Cycles mixed this week

FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Mixed data. Spillover from the stock market was ugly, and that may hurt the market into mid-week. Cycles are mixed enough and action erratic that we have a low-confidence trade but will hang on. Cattle may bounce 1-2 days and set up new shorts, and hogs are in trouble for at least two more days but hard to play limit down moves.Continue reading

Beans may not take out 1035-36 before the report

FOR THURSDAY: (3/29) Not planning a lot of trading before or after the reports on Thursday or into Monday. Three-day weekends are very volatile. We have outlined patterns and cycles below and you are welcome to trade but time for a rest with the Easter/Passover holiday.Continue reading

Stocks going to break the first few weeks of April

FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW
FOR THURSDAY: There‘s so much background noise going into the weekend and coming out of the weekend that it’s hard to imagine anything positive happening. Action on Thursday was wild both ways with position squaring and did not make much sense, particularly in the dollar. What is clear is that stocks are going to break the first few weeks of April and we have to get short and survive the computer trading. Not sure we have to or want to take much home but it will be difficult to position without better risk/rewards if you’re brave.Continue reading

S&P may do 3-wave bounce on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: We got busy and when we looked up the market had suddenly returned to levels seen at Monday’s lows. Tough to pin a catalyst in this flush – which has pushed S&P red and Nasdaq down hard – but a combination of NVDA’s drop, TSLA’s tumble, 5Y auction tail, and FB comments, seems to be stalling the bounce. Cycles are particularly bad for NQ through mid-April and between Facebook, and soon to be Twitter and TSLA, and there’s big trouble in River City and more is likely come. We stayed short stocks on our ETF timer with SDS, as we knew the other shoe would drop into mid-April but we had thought we had another day to nibble at shorts.Continue reading

Grains headed for short-covering

FOR WEDNESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading

War and terrorism cycles are strong

FOR TUESDAY: Sucker-punch Monday and suddenly everything is wonderful! May last another day but something bizarre will happen late in the week and into the long weekend. War and terrorism cycles are strong and it is something we do not want to predict but it’s edgy out there. Stocks will get spooked again quickly probably after early Wednesday.Continue reading

Minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading

Anxiety cycles increasing into the Easter

FOR MONDAY: Anxiety cycles are increasing into the Easter Holiday and may continue thereafter for a few weeks until Tax Day so it’s hard to find many cycles that would allow a stronger recovery over the next month. Stock market may be down so hard on Sunday/Monday that it has to do short-covering into Tuesday or part of Wednesday just to rebalance. Have to think that much lower numbers can come if the market is vulnerable into April 13.Continue reading