Grain cycles suggest a bounce for a few days

FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) There’s slight improvement in the U.S. corn crop. As of Sunday, the USDA National Ag Statistics Service says the crop is 78 percent good to excellent. That’s a percentage point better than a week ago. The condition of the soybean crop is down a percentage point from last week at 73 percent good to excellent. Ninety-five percent of U.S. winter wheat is headed; 27 percent is harvested. Winter wheat is 39 percent good to excellent, while the SPRING wheat crop is 78 good to excellent.

JULY CORN
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/19) Corn closed under the key 360 area and it will be difficult to close above it now even if we get a 2-day bounce. Will the trade buy the fact of an improved crop? Cycles suggest a bounce here for a few days before a move to 349.75 and 343. A 3-wave bounce now projects 368. Not trusting this market but the worst may be over for a few days. If you’re still bearish, need to sell bounces to 368- 372. We will keep some corn hedges. A pollination scare is going to be needed to save this market but eventually this should be a wet year and the crop should be fine. We’re going to switch to Dec. corn soon and it’s 21.5 over so start watching it.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Retracing higher Tuesday/Wednesday; lower Thursday; mixed Friday; lower into June 25.

Crude not done until 6087

FOR MONDAY: (6/18) Stocks cycles look lower next week; gold looks like it could have a 2-3-day bounce from lower levels and the dollar and euro need to retrace those huge moves from Thursday for a few days. Crude not done until 6087 but short-covering likely to start soon before contract expiration.Continue reading

Grains oversold, due for a 2-3-day bounce

FOR MONDAY: (6/18) Will Chicago traders trade the experience of 90’s over the weekend or look ahead to a break in the weather mid-week? Markets are oversold and due for a 2-3-day bounce but then looks lower into June 25. Hogs may retrace a day but look higher much of next week, as does cattle.Continue reading

New highs on NQ suggest no deeper break

FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) We didn’t get dramatic reversals like we had expected except for the dollar and the euro, and new highs on NQ don’t bode well for this market. If China tariffs aren’t as bad as expected, the market could celebrate and do what it does best and buy Netflix and Amazon.Continue reading

Corn close to 360 key support

FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) If you wait long enough, your numbers will come, and we all got faked out by Tuesday’s report action that triggered buy signals and then they flushed everyone down the drain. Absurd target from earlier in the week came on beans at 923 and corn is close to 360 key support and secondary low.Continue reading

Cycles turn more volatile Thursday afternoon

FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) Cycles turn more volatile on Thursday afternoon and thinking a cycle low into Monday for stocks. ECB craziness is often worse than FOMC craziness so we’re a bit gun shy and have to focus on key patterns and numbers and cycles. We have gold lower for a few days, which means that the euro may come off.Continue reading

Beans in a death spiral

FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions will allow a bounce. Wheat retraced much more than makes us happy and beans are in a death spiral but closer to extended target of 923.Continue reading

Cycles firm Wednesday, volatile Thursday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We looked closely at cycles on Wednesday and they seem firm and then more volatile on Thursday. New continuation highs on NQ should bring SP up so not expecting anything wild to the downside, and the divergent high seems likely. Other markets were too congestive to give us too many clues. While we have a bias toward lower dollars and higher gold, we have learned not to try to overpredict computer algos and surprises.Continue reading

Oversold conditions may allow for a grains bounce

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions may allow a bounce. Beans look terrible and wheat is crazier than I’ve seen in years so not going to touch it on Wednesday.Continue reading

Divergent high on stocks should finally lead to something bigger

FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) The Trump meeting is 9 am Singapore time so we will get the drift of it tonight in the evening news. The bigger events are a Brexit vote on Tuesday and waiting for FOMC on Wednesday, but probably ECB on Thursday will have the most impact on the week. We do expect that a divergent high on stocks should finally lead to something bigger with a cycle low for stocks into Monday.Continue reading