FOR TUESDAY: Sucker-punch Monday and suddenly everything is wonderful! May last another day but something bizarre will happen late in the week and into the long weekend. War and terrorism cycles are strong and it is something we do not want to predict but it’s edgy out there. Stocks will get spooked again quickly probably after early Wednesday.Continue reading
Minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading
Anxiety cycles increasing into the Easter
FOR MONDAY: Anxiety cycles are increasing into the Easter Holiday and may continue thereafter for a few weeks until Tax Day so it’s hard to find many cycles that would allow a stronger recovery over the next month. Stock market may be down so hard on Sunday/Monday that it has to do short-covering into Tuesday or part of Wednesday just to rebalance. Have to think that much lower numbers can come if the market is vulnerable into April 13.Continue reading
Grain cycles remain complicated
FOR MONDAY: (3/26) Grain cycles remain complicated and USDA report on Thursday may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually do not like to play this congestive week before the report. Cattle on Feed was bearish but the trade may fade it as the market is very oversold as is the hog market.Continue reading
Short-covering will hit cattle before COF
FOR FRIDAY: (3/23) Mixed cycles into Friday. The 29/30-day cycles are friendly for grains, and logic says short-covering will hit cattle before COF on Friday. That makes most sense to us. There is a bearish cycle that peaks into late Friday but could lead to some more downward action, but we’re going to favor some optimism and short-covering for at least 1-1.5 days.Continue reading
Can buy dips on gold
FOR THURSDAY: (3/22) Usually the FOMC movement spills over into Asia and Europe with follow-through. We can’t sell major support on the S & P but can buy dips on gold and sell the dollar.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (3/22) Wild ride. The trade wasn’t happy about rate projections for 2019 and 2020 and decided to sell the early rally, and tank the dollar and gold. We had gone into the week with a bias toward long metals and short dollar but got spooked and stopped on gold on Tuesday. Not sure what to make of the stock market and will wait for the morning.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Recovering into Friday.
Mixed cycles into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (3/22) Mixed cycles into Friday. The 29/30-day cycles are friendly for grains, and logic says short-covering will hit cattle before COF on Friday. That makes most sense to us. There is a bearish cycle that peaks into late Friday but could lead to some more downward action, but we’re going to favor some optimism and short-covering for at least 1-1.5 days.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/22) Resistance up to 385.50 and 388.50. Cycles are mixed, and lower support never came in at 378.75 so nothing to so in the middle. It’s a scalp buy at 379 and a sale at 388.
Hard to sell corn in 383 region
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/21) Spring is officially here. Cycles are mixed the next few days and the market is very oversold. The lower projections for grains entice to what to sell but need to see 477 on July wheat and better prices on corn if we’re going to sell anymore. Cattle may bounce a day, as may hogs but those markets remain very bearish.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/21) Did not get near 387 for a sale and we may see 378.75 before a recovery to 385 or 388. Will decide in the morning. Hard to sell the 383 region and possible that 387 may come in on Wednesday and then lead to 379. Larger patterns project 375.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Friday.
Anxiety cycles increasing into the Easter holiday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/21) Trade waiting on FOMC. Here’s what key analysts think:
The question then is whether the Fed will hike rates 3 or 4 times in 2018 and 2 or 3 times in 2019. Here opinions differ, and as Morgan Stanley writes, based on our stress-testing of the dot plot, it is possible to get to a full median of 4 hikes in 2018, particularly if the Chair moves, “but we think it is too early in the year for the FOMC to agree more tightening is needed, particularly in light of continued uncertainty about just how much tightening the first full year of balance sheet shrinkage will deliver. Also, having over-promised and under-delivered on rate hikes in 2015 and 2016, we think the FOMC will be reluctant to raise the median path too aggressively early this year and risk a repeat scenario—at least at this meeting.”
OVERALL: Anxiety cycles are increasing into the Easter Holiday and may continue thereafter for a few weeks until tax day so it’s hard to find many cycles that would allow a stronger recovery over the next month. The best cycles for a strong bounce could come from Wednesday into Friday but it would take a dovish FED doing 3 rate hikes and not 4, Trump backing off on China, and a magical budget coming together. That seems too much to ask.
Favoring long gold, short dollars
FOR TUESDAY: (3/20) Too much news this week with the G-20 finishing, FOMC on Wednesday, new Chinese tariffs on Friday and fighting over the next budget going into the end of the week. Add saber-rattling with the UK and Russia and political punches from both sides still trying to take down or protect the President, and it’s a bit of a mess. Tension cycles not done until April 2-4 so I suspect we have a lot more noise coming. Will favor logical trades here which means long gold, short dollars and short stocks but we have to tread carefully.Continue reading