FOR FRIDAY: (2/23) USDA opened its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum with some 2018 grain acre projections, which includes slightly lower corn and soybean acres this year, with wheat acres an estimated 500,000 acres higher than 2017. No major curveballs were thrown, allowing traders to make small technical adjustments on other market factors. Cycles for grains seem positive on Friday and may peak on Sunday night or early Monday. We need new bullish weather forecasts over the weekend to create a breakout on beans and pull the rest of the complex higher.Continue reading
Grains often lower on Thursdays
FOR THURSDAY: (2/22) Grains are often lower on Thursdays, and a pullback may be in order but still could make new highs for beans on Friday and into Sunday. Cattle have a low on Thursday and a recovery on Friday, and hogs are probably a sale by Friday but need to complete research.Continue reading
Is Goldman playing games again?
FOR THURSDAY: (2/22) Is Goldman playing games again, suggesting 5 rate hikes this year when the trade through the Minutes meant 3 rate hikes? Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stocks high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. Have to see how Europe and Asia react to the news but our cycles and patterns are fairly clear.Continue reading
2-day congestive fall not that significant
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Market was overdone and a 2-day congestive fall isn’t that significant. Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading
Have to buy grain dips
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts and probably will be supportive another week and possibly longer. Have to buy grain dips. Meats look like they may be overbought by Tuesday and be a light sale for a few days, and we’ll take profits on short hogs.Continue reading
Next key pivot point is Sunday, Feb. 25
FOR TUESDAY: (2/20) Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Three-day holidays can have a lot of movement. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading
Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts
FOR TUESDAY: (2/20) Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts and probably will be supportive another week and possibly longer. Have to buy grain dips. Meats look like they may be overbought by Tuesday and be a light sale for a few days, and we’ll take profits on short hogs.Continue reading
Cycles look positive but…
FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) Cycles look positive but we may have everyone heading early for the exits for a much-needed holiday. Assuming profit-taking will set in by 9 am on trending situations, which means gold and silver coming off and short-covering for the dollar. Best entries may be Monday during the holiday for new longs on metals and shorts on the dollar.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) The close above 2727 means we won’t get much of a pullback, if any. Cycles are strong the next few trading days and not thinking there are too many major scares out there to keep the trade from buying before the long weekend. We assume that the 78% retracement up to 2802 will come in. We have a cycle high into Monday and a pullback for 2-3 days next week. Basically, we are in sucker-punch mode where the late bears may get punched out if they are not careful. In the end the chances of seeing a 78% retracement up to 2802 could happen by Monday if the trade is open to pre-holiday and holiday buying on Monday in Europe and Asia.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher into Friday; topping into Monday.
Three-day weekends always precarious
FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) Three-day weekends are always precarious with South American and winter weather for wheat, and it’s usually safer to stand aside. Will go with pattern analysis but it’s possible that beans will be complete at 1031-2, and wonder if we will get a sell the fact or a big reversal if weather patterns shift over the weekend. Tired of gambling with weather and we’ll mostly stand aside.Continue reading
Insane day on Wednesday
FOR THURSDAY: (2/15) Insane day on Wednesday and not sure anyone survived. Hard to be able to dip your toe into the water now. Seems like momentum from Wednesday will peak early Thursday and then turn into Monday. Hard to chase anything, as a bit more will happen and then profit-taking will set in before the 3-day weekend.Continue reading