FOR TUESDAY: (8/14) While farm prices eroded on follow-through selling from USDA’s bearish corn and soybeans estimates Friday, stock values around the world fell on spreading concerns about the financial crisis in Turkey, where the lira made a new all-time low. Rains are headed to the southern Plains and Midwest over the next week as the weather outlook improves for finishing crops.Continue reading
S & P cycles pointing higher next week
FOR MONDAY: (8/13) On Thursday, we had put Turkey on the list of key places that could be impacted by geopolitical tensions and we’re not through the weekend yet and still have highly sensitive areas outlined for China, UK, Argentina, Turkey, India and Israel. The cycle over the weekend can trigger major political and economic events of significance, and it should impact oil strongly–and usually the powers that be create enough saber-rattling to make sure that oil stays up. As always, hard to take a position home over the weekend.Continue reading
Grains cycles look mostly lower this week
FOR MONDAY: (8/13) Never got the spike higher to get more shorts on but we’ve been hedging early. Grains cycles look mostly down for a week now, and the reality of the crop size and condition may continue to impact the market. Will be difficult to get new positions on but we’ll see what we can pull off. Nearly impossible to compete with computer traders who get orders off in nano-seconds while we decide where our entry will be, and even market orders get killed when the roof caves in. Working on weekly chart cycles and patterns but hard to imagine anything coming to the rescue until late October if demand picks up or SA has planting problems.Continue reading
New research suggests lower stocks for Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/10) New research suggests lower stocks for Friday and higher gold for Friday and Sunday but much of next week, gold looks lower. Geopolitical tensions should be strong over the weekend, and that would incline us to expect surprises into the Sunday night session and to not be too aggressively positioned. The following countries are on the sensitize news zone: China, UK, Argentina, Turkey, India and Israel.Continue reading
Cycles suggest grains rally
FOR FRIDAY: (8/10) Another USDA report day. Cycles suggest a rally and usually these reports need to be sold and are key turning points. Grains look clearly lower next week and profit-taking will set in. The worst of the cattle fall should be over and we see a one-week recovery. Hogs put in a key low and look higher for about a week.Continue reading
Stocks set to on Thursday?
FOR THURSDAY: (8/9) Not sure what the market is waiting for or why it may retrace on Thursday but it’s acting a bit tippy, and heavy and let’s see how much it comes off.Continue reading
Cycles for Friday’s report look friendly
FOR THURSDAY: (8/9) Markets are often choppy before the USDA report, and that makes trading tricky as you have to get in and out every day. So far, we’re justified in getting out of short beans but they’re not exactly running away. Cycles for Friday’s report look friendly and chances are that any secondary highs made on Friday will be sold, with weaker action the following week. Will look for set-ups for next week on rallies into Friday.Continue reading
Wednesday a volatile transition day
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/8) Wednesday is a volatile transition day. We could see wild continuations of the trend followed by sudden reversals that continue into Thursday. Not seeing major crash energy so just think pullbacks are needed on current moves so far this week.Continue reading
Volatile cycles ahead
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/8) Markets are often choppy before the USDA report, and that makes trading tricky as you have to get in and out every day. So far, we’re justified in getting out of short beans but they’re not exactly running away. Cycles are volatile the next few days so probably will leave them alone.Continue reading
More surprises coming
FOR TUESDAY: (8/7) Cycles were optimistic today and the biggest geopolitical surprise was an assassination attempt by a drone on Venezuelan President Maduro. There are still more surprises coming, and the Pound is falling sharply as fears for no Brexit deal in Britain’s ugly divorce case aren’t going anywhere. Dollar recovered and seems likely to breakout above 9550 or a major breakout with the pound falling and the Euro needing to fall.Continue reading