FOR THURSDAY: (5/10) We have a bias toward strength and bullish energy the next few days for many markets so we see no reason to top-pick stocks or crude. Gold and silver will be the victims and we need to find a way to get into the dollar.Continue reading
Have to leave grains alone
FOR THURSDAY: (5/10) Grain cycles are mixed, with many suggesting a recovery into Friday but we‘ve seen them invert so often that we like to stick with patterns. If wheat completed 5 waves down to 500.50 and pulled corn down for a divergent low, then we could get a recovery into Friday. Have to leave grains alone and the trade may leave them rather congestive before USDA report.Continue reading
Cycles volatile for Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/9) Cycles are volatile for Wednesday so we don’t sense an easy trade for crude or stocks but they may stabilize later in the week. The press is confused about the terms of pulling out of the Iran deal and they are rather complicated but Iran still wants to negotiate with the other partners in the deal, and it will take months to put sanctions on again and a new deal could happen by then. In the end, the Israel and the Military Industrial complex want war and we have to admit that the billions of dollars from the deal that support a regime that hates us and terrorizes the Middle East isn’t a good investment. You have to dig really deep to understand all the issues here.Continue reading
Grain cycles mixed
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/9) Grain cycles are mixed with many suggesting a recovery into Friday but we have seen them invert so often that we like to stick with patterns. If wheat completed 5 waves down to 500.50 and pulled corn down for a divergent low on Wednesday then we could get a recovery into Friday. We have a low-confidence trade tonight. Have to leave grains alone and the trade may leave them rather congestive before USDA.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/9) We’re open to a larger congestive retracement up to 1031. We’re not in a rush to sell again nor do we think the market will run away to the upside, and we’re going to do one more sell looking for 982 at some point. Expect a congestive mess for now. The chance for short-covering the rest of the week is strong before the USDA report. Support at 1001 with bounces this week going to 1021 and 1027.
OVERALL: The most bearish pattern would project a 3-wave fall to 982.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways to lower Wednesday.
Stocks still seem higher on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY (5/8) The Iran decision is due at 2 pm Eastern Time. The surprise would be to go for it rather than upset the apple cart, and crude has been pricing in the return to sanctions. Stocks still seem higher on Tuesday and patterns suggest the need for at least 2701-05 on the S & P.Continue reading
Turnaround Tuesday for grains
FOR TUESDAY: (5/8) Cycles are mixed into the end of the week but more inclined to expect a negative report reaction. Market is oversold from Monday so Turnaround Tuesday should give us a chance to get short if you want to risk it into the report.Continue reading
Next week looks friendly for stocks
FOR MONDAY (5/7) San Francisco Fed’s John Williams says “comfortable overshooting 2% inflation for a while” and stocks are green for the week and the biggest short squeeze since Brexit hits the market. We had a low due by Monday but thought the market might be down all day. Next week looks friendly for stocks and much friendlier than the following week. Crude is now looking higher for at least two more weeks and rallies on T-notes should be sold on Monday.Continue reading
Grains look lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (5/7) Grains look lower on Monday and recovering on Tuesday and then lower on Wednesday with the trade waiting on the USDA report on Thursday. Cycles are mixed into the end of the week but more inclined to see a negative report reaction. If wheat doesn’t get enough rain in drought-stricken areas, that will be a game changer and that will impact Monday. At the moment, they are looking for a bit more rain.Continue reading
Thinking a secondary low for Friday
FOR FRIDAY (5/4) We were reluctant to chase stocks because a bounce was inevitable given the way news Algos work. White House Economist Mark Calabria commented after the first day of trade discussions in China that he was “optimistic” and that US has “discreetly” given China a list of asks and that the day ended “pretty positive.” However, what algos clearly ignored is that Calabria concluded on a slightly more somber tone, saying that “the tough part in the talks is ensuring China keeps its promises.” And that was enough to ignite the momentum into the green for the day. Thinking a secondary low day for Friday and higher next week and will get ready to buy dips. China failing will lead to the new low but not the end of the world.Continue reading
China optimism may bleed into morning action
FOR FRIDAY: (5/4) China optimism did us in and we should have just stood aside. White House Economist Mark Calabria commented after the first day of trade discussions in China that he was “optimistic” and that US has “discreetly” given China a list of asks and that the day ended “pretty positive.” However, what algos clearly ignored is that Calabria concluded on a slightly more somber tone, saying that “the tough part in the talks is ensuring China keeps its promises.” And that was enough to ignite the momentum into the green for the day. We think China optimism will bleed over into the morning but a reality check may hit later in the day and knock the market down. Hard to play these news-sensitive days.Continue reading