FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) Not sure we learned much on Wednesday but global rates are in a bit of a crisis and dragging US notes lower. Stocks are still in Lala land and some minor flight to quality. Cycles are volatile on Thursday and not sure we have anything definitive to do and expect more range trading than anything.Continue reading
Too dangerous to buy grains
FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) We had grains recovering on Wednesday but think it may be a 1-day shot. Grains are often lower on Thursdays and beans need to take out 836 to trigger a daily chart reversal. Action on Wednesday was promising but too early to signal a seasonal bottom. Corn still would look better at 340 or 336.50 and 801 for Nov. beans, and wheat will get dragged along. Too dangerous to buy. Some rains in the Midwest will delay harvest but not enough to prevent farmers from emptying their bins. Hogs may be too overbought to go much farther if 6100 comes in on October. Cattle aren’t coming off much but cycles suggest they should. Ideal sales there from higher levels, which we probably won’t see until Thursday.Continue reading
Not seeing S & P much above 2921 on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Usually a week before FOMC we get congestive whippy ranges and we are starting to set up for that. Not seeing S & P much above 2921 on Wednesday but starting to look like stocks, gold and crude and T-notes are higher into Friday and dollar lower.Continue reading
Key numbers in on grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Key numbers in on grains. Lower is very possible. Cycles are more mixed than higher into Friday so not seeing any need to buy with harvest pressure building. Hogs may get oversold and fall into Friday with no place to go. Cattle are mixed and we have a bias toward lower prices.Continue reading
S&P needs to take out 2888 quickly to fall deeper
FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) Stocks down a bunch in the night session as the reality of the tariffs sets in. Should at least spill into Tuesday and maybe Wednesday. Cycles are volatile and something unexpected involving the military or natural disasters around earthquakes could develop within the next few days, and it has been tense with hurricane and tornadoes.Continue reading
Cycle low for grains into Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) We found a new cycle low for grains into Wednesday that we missed in earlier research so no reason to bottom pick corn early. Beans projecting 805 now and wheat could easily get taken along for the ride. Will the trade buy the fact of the China sanctions or will they just quickly drop it another rung. No reason to but can you get into shorts?Continue reading
Stocks look lower Sunday night, Monday
FOR MONDAY: (9/17) We have stocks lower on Sunday night and Monday, and would expect that there would at least be some pullback from the hurricane. May be difficult to trade and we’ll have to see how things settle out on Monday. You may have to get something short near the open of Sunday night. Trump plans to announce new tariffs on up to $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Monday in a move that will prompt an immediate retaliation from China, and may lead to a sharply lower futures open on Sunday night.Continue reading
Wheat minimum numbers in
FOR MONDAY: (9/17) Minimum numbers for wheat came in and that may block corn from hitting the more ideal 346-7 area for now but possible with harvest pressure. Beans can’t be bought as a countertrend play unless we see 811-13, and that would take some major bad news out of China combined with harvest pressure.Continue reading
S&P sideways to higher on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Pre-hurricane weekend, with cycles intense over the weekend for fear and it doesn’t look like it will be over by Monday but somehow the weather people always having us betting on the end of the world and it’s never quite that bad. Still, it will be a mess and will hurt the dollar short-term and create more debt with federal aid but when you have a printing press, who’s counting? We have been a bit gun shy this week but have had a sense of market numbers and direction. May be able to do something early next week.Continue reading
Cycles suggest short-covering for grains on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Not sure we learned much on Thursday. With weekend harvest pressure, it may be too much to expect a short-covering bounce or a rally on Monday but it’s still early in the harvest season so maybe not too much pressure. Cycles suggest short-covering on Friday and higher prices on Monday. The wild card going into the weekend is Hurricane Florence. The spin and hype around these hurricanes often is worse than the actuality but we’ve seen rather dire things happen. Hurricane Florence is expected to influence crop production along the Atlantic coast, especially in North Carolina. The damage and recovery time to get back to normal will be a concern for traders as the balance of the week unfolds. Hard to say how many acres are influenced or how much permanent damage there will be but we are not dealing with the I- states in the Midwest, so in the end it won’t mean much for grains. We do see grains recovering on Monday into early next week, and ideally patterns to the downside would be done at 347 on Dec. corn and 811-813 on Nov. beans at 494-7 on Dec. wheat so that a natural rally would be due anyway.Continue reading