Lower gold and higher dollars ahead

FOR FRIDAY: (4/6) Too much volatility and too many surprises lately have us not in the mood to outguess the market for Friday. Thursday should have been down but it wasn’t, and does that mean a delayed impact on Friday? The sucker punch has changed the momentum. We do see lower gold and higher dollars so we have to assume the more bullish pattern for stocks.Continue reading

More trade wars announced tonight could torpedo grains, meats

FOR FRIDAY: (4/6) More trade wars announced tonight are likely to unnerve overbought grains and meats now, so chances are they’re a sale and then we’ll see where we are on Monday. If grains pull back a few days and haven’t hit upper targets, then there might be a buy if you want to gamble before the USDA report on Tuesday. We have a bias for a positive reaction and continue to look at pullbacks into April 16 as providing the best possible entry. We’re completing research and this will be anything but a normal weather year, and that means grains will stay bid. Late plantings are a concern but it’s still too early to worry and hot and dry problems this summer may finally create a weather market—the double-edged sword.

Favoring sideways to lower stocks for Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/5) Trade waiting on employment report. We have a bias toward sideways to lower stocks for Thursday and lower stocks on Friday but this market is full of surprises everyday. Gold should retrace 2 days now and the dollar is still wanting to go higher for a few days.Continue reading

Grains may retrace into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/5) Knee-jerk reactions on very bad news can create major lows and buying opportunities and the smart money was buying the dip last night and the movement was exaggerated. While grains may retrace a few days now into Friday, they look higher early next week and then we have the USDA report coming. Cattle hit key numbers that we had projected the last few days very closely and they also look done and hogs recovered also so the worst may be over.Continue reading

Stocks set to fall apart after Tuesday bounce

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/4) Seems like it could be a repeat of last week with a strong Tuesday bounce and then stocks fall apart again. Have to get short stocks again and the other 1-day retracements will be followed by a continuation of the trends from Monday.Continue reading

29/30-day grain cycles higher the next few days

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/4) Cycles are complicated for Wednesday and patterns are mixed enough that we will leave the markets alone. Cattle clearly have at least one more rung to go but harder to chase. Cycles into Wednesday/Thursday have often been dramatically bearish but once in a while they invert, and the 29/30-day cycles for grains are higher the next few days so we’re feeling confused as to how to take new positions. We can’t totally ignore the USDA report and yet the market is often vulnerable in April with competition from South America. Only cold and snow weather delays for planting are a plus.

Tuesday best chance for a stocks recovery

FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Tuesday is the best day of the week for a stock market recovery but new lows are coming so will have to get short any absurd bounce that happens and be ready for the rest of the week. That should give gold a pause and the dollar has a 5th wave high to do and crude needs a bounce.Continue reading

Cycles mixed this week

FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Mixed data. Spillover from the stock market was ugly, and that may hurt the market into mid-week. Cycles are mixed enough and action erratic that we have a low-confidence trade but will hang on. Cattle may bounce 1-2 days and set up new shorts, and hogs are in trouble for at least two more days but hard to play limit down moves.Continue reading