FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) We completed cycle work and most cycles point lower for grains all of this week. Trade looking to Thursday’s USDA report, which is early on the month. Crude oils is issuing an early sell signal and coming off with US stocks and not a healthy event with spillover.Continue reading
Circus should continue next week
FOR MONDAY: (2/5) The Circus should continue next week with the budget ceiling pending and we can’t imagine that the Dems will be cooperative given the anger that the memo is likely to drudge up. Expect another government shutdown and maybe it will last longer into Feb. 15. The latest proposal is another month of “can-kicking.” May get a delayed reaction from Asia on Sunday to the US meltdown and the political crisis here, and we have to think that even though key support at 2740 may lead to a dead-cat bounce, it won’t be anything final.Continue reading
Most grain cycles point lower next week
FOR MONDAY: (2/5) We completed cycle work and most cycles point lower for grains all of next week. We’re dealing with weather and it can shift a lot over the weekend. At the moment the bean bears are looking to rains coming in after a dry spell ends. The wheat bears also see more rain coming after another dry spell. Hogs look higher next week and had a convincing reversal. Cattle look lower next week but Monday is a transition day.Continue reading
Cycles still a bit edgy around government
FOR FRIDAY: (2/2) Employment report and the Republican secret memo end another volatile week. Cycles are still a bit edgy around government, and expect all kinds of attacks and counterattacks over the weekend, which makes us wonder if politics is about the people or who can get the next punch in. In the meantime the news networks on both sides make up stories to increase ratings and the world sees us a circus. Likely to get worse the next few days.Continue reading
Number of turns due here for a pullback
FOR FRIDAY: (2/2) Poor U.S. exports and the prospects for improved Argentina weather pulled soybean futures down a second consecutive day, with “spillover” to blame for mixed wheat results, and with corn ending slightly higher after another choppy day. Grain markets are a bit overbought and we have a number of turns due here for a pullback into at least Monday and possibly a bit longer. Not sure if the bull market in wheat will end, and we expect more problems with Brazil later in the month so not sure we should turn bearish grains. Hogs look lower into Monday.Continue reading
Hoping for a pause on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (2/1) Hoping for a pause on Thursday. We’re completing new cycle research and have found a key cycle into Sunday that will impact the dollar negatively and it’s supportive for stocks and crude oil.Continue reading
Grain markets a bit overbought
FOR THURSDAY: (2/1) Grain markets are a bit overbought and we have a number of turns due here for a pullback into at least Monday and possibly a bit longer. Not sure if the bull market in wheat will end, and we expect more problems with Brazil later in the month so not sure we should turn bearish grains. The cattle inventory report was as expected but a bit friendlier in some areas so short-covering likely. Hogs look lower a few days into Monday.Continue reading
Huge cycles the next few days
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/31) Huge cycles the next few days and we have State of the Union, FOMC and the Congressional memo bombshell due to be released within in a few days. Market has already been crazily volatile but we expect that to increase. We should get recoveries, and the promises for infrastructure development for the US should get things going. The fall on NQ wasn’t as pronounced as S & P, and it should’ve been more with the I-Phone X forecasts and that seems to be a bright spot.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/31) Our day-trade hotline made decent money selling in the 2840/38 region this morning. The chance for a recovery with the State of the Union tonight is likely, as it’s close to major support at 2820 and will easily go back to 2840 parabolic resistance. Cycles are volatile for Wednesday but we favor upward action into Friday. For weeks we had looked for a 70-point correction matching the August 2017 one and it’s just about in, but technically and we can’t rule out 2810 on futures or 2809 on cash before the market takes off again. We’re not favoring the larger 130-point correction on cash at this time, and ideally we would like to see one more new high. We cannot get beared-up, as we have seen for months what happens to the bears. Not willing to watch all night so we’ll see what develops in the morning.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Volatile but higher into Jan. 31; generally higher into Friday.
Not sure if the bull market in wheat will end soon
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/31) Grain markets are a bit overbought but there is a climax cycle on Wednesday and the chance for profit-taking setting in before the month-end positioning by funds will increase volatility. Market could turn lower into Monday. Not sure if the bull market in wheat will end soon, and we expect more problems with Brazil later in the month so not sure we should turn bearish grains. We may exit short corn into Wednesday if not stopped. Cattle sideways before the semi-annual report on Wednesday.Continue reading
30-day cycle is higher on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (1/30) Funds continuing to want to buy and are supported by weather. The 30-day cycle is higher on Tuesday and with cycles inverting, if there’s to finally be a reversal, it may not be starting until Thursday. Still a lot of mixed signals but the momentum is there and we won’t fight longs and top-pick wheat or beans just yet. Not all Feb. signals are lower. Some of our weather data continues to point toward problems in Feb. for S.A., and that may mean a bottom is in and we won’t get a seasonal downtrend. Still crunching data. Cattle are also wild this week and we have the semi-annual inventory out on Wednesday.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/30) Beans stalled near the old highs at 1015 but could get pulled to 1024 if wheat supports the market. Too much rain here in some areas but not thinking that is really a problem. Still, we’re starting to sense that we’re not having a normal crop or normal weather in South America, and we can’t ignore the technical signals. At this point 3 waves down could go to 999-1000 over the next few days but we still need to get a handle on action on Feb. Month-end fund-profit-taking is also looming.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Key turn into Wednesday morning—-probably a low.