FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday, with Friday having the best chance of a move up if weather changes. We think markets are overdone and due for some kind of correction for at least 2-3 days–but if it’s not impulsive, we’ll have to get out and expect a recovery to new highs for wheat, and corn may get dragged. Cattle should be lower at least one more day before short-covering hits early next week.Continue reading
Trade not liking the bond auction
FOR THURSDAY: (2/8) Trade not liking the bond auction or the fiscal irresponsibility of the budget but the House will probably pass and probably a lame end of years of kicking the can. In the meantime, stocks are in complicated congestion pattern, and that means you get these big waves and bounces. Can’t touch overnight.Continue reading
Wheat hit key target
FOR THURSDAY: (2/8) USDA report on Thursday has the market a bit overbought on weather, and the reality of fundamentals could send it spinning lower into Friday. Wheat hit key target also but funds may push it much higher, and we hate chasing these markets around reports. Upper targets starting to come in.Continue reading
Still on high-volatility alert
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/7) Still on high-volatility alert for a few more weeks but the lowest and most extreme numbers should be in for a while and may not even come out into the March low. If the budget deal looks promising, they may quickly take the market up to 2802. Fun trading now if you have nerves of steel.Continue reading
SA weather markets are back.
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/7) SA weather markets are back. Argentina weather continues to be a key grain market mover this winter, as a fresh set of slightly drier forecasts handed out double-digit gains for soybean futures, with corn prices seeing a moderate bounce as well. Wheat prices also finished higher on U.S. weather woes – namely, drought conditions that persist in the High Plains and other key production areas. Luckily we took partial profits on beans but did not get out of corn. Our work had suggested weather problems in SA in Feb. and we had see cycle lows into Friday, but that may come after March corn hits 368 and March beans 998. Weather is fickle but we have to get out at this point.
FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) Panic cycles can alter everything so we have to trade off of pattern. We can’t jump on the media’s panic energy or discussion of record DOW point falls, and of course we have to look at the percentage fall–and today’s fall was nothing like Oct. 1987. The Dow is only 30 stocks and we have stopped covering it for that reason. Still, we’re open for something deeper into Friday or maybe a bit longer but Tuesday may be the best day of the week for a bounce. Foreign overnight panic momentum can always feed this market so their markets are more likely to lay big eggs overnight.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) Computer models at the close point to support at 2584 with a bounce target of 2651 and 2688. Daily and weekly chart key targets now come in at 2520 and 2500. We should note that monthly chart parabolic support is at 2569, and it will take a monthly chart close below there for us to re-evaluate. Lower weekly chart support is all the way to 2290 if 2500 comes out. Timing suggests pressure until at least Feb. 9 but these big moves are often followed by huge congestive triangles, and the chance of a 78% bounce happening at some point. We’re more open to a bounce on Tuesday than any other day of the week and so hard to chase this market. Bounces on Tuesday suggest 2652 and 2689.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Feb. 9.
Trade looking to Thursday’s USDA report
FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) We completed cycle work and most cycles point lower for grains all of this week. Trade looking to Thursday’s USDA report, which is early on the month. Crude oils is issuing an early sell signal and coming off with US stocks and not a healthy event with spillover.Continue reading
Circus should continue next week
FOR MONDAY: (2/5) The Circus should continue next week with the budget ceiling pending and we can’t imagine that the Dems will be cooperative given the anger that the memo is likely to drudge up. Expect another government shutdown and maybe it will last longer into Feb. 15. The latest proposal is another month of “can-kicking.” May get a delayed reaction from Asia on Sunday to the US meltdown and the political crisis here, and we have to think that even though key support at 2740 may lead to a dead-cat bounce, it won’t be anything final.Continue reading
Most grain cycles point lower next week
FOR MONDAY: (2/5) We completed cycle work and most cycles point lower for grains all of next week. We’re dealing with weather and it can shift a lot over the weekend. At the moment the bean bears are looking to rains coming in after a dry spell ends. The wheat bears also see more rain coming after another dry spell. Hogs look higher next week and had a convincing reversal. Cattle look lower next week but Monday is a transition day.Continue reading
Cycles still a bit edgy around government
FOR FRIDAY: (2/2) Employment report and the Republican secret memo end another volatile week. Cycles are still a bit edgy around government, and expect all kinds of attacks and counterattacks over the weekend, which makes us wonder if politics is about the people or who can get the next punch in. In the meantime the news networks on both sides make up stories to increase ratings and the world sees us a circus. Likely to get worse the next few days.Continue reading