FOR TUESDAY: (2/27) March grain first day notice should create some profit-taking there, and that’s why we can’t be long those contracts. Cattle should bounce 1-2 days and hogs look terrible technically but may stabilize and bounce on Tuesday.Continue reading
Dollar looks lower this week
FOR MONDAY: (2/26) Not sure there‘s anything huge pending over the weekend. The week before employment report usually has a big-range Monday and then a lot of congestion. NQ made new highs on the move and should pull the S & P. Not sure that bears can hope for anything meaningful this week but month-end profit-taking should hit from Monday into Wednesday. Dollar looks lower this week and has failed to break higher to 9050 or 9080 and we’re not into selling with the change of trend.Continue reading
Grains should be sharply lower into Wednesday
FOR MONDAY: (2/26) Not sure we learned anything from Friday’s action, with beans making a slight new high on the week but just by a hair get someone’s stop. Market should be sharply lower into Wednesday so that may mean the weather will shift so be protective; it may be that we have to sell a rally into Sunday or Monday morning. Cattle on Feed was considered neutral to bearish but market was a bit oversold going into it. Hogs also look lower for Monday.Continue reading
Choppy action, big ranges in stocks
FOR FRIDAY: (2/23) No US reports on Friday. The trade will look elsewhere to Europe and Canada. The Eurozone will release its final consumer price index (CPI) reading for January on Friday. A stronger than expected CPI print could renew investor expectations the central bank could tighten monetary policy measures sooner rather than lighter after the release of somewhat dovish ECB minutes Thursday. The minutes showed that the central bank continued to believe that patience was needed as inflation remained weak and agreed that it was still “premature” to adjust forward guidance. Canadian inflation data also coming. Choppy action and big ranges in stocks is good for traders with nibble fingers but not a great trending situation.
Cycles for grains seem positive on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (2/23) USDA opened its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum with some 2018 grain acre projections, which includes slightly lower corn and soybean acres this year, with wheat acres an estimated 500,000 acres higher than 2017. No major curveballs were thrown, allowing traders to make small technical adjustments on other market factors. Cycles for grains seem positive on Friday and may peak on Sunday night or early Monday. We need new bullish weather forecasts over the weekend to create a breakout on beans and pull the rest of the complex higher.Continue reading
Grains often lower on Thursdays
FOR THURSDAY: (2/22) Grains are often lower on Thursdays, and a pullback may be in order but still could make new highs for beans on Friday and into Sunday. Cattle have a low on Thursday and a recovery on Friday, and hogs are probably a sale by Friday but need to complete research.Continue reading
Is Goldman playing games again?
FOR THURSDAY: (2/22) Is Goldman playing games again, suggesting 5 rate hikes this year when the trade through the Minutes meant 3 rate hikes? Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stocks high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. Have to see how Europe and Asia react to the news but our cycles and patterns are fairly clear.Continue reading
2-day congestive fall not that significant
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Market was overdone and a 2-day congestive fall isn’t that significant. Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading
Have to buy grain dips
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts and probably will be supportive another week and possibly longer. Have to buy grain dips. Meats look like they may be overbought by Tuesday and be a light sale for a few days, and we’ll take profits on short hogs.Continue reading
Next key pivot point is Sunday, Feb. 25
FOR TUESDAY: (2/20) Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Three-day holidays can have a lot of movement. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading