FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) We didn’t get dramatic reversals like we had expected except for the dollar and the euro, and new highs on NQ don’t bode well for this market. If China tariffs aren’t as bad as expected, the market could celebrate and do what it does best and buy Netflix and Amazon.Continue reading
Corn close to 360 key support
FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) If you wait long enough, your numbers will come, and we all got faked out by Tuesday’s report action that triggered buy signals and then they flushed everyone down the drain. Absurd target from earlier in the week came on beans at 923 and corn is close to 360 key support and secondary low.Continue reading
Cycles turn more volatile Thursday afternoon
FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) Cycles turn more volatile on Thursday afternoon and thinking a cycle low into Monday for stocks. ECB craziness is often worse than FOMC craziness so we’re a bit gun shy and have to focus on key patterns and numbers and cycles. We have gold lower for a few days, which means that the euro may come off.Continue reading
Beans in a death spiral
FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions will allow a bounce. Wheat retraced much more than makes us happy and beans are in a death spiral but closer to extended target of 923.Continue reading
Cycles firm Wednesday, volatile Thursday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We looked closely at cycles on Wednesday and they seem firm and then more volatile on Thursday. New continuation highs on NQ should bring SP up so not expecting anything wild to the downside, and the divergent high seems likely. Other markets were too congestive to give us too many clues. While we have a bias toward lower dollars and higher gold, we have learned not to try to overpredict computer algos and surprises.Continue reading
Oversold conditions may allow for a grains bounce
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/13) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions may allow a bounce. Beans look terrible and wheat is crazier than I’ve seen in years so not going to touch it on Wednesday.Continue reading
Divergent high on stocks should finally lead to something bigger
FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) The Trump meeting is 9 am Singapore time so we will get the drift of it tonight in the evening news. The bigger events are a Brexit vote on Tuesday and waiting for FOMC on Wednesday, but probably ECB on Thursday will have the most impact on the week. We do expect that a divergent high on stocks should finally lead to something bigger with a cycle low for stocks into Monday.Continue reading
Still open to much lower grain prices
FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) Another USDA report day and they are often turning points. That’s particularly so this time with very oversold conditions and cycles suggesting a recovery into June 18. There‘s reason to take profit on shorts and hedges and then we will re-evaluate by June 18. We’re still open to much lower prices, as July wheat needs to go to 485-6 and July corn to 340-1 and July beans could hit 900. If we put in June lows, the market has a great chance of recovering if heat hits pollination, and some weather threat is likely.Continue reading
Grain recovery into at least June 18 likely
FOR MONDAY: (6/11) Oversold conditions from last week should lead to a recovery into at least June 18 for grains. Short-covering should start sometime by Monday night at the latest, and the trade is concerned about the USDA report on Tuesday, which has to have pleasant surprises given oversold conditions.Continue reading
Expecting congestive, messy action ahead of FOMC, ECB
FOR MONDAY: (6/11) The G-7 meeting in Canada runs over the weekend with fireworks expected, and we’ll see how markets are impacted. They may wait until Sunday to explode one way or the other. Hard to imagine Trump backing down but is that positive or negative for the dollar? Stocks cycles do point lower from Wednesday, June 13 into June 18 but will the trade try to make a divergent high first? We’re completing research through late July and are clear on the next week but always a congestive mess and surprises with FOMC and ECB this week so it boils down to gambling unless patterns and cycles are really clear, and there are some places that is true.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (6/11) Stocks held up better than we expected. Our stop held but we’re going into Sunday, which is often vulnerable. We can use a slightly higher stop, as we do expect an early week low before FOMC. We’re counting on the typical 35-50-point pre-FOMC retracement on Monday but we’re also dealing with a cash pattern that may lead to a divergent high.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower June 11.