FOR TUESDAY: (2/13) Volatility if back for those who have been tired with straight up but it does require full-time attention; you have to be on guard, and it negates taking much home overnight. Mondays sometimes are throw-away days so we have to see if any of the trends that start with gold and the dollar and oil today mean anything in the morning.Continue reading
Weather still driving grains
FOR TUESDAY: (2/13) We were wrong in expecting lower grains on Monday, as weather trumped all other factors. Now thinking that grains are higher on Tuesday into Wednesday. Upward momentum with weather seems rather strong and we think it will continue into the end of the week.Continue reading
Could see secondary lows for stocks on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (2/12) We could see secondary lows for stocks on Monday and if they hold, we would expect a recovery next week from oversold conditions for stocks. Metals look lower next week and the dollar higher. Crude may be too oversold to hold now.
OVERALL: Rand Paul’s heroics could not pull-off fiscal responsibility and in the long run, it will hurt the perception of the US but since we are dealing with unbacked phony printed money and illusion that our nation works, who cares if we can drink the Kool-Aid for another 2 years and pretend that our economy really works? In the meantime, Amazon announced they are competing with Fed-Ex and UPS with a new delivery and pick-up service so we wonder when corporate America will start yelling anti-trust? Those companies are tanking.
Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (2/12) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday. We think markets are overdone and due for some kind of correction for at least 2-3 days but if the move isn’t impulsive, we’ll have to get out and expect a recovery to new highs for wheat, and corn may get dragged along. Cattle should have short-covering next week.Continue reading
Concerned that key numbers for stocks are already in
FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) There’s a certain amount of chaos that makes us rather gun shy. We’re concerned that key numbers for stocks came in already with two more days of possible movement lower but without a decent risk/reward, hard to play now. These markets will get back to normal at some point but we’ll continue to be cautious unless cycles and patterns are crystal clear.Continue reading
Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday
FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday, with Friday having the best chance of a move up if weather changes. We think markets are overdone and due for some kind of correction for at least 2-3 days–but if it’s not impulsive, we’ll have to get out and expect a recovery to new highs for wheat, and corn may get dragged. Cattle should be lower at least one more day before short-covering hits early next week.Continue reading
Trade not liking the bond auction
FOR THURSDAY: (2/8) Trade not liking the bond auction or the fiscal irresponsibility of the budget but the House will probably pass and probably a lame end of years of kicking the can. In the meantime, stocks are in complicated congestion pattern, and that means you get these big waves and bounces. Can’t touch overnight.Continue reading
Wheat hit key target
FOR THURSDAY: (2/8) USDA report on Thursday has the market a bit overbought on weather, and the reality of fundamentals could send it spinning lower into Friday. Wheat hit key target also but funds may push it much higher, and we hate chasing these markets around reports. Upper targets starting to come in.Continue reading
Still on high-volatility alert
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/7) Still on high-volatility alert for a few more weeks but the lowest and most extreme numbers should be in for a while and may not even come out into the March low. If the budget deal looks promising, they may quickly take the market up to 2802. Fun trading now if you have nerves of steel.Continue reading
SA weather markets are back.
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/7) SA weather markets are back. Argentina weather continues to be a key grain market mover this winter, as a fresh set of slightly drier forecasts handed out double-digit gains for soybean futures, with corn prices seeing a moderate bounce as well. Wheat prices also finished higher on U.S. weather woes – namely, drought conditions that persist in the High Plains and other key production areas. Luckily we took partial profits on beans but did not get out of corn. Our work had suggested weather problems in SA in Feb. and we had see cycle lows into Friday, but that may come after March corn hits 368 and March beans 998. Weather is fickle but we have to get out at this point.