FOR THURSDAY (5/3) Often a weak close for stocks after an FOMC day will be followed by a a sell-off in Euro and Asia, and if you trade overnight, there is reason to sell. We should have a swing high for gold into Monday/Tuesday, a swing low for the dollar, and a recovery high for T-notes coming now.Continue reading
Cycles overall seem weak
FOR THURSDAY: (5/3) Willing to sell the weaker beans and cattle and hogs if we can get filled. Cycles overall seem weak but not fighting beans or corn.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/3) Bearish RSI divergence on the double-top on July but some patterns now project 539. Can’t sell a roaring bull until we get a reversal. The 29/30-day cycles are positive and have to leave it alone. Market needs to start taking out 515 to turn bearish.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Next key swing low into May 7.
Cycles suggest negative FOMC reaction
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/2) Another FOMC day. Our cycle work suggests a negative reaction but always a gamble and often full of surprises. Markets that are overdone could have a buy-the- fact or sell-the-fact reaction, as is the case with the dollar and gold. We’ll consider new strategies in the morning.Continue reading
Wheat tour got grains going
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/2) The wheat tour got grains going, and even though corn has no reason to be up here, it‘s following wheat. We usually don’t like to sell grains on Wednesday and will assume slightly higher prices. Open to sales on Thursday if patterns come in. Cattle and hogs should bounce a day but then are sales.Continue reading
Have to sell the pattern completion on wheat
FOR TUESDAY: (5/1) Wheat prices saw some contracts up double digits on drought concerns for some winter wheat production and planting delays for some spring wheat production. Wheat and beans opened higher in the Monday night session, with wheat having the strongest gains. Have to sell the pattern completion on wheat in the 519-20 region. Beans are too oversold to chase and we’ll leave them alone.Continue reading
Market was weaker than expected
FOR TUESDAY: (5/1) We’re continuing toward pre-FOMC position squaring. A lot of mixed signals for stock market on Monday but if it does recover, it seems like a sale on the week if we get a good set-up and confirmation. May not have many good trades and then if we do put something on, we have to deal with FOMC day ALGOS and volatility. We may end up staying patient.Continue reading
Mixed signals for stock market on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (4/30) We’re moving toward pre-FOMC position squaring and congestion, and then we also have month-end profit-taking by funds on Monday. A lot of mixed signals for stock market on Monday but if it does recover, it seems like a sale on the week if we get a good set-up and confirmation. May not have many good trades and then if we do put something on, we have to deal with FOMC day ALGOS and volatility. We may end up staying patient.Continue reading
Better chance for higher grains on Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (4/30) Friday’s spurt on grains wasn’t shocking and we had suggested taking profits on short beans. Patterns had suggested that wheat needed new highs, and it appears that has a good chance. We would think that month-end profit-taking could hit on Monday and we’re not inclined to chase. We feel better about higher prices for early Tuesday but wonder if that may be it, as corn and wheat are very close to pattern completions. Buy pullbacks on cattle for Monday and should see higher prices into Wednesday.Continue reading
Not ready to top-pick stocks
FOR FRIDAY: (4/27) Could end up with week-end profit-taking and then selling by Sunday as we move into the end of the month. Not ready to top-pick stocks tonight but may be open on Friday. Gold and dollar are fractions from key target areas.Continue reading
Cattle should bounce
FOR FRIDAY: (4/27) The 29-day cycle is weak for grains and we favor lower prices into Sunday and maybe Monday. Cattle should bounce and didn’t fall much on Thursday, and hogs may hold and bounce a few days but are in trouble. Month end-position squaring by funds will distort things into Monday.Continue reading