FOR FRIDAY: (8/17) Expect that grains will hold up but could be lower on Sunday/Monday if there’s any surprise negative news from China. Hard to take anything home, and the optimism about China may hold the market up into Monday until there is the next disagreement. Tired of this story. Cattle didn’t go down and could go up one more day.Continue reading
Metals should find a temporary floor
FOR THURSDAY: (8/16) Expecting stocks to recover the next few days while metals should find a temporary floor and do a dead-cat bounce. While stocks have issued a stronger sell-signal, we can probably only count on another 61 S & P points lower from wherever the market stalls into Sunday or Monday. There’s a sense that with Turkey, the other shoe could drop and set off a major crisis but not clear on the timing and need to research much of September, which tends to be bearish for stocks anyway.Continue reading
Beans lower on Thursdays
FOR THURSDAY: (8/16) Usually we can count on grains moving lower on Thursdays, and Wednesday’s failure is a reminder that this market is still a bit on the ropes. Weather is cooling and wetter and that will alleviate any late concerns about beans. Cattle recovered but unlikely we’ll stick around too much longer, as we had a cycle high here.Continue reading
Dollar looks higher 2 more days
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/15) Hard to play overnight with geopolitical and geo-economic tensions strong. If the stocks don’t fall apart overnight, they will continue to be a buy on dips. Dollar looks higher 2 more days and gold lower.Continue reading
Meats remain a bit sickly
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/15) Grains bounced to the upper edges. Much more and beans will issue a buy signal, and the bounce looks healthy. Meats remain a bit sickly but we bought in case they find some strength.Continue reading
Stocks could put in a divergent low
FOR TUESDAY: (8/14) Spillover from Turkey to South America may be the next domino to fall but global markets managed to recover. Stocks could put in a divergent low but we think the surprise will be to the upside and we’ll wait for the morning to make a final decision on how to trade.Continue reading
Max bounce on wheat is 540.50 or 546.50
FOR TUESDAY: (8/14) While farm prices eroded on follow-through selling from USDA’s bearish corn and soybeans estimates Friday, stock values around the world fell on spreading concerns about the financial crisis in Turkey, where the lira made a new all-time low. Rains are headed to the southern Plains and Midwest over the next week as the weather outlook improves for finishing crops.Continue reading
S & P cycles pointing higher next week
FOR MONDAY: (8/13) On Thursday, we had put Turkey on the list of key places that could be impacted by geopolitical tensions and we’re not through the weekend yet and still have highly sensitive areas outlined for China, UK, Argentina, Turkey, India and Israel. The cycle over the weekend can trigger major political and economic events of significance, and it should impact oil strongly–and usually the powers that be create enough saber-rattling to make sure that oil stays up. As always, hard to take a position home over the weekend.Continue reading
Grains cycles look mostly lower this week
FOR MONDAY: (8/13) Never got the spike higher to get more shorts on but we’ve been hedging early. Grains cycles look mostly down for a week now, and the reality of the crop size and condition may continue to impact the market. Will be difficult to get new positions on but we’ll see what we can pull off. Nearly impossible to compete with computer traders who get orders off in nano-seconds while we decide where our entry will be, and even market orders get killed when the roof caves in. Working on weekly chart cycles and patterns but hard to imagine anything coming to the rescue until late October if demand picks up or SA has planting problems.Continue reading
New research suggests lower stocks for Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/10) New research suggests lower stocks for Friday and higher gold for Friday and Sunday but much of next week, gold looks lower. Geopolitical tensions should be strong over the weekend, and that would incline us to expect surprises into the Sunday night session and to not be too aggressively positioned. The following countries are on the sensitize news zone: China, UK, Argentina, Turkey, India and Israel.Continue reading