FOR MONDAY: (1/29) Waiting on weekend weather. If grains aren’t down hard on Sunday night or Monday, they should hold up into early Wednesday before month-end profit-taking will hit hard and a major cycle is due. COF report looks bearish with placements higher than expected and market is overbought going into it. Cold storage for bellies was also rather bearish and should impact hogs, which have weak cycles next week anyway.Continue reading
Looks like stocks will recover on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (1/26) So a tag team with the Treasury Secretary talking down the dollar the last few days and Trump talking it back up. Created a lot of craziness for the markets on Thursday and now we have to wait for his DAVOS speech. Looks like stocks will recover on Friday.Continue reading
Friday looks higher for grains
FOR FRIDAY: (1/26) Trump talked the dollar back up but will it last? If it does, grains have little reason to stay higher if SA weather finds some rain. Friday looks higher. Trade also waiting on the COF for Friday.Continue reading
NQ 7000 was too much for even-number “sell junkies”
FOR THURSDAY: (1/25) NQ 7000 was too much for even number “sell junkies” and Paulson’s statement sent the dollar to the worst start in 30 years.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/25) We had talked about a cycle low into Wednesday but gave up on it when the market just kept going up. Day-trade hotline sold 2854 but took quick profits and our buy at 2842 and 2840.50 didn’t get cancelled as 2856 just missed printing and we took two 10-12 point losses. Is the market matching the correction we saw on Jan. 16, which would project 2815? While we do have to worry about rising rates, not quite thinking this market is done or that a 70- or 100-point correction is starting here but a close under 2810 might change our mind.
Grains usually lower on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (1/25) The last day and we gave up on our numbers from weeks ago and they finally came in and then some. The higher dollar and higher crude are very helpful now and we wonder if our cycle lows into the end of the month will manifest or not. Usually we can count on grains being lower on Thursdays and the 29/30-day cycle is weak so let’s see what develops. If they don’t go down much on Thursday, a divergent high is possible on Friday.Continue reading
Cattle overbought ahead of COF
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/24) Have to get a bit more aggressive chasing short grains but they are still subject to weather. Seasonally one wants to be short the third week of January into early Feb. and cycles do look weak. Cattle have been subjected to winter conditions but should get some sell the fact action happening and they are overbought.Continue reading
Chance for a stock market pullback into Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/24) Latest Washington gridlock: will we see Schumer taking away Trump’s wall by the Feb. 8 budget deadline. Still, that’s plenty of time for the market to go up. We have a chance for a stock market pullback into Wednesday and then it would be a buy but we can’t count on pullbacks. Dollar breakdown below 9000 is rather ominous.Continue reading
Past cycles suggest a 2-day pullback
FOR TUESDAY: (1/23) Not sure what the next crisis will bring but market continues its massive self-generating upward movement and it seems pointless to look for a pullback. Past cycles suggest a 2-day pullback but bears easily get killed picking tops so if we get one, we can buy. Dollar looks higher now for a few weeks and crude may retrace a few days and this is buy and time’s up for metals to rally, and they’re struggling and we need to start selling.Continue reading
Have to be patient for key numbers to come in
FOR TUESDAY: (1/23) Missed fills on Monday and have to be patient for key numbers to come in. Need to complete research around cycles later in the week so will work on that the next few days. Not seeing anything exciting unless we can get key numbers fulfilled. Continue reading
Cycles suggest lower dollar, higher crude
FOR MONDAY: (1/22) There is a budget ceiling vote being called at 10 pm ET on Friday. The markets are optimistic, with NQ and SP making new highs on the day. Always find it hard to trade these gap ups or gap downs unless there’s a clear pattern completion and oversold or overbought condition to go the other way on. Our cycle work has suggested lower dollar and higher crude. We hate these days where key numbers are on the edge of breaking and waiting for the news to come out. They’re tradable with breakout and breakdown stops but not when they happen over the weekend and gaps happen. In the end the trade should be getting frustrated with the kick the can action and more importantly the FBI/DOJ scandal is likely to erupt big time.