FOR TUESDAY: (5/8) Cycles are mixed into the end of the week but more inclined to expect a negative report reaction. Market is oversold from Monday so Turnaround Tuesday should give us a chance to get short if you want to risk it into the report.Continue reading
Next week looks friendly for stocks
FOR MONDAY (5/7) San Francisco Fed’s John Williams says “comfortable overshooting 2% inflation for a while” and stocks are green for the week and the biggest short squeeze since Brexit hits the market. We had a low due by Monday but thought the market might be down all day. Next week looks friendly for stocks and much friendlier than the following week. Crude is now looking higher for at least two more weeks and rallies on T-notes should be sold on Monday.Continue reading
Grains look lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (5/7) Grains look lower on Monday and recovering on Tuesday and then lower on Wednesday with the trade waiting on the USDA report on Thursday. Cycles are mixed into the end of the week but more inclined to see a negative report reaction. If wheat doesn’t get enough rain in drought-stricken areas, that will be a game changer and that will impact Monday. At the moment, they are looking for a bit more rain.Continue reading
Thinking a secondary low for Friday
FOR FRIDAY (5/4) We were reluctant to chase stocks because a bounce was inevitable given the way news Algos work. White House Economist Mark Calabria commented after the first day of trade discussions in China that he was “optimistic” and that US has “discreetly” given China a list of asks and that the day ended “pretty positive.” However, what algos clearly ignored is that Calabria concluded on a slightly more somber tone, saying that “the tough part in the talks is ensuring China keeps its promises.” And that was enough to ignite the momentum into the green for the day. Thinking a secondary low day for Friday and higher next week and will get ready to buy dips. China failing will lead to the new low but not the end of the world.Continue reading
China optimism may bleed into morning action
FOR FRIDAY: (5/4) China optimism did us in and we should have just stood aside. White House Economist Mark Calabria commented after the first day of trade discussions in China that he was “optimistic” and that US has “discreetly” given China a list of asks and that the day ended “pretty positive.” However, what algos clearly ignored is that Calabria concluded on a slightly more somber tone, saying that “the tough part in the talks is ensuring China keeps its promises.” And that was enough to ignite the momentum into the green for the day. We think China optimism will bleed over into the morning but a reality check may hit later in the day and knock the market down. Hard to play these news-sensitive days.Continue reading
Current pattern projects S&P 2602
FOR THURSDAY (5/3) Often a weak close for stocks after an FOMC day will be followed by a a sell-off in Euro and Asia, and if you trade overnight, there is reason to sell. We should have a swing high for gold into Monday/Tuesday, a swing low for the dollar, and a recovery high for T-notes coming now.Continue reading
Cycles overall seem weak
FOR THURSDAY: (5/3) Willing to sell the weaker beans and cattle and hogs if we can get filled. Cycles overall seem weak but not fighting beans or corn.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/3) Bearish RSI divergence on the double-top on July but some patterns now project 539. Can’t sell a roaring bull until we get a reversal. The 29/30-day cycles are positive and have to leave it alone. Market needs to start taking out 515 to turn bearish.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Next key swing low into May 7.
Cycles suggest negative FOMC reaction
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/2) Another FOMC day. Our cycle work suggests a negative reaction but always a gamble and often full of surprises. Markets that are overdone could have a buy-the- fact or sell-the-fact reaction, as is the case with the dollar and gold. We’ll consider new strategies in the morning.Continue reading
Wheat tour got grains going
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/2) The wheat tour got grains going, and even though corn has no reason to be up here, it‘s following wheat. We usually don’t like to sell grains on Wednesday and will assume slightly higher prices. Open to sales on Thursday if patterns come in. Cattle and hogs should bounce a day but then are sales.Continue reading
Have to sell the pattern completion on wheat
FOR TUESDAY: (5/1) Wheat prices saw some contracts up double digits on drought concerns for some winter wheat production and planting delays for some spring wheat production. Wheat and beans opened higher in the Monday night session, with wheat having the strongest gains. Have to sell the pattern completion on wheat in the 519-20 region. Beans are too oversold to chase and we’ll leave them alone.Continue reading