Grains topping Monday, then lower

FOR MONDAY: (3/5) We have a bias for topping grains over the next session and lower action into March 12-13. We do sense that they are very overdone and any shift in bullish weather will lead to massive selling, so be careful. Hogs look lower next week but Monday could be higher and cattle may recover a day and turn lower into Wednesday of next week.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/5) One more push higher will go to at least 397.75 with upper resistance at 401.75 unlikely. Daily chart patterns would suggest a minor fall to max. 389 or 386. Larger patterns project 413 and 422 into the spring but hard to get too excited. We have a bias toward a retracement from March 5- into March 12-13 but aren’t in a rush to sell as this market has remained bid.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Sunday/Monday.

Time and price targets may be complete by Monday

FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) We do sense a completion of bullish grain energy by Sunday or early Monday and then a pullback for at least 5-6 days. Still, this market keeps galloping and July wheat projects 544 and July beans a 1082.50 or 1088, and July corn could get pulled up to 400. Time and price targets may be complete by Monday.Continue reading

Complicated cycles, intense volatility ahead

FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) Volatility is rather intense and cycles are complicated. Rallies overnight on stocks can be sold overnight and into Friday but once S & P 2600 comes in, we doubt the market will continue with a waterfall. Markets are getting complicated and cycles are rather complex into the weekend so expect more crazy action.Continue reading

Some cycles suggest a strong rubber-ban recovery

FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) We usually can count on first-of-the-month buying to save the market and with some oversold conditions from the 2-day blood-bath, investment bankers may scoop stocks up. There’s a lot of data on Thursday, and that may fuel moves. Some cycles suggest a strong rubber-ban recovery the next few days but risk-taking cycles do get volatile going into the weekend. Seasonally, the later part of March is often bearish so we need to keep that in mind.Continue reading

Hard to chase on a Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (3/1) Didn’t get our pullback and hard to chase on a Thursday, which is often lower. Market remains very strong so not sure what to do. When these markets start turning into weather markets, pullbacks are minor and sometimes you have to jump. July wheat looks like a buy at 501 and July beans at 1059 and more ideally at 1048.Continue reading

Surprises on Tuesday with Powell remarks

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/28) The surprises came on Tuesday with Powell, as in the end, his comment on fiscal responsibility and problems down the road in a few years were sobering and needed and painful. In the end they were interpreted as being hawkish. Usually that kind of movement is carried over into Asia and Europe, which missed some of the late show.Continue reading

Hogs look terrible technically

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/28)) March grain first day notice should create some profit-taking there, and that’s why we can’t be long those contracts. Cattle should bounce 1 more day and hogs look terrible technically but may stabilize on Wednesday. End of the month fund profit-taking can distort patterns, cycles and technicals.Continue reading

Dollar cycles point lower this week

FOR TUESDAY: (2/27) As much as we would like to trend-trade and hold, action on Sunday and potentially this week reminds us that these markets have rhythms that change weekly. The dollar failed to breakout last week and cycles point lower this week unless Powell turns uber-hawkish, and gold could get pulled up. New highs on NQ remind us that the SP will follow and that late to the party bears are going to be in trouble even if we still get wild 30-50 point corrections at times. Never a dull moment.Continue reading

Cattle should bounce 1-2 days

FOR TUESDAY: (2/27) March grain first day notice should create some profit-taking there, and that’s why we can’t be long those contracts. Cattle should bounce 1-2 days and hogs look terrible technically but may stabilize and bounce on Tuesday.Continue reading

Dollar looks lower this week

FOR MONDAY: (2/26) Not sure there‘s anything huge pending over the weekend. The week before employment report usually has a big-range Monday and then a lot of congestion. NQ made new highs on the move and should pull the S & P. Not sure that bears can hope for anything meaningful this week but month-end profit-taking should hit from Monday into Wednesday. Dollar looks lower this week and has failed to break higher to 9050 or 9080 and we’re not into selling with the change of trend.Continue reading