FOR THURSDAY: (5/24) The trade is leaving for the holidays and we rarely do well holiday trading or post-holiday trading. Usually the day after a holiday is filled with head fakes and double head fakes, and the wise trader waits for the noise to settle down to play. Moreover, we’re moving into the end of the month next week. We are lightening up on trading and with our travel schedule, we will have few reports until Tuesday but will cover key news events if we see something you should be aware.Continue reading

Cattle looking up into COF

FOR THURSDAY: (5/24 no change) We’re concerned about thinning holiday conditions already in the cattle markets, and it’s always difficult to take a grain position out over a long holiday weekend. We have a bias toward lower grains into Thursday with Friday maybe being position squaring. Cattle are already looking ahead toward the COF report on Friday. It looks like cattle could be up into the report and be lower after Memorial Day. Grains may also be up on Friday and have some follow-through into Monday night but it’s always the hardest day to play. We see any rallies on Monday night followed by massive selling when the trade comes back from the holidays. Between the China ping-pong trade match and weather markets, we just have to be as flat as possible.Continue reading

Bias toward stock market pullback into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/23) Have to be concerned about thinning conditions as traders head toward the exits ahead of Memorial Day. We have a bias for a stock market pullback into Friday, and Tuesday’s failure supports it. Wednesday is still a transition day. We hate pre-holiday trading and have to hold back and then wait for huge release on Tuesday when everyone comes back.Continue reading

Bias toward lower grains into Thursday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/23) We’re concerned about thinning holiday conditions already in the cattle markets, and it’s always difficult to take a grain position out over a long holiday weekend. We have a bias toward lower grains into Thursday with Friday maybe being position squaring. Cattle are already looking ahead toward the COF report on Friday. It looks like cattle could be up into the report and be lower after Memorial Day. Grains may also be up on Friday and have some follow-through into Monday night but it’s always the hardest day to play.Continue reading

Stocks cycles positive

FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Still should be an active day before it thins out before the holidays. Cycles are positive and we see a good chance for stocks to spurt. Willing to buy pullbacks on gold and silver for countertrend plays, and we like crude into Thursday if we can get a pullback.

JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Market was strongly higher and had nowhere to go. At worst, probably a pullback to 2723.50 but still could see 2765.50 this week. Will look for a buy in the morning. What is promising is the fact that our fears for a retest of 2700 or lower to 2694 never manifested last Friday during the weakest day of the run. If the market can’t decisively take out 2641-2 Tuesday, the hopes for 2765-74 may be delayed or they just may drag out into early June as the trade gets ready for Memorial Day.
OVERALL: We’re not expecting any major fallout and a new high to 2779 or more is possible into June if the market behaves. Lately, seasonal trends have extended later in June rather than May, and often this occurs after the 2nd week of June.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher Tuesday; topping Wednesday; lower into Friday.

Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Despite the strong Sunday rallies, the smart trade knew to sell. Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday and probably Wednesday. Crop plantings were better than expected and not likely to provide much relief. The issue may be how much more corn get in Michigan and Wisconsin.Continue reading

Gold, silver look higher next week

FOR MONDAY: (5/21) We’re moving into a pre-holiday week and the trade may be going home after Wednesday. Monday morning looks lower for stocks so we’re open to a pullback but it may end up being a buy into Tuesday. Gold and silver look higher much of next week as does crude, and the dollar should pullback next week.Continue reading

Beans seem safest to sell

FOR MONDAY: (5/21) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday and probably Wednesday, and they may not have far to go after strong rallies. Beans seem safest to sell but corn failed to issue a buy signal. Can wheat carry the rest of the complex higher or will the forecasts change over the weekend and overbought conditions lead to a pullback? Not going to sell wheat but can get away with beans shorts. Meats look higher this week, but Monday can be volatile, and it’s always hard to buy this early-week dips.Continue reading

Crude fundamentals, trend remain strong

FOR FRIDAY: (5/18) Traders aren’t taking too much home for the weekend lately so end-of- the-week position squaring may hit for stocks and crude. Trend and fundamentals remain strong for crude, and our target for crude continues to be 7900 this summer. S &P not likely to fall dramatically, and chances are it will be a buy on Sunday night.Continue reading

Grain cycles point lower on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (5/18) Starting to sense that grain cycles are more likely to be lower on Friday, but we could get a surprise over the weekend. Have to get short in case something bigger happens to the market. Cattle should continue short-covering.Continue reading