short-covering may not mean much
FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Cycles are mixed. Definite chart turn-ups for wheat and beans but corn is lagging, and we’re coming into weekend harvest action and Sunday look lowers and also possibly Monday. Exaggerated short-covering may not mean that much given the large crops. We had exited ½ of corn and bean hedges already and should have a chance to get out of more later. Cattle look lower one more day; hogs should do profit-taking but don’t look done.Continue reading
Volatile cycles on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) Not sure we learned much on Wednesday but global rates are in a bit of a crisis and dragging US notes lower. Stocks are still in Lala land and some minor flight to quality. Cycles are volatile on Thursday and not sure we have anything definitive to do and expect more range trading than anything.Continue reading
Too dangerous to buy grains
FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) We had grains recovering on Wednesday but think it may be a 1-day shot. Grains are often lower on Thursdays and beans need to take out 836 to trigger a daily chart reversal. Action on Wednesday was promising but too early to signal a seasonal bottom. Corn still would look better at 340 or 336.50 and 801 for Nov. beans, and wheat will get dragged along. Too dangerous to buy. Some rains in the Midwest will delay harvest but not enough to prevent farmers from emptying their bins. Hogs may be too overbought to go much farther if 6100 comes in on October. Cattle aren’t coming off much but cycles suggest they should. Ideal sales there from higher levels, which we probably won’t see until Thursday.Continue reading
Not seeing S & P much above 2921 on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Usually a week before FOMC we get congestive whippy ranges and we are starting to set up for that. Not seeing S & P much above 2921 on Wednesday but starting to look like stocks, gold and crude and T-notes are higher into Friday and dollar lower.Continue reading
Key numbers in on grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Key numbers in on grains. Lower is very possible. Cycles are more mixed than higher into Friday so not seeing any need to buy with harvest pressure building. Hogs may get oversold and fall into Friday with no place to go. Cattle are mixed and we have a bias toward lower prices.Continue reading
S&P needs to take out 2888 quickly to fall deeper
FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) Stocks down a bunch in the night session as the reality of the tariffs sets in. Should at least spill into Tuesday and maybe Wednesday. Cycles are volatile and something unexpected involving the military or natural disasters around earthquakes could develop within the next few days, and it has been tense with hurricane and tornadoes.Continue reading