FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/22) Market sharply lower on the Cohen news but may recover by the morning. We got the stocks sell signal and now have to find a place to get in. Dollar really falling apart but need a dead-cat bounce into Wednesday to get in and will look in the morning.Continue reading
Cycles are volatile Sunday/Monday
FOR MONDAY: (8/20) Cycles are volatile on Sunday/Monday and we could get some wild geo-political news, and it has been happening already. Patterns for stocks look a bit higher and if there’s no wild news, the market tends to find a way to go up on Mondays. Tuesday looks more vulnerable for stocks. Two key trend changes for many markets over the weekend and so by late Monday, we should have reversals in place from last week, with metals looking lower from weekend highs into Wednesday and the dollar recovering next week. Oil looks higher until the Aug. 27, and stocks should do another leg lower next week but can’t rule out first running wild to the upside on Sunday or early Monday.Continue reading
Inflationary cycles peak on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (8/20) Inflationary cycles peak on Monday and it could pull grains up for a final flourish but grains look lower the rest of the week and inevitably Chinese talks will fail and the market will head lower. At the point where we have to worry about seasonal pressure starting to come in. Cattle look lower all week and hogs are in Chinese heaven and it may last until Wednesday.Continue reading
Stocks look higher into Sunday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/17 no change) Expecting stocks to recover the next few days while metals should find a temporary floor and do a dead-cat bounce. While stocks have issued a stronger sell-signal, we can probably only count on another 61 S & P points lower from wherever the market stalls into Sunday or Monday. There’s a sense that with Turkey, the other shoe could drop and set off a major crisis but not clear on the timing and need to research much of September, which tends to be bearish for stocks anyway.Continue reading
Expect grains will hold up on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/17) Expect that grains will hold up but could be lower on Sunday/Monday if there’s any surprise negative news from China. Hard to take anything home, and the optimism about China may hold the market up into Monday until there is the next disagreement. Tired of this story. Cattle didn’t go down and could go up one more day.Continue reading
Metals should find a temporary floor
FOR THURSDAY: (8/16) Expecting stocks to recover the next few days while metals should find a temporary floor and do a dead-cat bounce. While stocks have issued a stronger sell-signal, we can probably only count on another 61 S & P points lower from wherever the market stalls into Sunday or Monday. There’s a sense that with Turkey, the other shoe could drop and set off a major crisis but not clear on the timing and need to research much of September, which tends to be bearish for stocks anyway.Continue reading
Beans lower on Thursdays
FOR THURSDAY: (8/16) Usually we can count on grains moving lower on Thursdays, and Wednesday’s failure is a reminder that this market is still a bit on the ropes. Weather is cooling and wetter and that will alleviate any late concerns about beans. Cattle recovered but unlikely we’ll stick around too much longer, as we had a cycle high here.Continue reading
Dollar looks higher 2 more days
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/15) Hard to play overnight with geopolitical and geo-economic tensions strong. If the stocks don’t fall apart overnight, they will continue to be a buy on dips. Dollar looks higher 2 more days and gold lower.Continue reading
Meats remain a bit sickly
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/15) Grains bounced to the upper edges. Much more and beans will issue a buy signal, and the bounce looks healthy. Meats remain a bit sickly but we bought in case they find some strength.Continue reading
Stocks could put in a divergent low
FOR TUESDAY: (8/14) Spillover from Turkey to South America may be the next domino to fall but global markets managed to recover. Stocks could put in a divergent low but we think the surprise will be to the upside and we’ll wait for the morning to make a final decision on how to trade.Continue reading