FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We looked closely at cycles on Wednesday and they seem firm and then more volatile on Thursday. New continuation highs on NQ should bring SP up so not expecting anything wild to the downside, and the divergent high seems likely. Other markets were too congestive to give us too many clues. While we have a bias toward lower dollars and higher gold, we have learned not to try to overpredict computer algos and surprises.Continue reading
Oversold conditions may allow for a grains bounce
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions may allow a bounce. Beans look terrible and wheat is crazier than I’ve seen in years so not going to touch it on Wednesday.Continue reading
Divergent high on stocks should finally lead to something bigger
FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) The Trump meeting is 9 am Singapore time so we will get the drift of it tonight in the evening news. The bigger events are a Brexit vote on Tuesday and waiting for FOMC on Wednesday, but probably ECB on Thursday will have the most impact on the week. We do expect that a divergent high on stocks should finally lead to something bigger with a cycle low for stocks into Monday.Continue reading
Still open to much lower grain prices
FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) Another USDA report day and they are often turning points. That’s particularly so this time with very oversold conditions and cycles suggesting a recovery into June 18. There‘s reason to take profit on shorts and hedges and then we will re-evaluate by June 18. We’re still open to much lower prices, as July wheat needs to go to 485-6 and July corn to 340-1 and July beans could hit 900. If we put in June lows, the market has a great chance of recovering if heat hits pollination, and some weather threat is likely.Continue reading
Grain recovery into at least June 18 likely
FOR MONDAY: (6/11) Oversold conditions from last week should lead to a recovery into at least June 18 for grains. Short-covering should start sometime by Monday night at the latest, and the trade is concerned about the USDA report on Tuesday, which has to have pleasant surprises given oversold conditions.Continue reading
Expecting congestive, messy action ahead of FOMC, ECB
FOR MONDAY: (6/11) The G-7 meeting in Canada runs over the weekend with fireworks expected, and we’ll see how markets are impacted. They may wait until Sunday to explode one way or the other. Hard to imagine Trump backing down but is that positive or negative for the dollar? Stocks cycles do point lower from Wednesday, June 13 into June 18 but will the trade try to make a divergent high first? We’re completing research through late July and are clear on the next week but always a congestive mess and surprises with FOMC and ECB this week so it boils down to gambling unless patterns and cycles are really clear, and there are some places that is true.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (6/11) Stocks held up better than we expected. Our stop held but we’re going into Sunday, which is often vulnerable. We can use a slightly higher stop, as we do expect an early week low before FOMC. We’re counting on the typical 35-50-point pre-FOMC retracement on Monday but we’re also dealing with a cash pattern that may lead to a divergent high.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower June 11.
G-7 fireworks expected
FOR FRIDAY: (6/8) The G-7 meeting in Canada runs Friday and Saturday with fireworks expected, and we’ll see how markets are impacted. They may wait until Sunday to explode one way or the other. Hard to imagine Trump backing down but is that positive or negative for the dollar? We have currency rollovers and stock index rollers and FOMC on Wednesday so we’re more likely to get large range of congestion–and if there are counter-thrusts, we would expect them on Sunday night/Monday. Need to complete our June/July cycle work on Friday to see if cycles are confirming what patterns are implying.Continue reading
Beans hit extended target of 973
FOR FRIDAY: (6/8) Would think that end of the week short-covering might set in ahead of the USDA report on Tuesday. Beans hit extended target of 973 and corn not far from lower target. Wheat failed at a key number near 537 and came off quite a bit. We always worry about Friday hedging pressure for July wheat this time of year, and it’s probably a sale.Continue reading
NQ divergent high approaching
FOR THURSDAY: (6/7) Stocks cycles are running out of time and energy. Often, the market will top out the first few weeks of June. Divergent high for NQ the next few days should be the beginning of the end for the summer so bears should start to salivate. For now, the bulls will stay in control a few more days. We have rollover coming for June currencies and stock indices and then congestion before the FOMC meeting next week so the easy trading may be just about over.Continue reading
Grains looking lower into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (6/7) Thursday and Friday could be lower, and patterns to the downside don’t look complete. Still, charts look terrible and the chances for new highs will depend on whether dry comes with hot; our forecast has been for above normal rains this year. The outlook the next few weeks is not supporting hot and dry yet. No rush to cover shorts on grains.Continue reading