2-day congestive fall not that significant

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Market was overdone and a 2-day congestive fall isn’t that significant. Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading

Have to buy grain dips

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/21) Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts and probably will be supportive another week and possibly longer. Have to buy grain dips. Meats look like they may be overbought by Tuesday and be a light sale for a few days, and we’ll take profits on short hogs.Continue reading

Next key pivot point is Sunday, Feb. 25

FOR TUESDAY: (2/20) Next key pivot point for most financials is Sunday, Feb. 25. We think it will be a stock high, dollar high and gold low and crude high. Three-day holidays can have a lot of movement. Some of it will get retraced on Wednesday but that will set up entries for Sunday. We like to let the dust settle and will focus on Wednesday entries.Continue reading

Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts

FOR TUESDAY: (2/20) Grains reacting to dry SA weather forecasts and probably will be supportive another week and possibly longer. Have to buy grain dips. Meats look like they may be overbought by Tuesday and be a light sale for a few days, and we’ll take profits on short hogs.Continue reading

Cycles look positive but…

FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) Cycles look positive but we may have everyone heading early for the exits for a much-needed holiday. Assuming profit-taking will set in by 9 am on trending situations, which means gold and silver coming off and short-covering for the dollar. Best entries may be Monday during the holiday for new longs on metals and shorts on the dollar.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) The close above 2727 means we won’t get much of a pullback, if any. Cycles are strong the next few trading days and not thinking there are too many major scares out there to keep the trade from buying before the long weekend. We assume that the 78% retracement up to 2802 will come in. We have a cycle high into Monday and a pullback for 2-3 days next week. Basically, we are in sucker-punch mode where the late bears may get punched out if they are not careful. In the end the chances of seeing a 78% retracement up to 2802 could happen by Monday if the trade is open to pre-holiday and holiday buying on Monday in Europe and Asia.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher into Friday; topping into Monday.

Three-day weekends always precarious

FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) Three-day weekends are always precarious with South American and winter weather for wheat, and it’s usually safer to stand aside. Will go with pattern analysis but it’s possible that beans will be complete at 1031-2, and wonder if we will get a sell the fact or a big reversal if weather patterns shift over the weekend. Tired of gambling with weather and we’ll mostly stand aside.Continue reading

Insane day on Wednesday

FOR THURSDAY: (2/15) Insane day on Wednesday and not sure anyone survived. Hard to be able to dip your toe into the water now. Seems like momentum from Wednesday will peak early Thursday and then turn into Monday. Hard to chase anything, as a bit more will happen and then profit-taking will set in before the 3-day weekend.Continue reading

Wednesday a transition day

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/14) Wednesday is a transition day, and grains would squeak out secondary highs or slight new highs but should turn lower on Thursday. Cattle cycles are positive but not liking the look of the charts and will observe for a day. Hogs not looking great. Volatility has been difficult for us to deal with lately.Continue reading

Volatility is back

FOR TUESDAY: (2/13) Volatility if back for those who have been tired with straight up but it does require full-time attention; you have to be on guard, and it negates taking much home overnight. Mondays sometimes are throw-away days so we have to see if any of the trends that start with gold and the dollar and oil today mean anything in the morning.Continue reading