FOR TUESDAY: (1/23) Not sure what the next crisis will bring but market continues its massive self-generating upward movement and it seems pointless to look for a pullback. Past cycles suggest a 2-day pullback but bears easily get killed picking tops so if we get one, we can buy. Dollar looks higher now for a few weeks and crude may retrace a few days and this is buy and time’s up for metals to rally, and they’re struggling and we need to start selling.Continue reading
Have to be patient for key numbers to come in
FOR TUESDAY: (1/23) Missed fills on Monday and have to be patient for key numbers to come in. Need to complete research around cycles later in the week so will work on that the next few days. Not seeing anything exciting unless we can get key numbers fulfilled. Continue reading
Cycles suggest lower dollar, higher crude
FOR MONDAY: (1/22) There is a budget ceiling vote being called at 10 pm ET on Friday. The markets are optimistic, with NQ and SP making new highs on the day. Always find it hard to trade these gap ups or gap downs unless there’s a clear pattern completion and oversold or overbought condition to go the other way on. Our cycle work has suggested lower dollar and higher crude. We hate these days where key numbers are on the edge of breaking and waiting for the news to come out. They’re tradable with breakout and breakdown stops but not when they happen over the weekend and gaps happen. In the end the trade should be getting frustrated with the kick the can action and more importantly the FBI/DOJ scandal is likely to erupt big time.
Grains look a bit overbought
FOR MONDAY: (1/22) Grains look a bit overbought with topping action due by Sunday night and then lower action into Wednesday. Seasonally, they often turn down after Jan. 20 but not sure ideal price patterns will come in. Meats also look like topping action will hit on Monday and be followed by lower prices into Wednesday.
MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/22) Wheat failed but we still have to see how it comes in on Sunday night before putting out orders. Probably will see 428 but a push through 431 would accelerate the market to 440 and set up some hedging. Can’t rule a breakout but not that excited to buy near major resistance.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.
Everyone waiting on the budget ceiling
FOR FRIDAY: (1/19) We have very little to add from the morning report, as everyone is waiting on the budget ceiling, and markets are close to breaking down but good news and they will go to upper targets that haven’t come in like 1348 on gold or 2820 on the S & P or 8964 or 8936 on the dollar. If there’s no agreement by late Friday, then all craziness will happen on Sunday night and it won’t be very tradable.
Government is good to at waiting to the last minute but we do sense they will come up with something before the markets’ up on Sunday night but who wants to gamble on these gaps? At publication, it appears that the House will pass but that the Senate will not.
Some minor weather supporting Argentine corn prices
FOR FRIDAY: (1/19) Some minor weather supporting Argentine corn prices and it’s welcome, and wheat may get pulled up in the process. We originally had higher grains into Monday and will stick with that forecast. Cattle also looking good into Monday.
MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/19) We’re open to 357 or 359 coming in by Monday if Argentine weather concerns accelerate the market. Gift for hedging and selling if it happens. Not putting orders in early.
NEAR TERM: On the next push down, the market may hit 338.50 if you’re patient. Trade will probably do short-covering into Friday and Monday.
OVERALL: Weekly chart trendline support is at 338 and that seems a natural place this market will go this winter. Computer models give a small chance for 320 but we’re dubious.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.
Starting to believe more in the dollar
FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Basically, the market remains invincible although Bitcoin is starting to live up to its worry model. Starting to believe more in the dollar–and if Congress comes through they will confirm our cycles and punch through 9100, and that will confirm the break on gold needed to 1292. Markets still in a holding pattern and even the double-top on stocks isn’t as strong as a new high.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Sucker-punch day and the move to 2809 should easily generate 2820 next. Patterns are projecting 2856 but we’re not quite ready to embrace that. Proportions for a double-top don’t quite look right so a quick push up to 2818-20 is more likely to happen. Market may have a dip near the open on Thursday but have to assume it will continue on its merry way higher. The budget deficit is the only albatross out there hanging on the market and it hasn’t been a huge game changer. The feeling is that Congress will pass a one-month budget and kick the can down the road to have more time to iron things out.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.
Cattle looking good into Monday
FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Some minor weather supporting Argentine corn prices and it’s welcome, and wheat may get pulled up in the process. We originally had higher grains into Monday and will stick with that forecast. Cattle also looking good into Monday.
MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/18) Wheat rallied to the upper target and computer models give an 80% chance for a move to 409 now. Still, corn is moving higher and there are some weather concerns so we’ll defer to cycles and see where the market is into Monday. Not wanting to see 429 come out but worth a sale or scalpers. Cycles are somewhat positive but this market is bear and technicals and fundamentals are fading.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.
Post-3-day weekend reversal for stocks
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) While it looks like we got the post-3-day weekend reversal for stocks, not confirmed yet for gold and the dollar or crude although they are stalling. We do have the budget deficit and Bitcoin falling out of bed on Asian crackdowns on Bitcoin action. Cycles remain a bit volatile still but given buy energy for stocks we wouldn’t be shocked to get a rubber band bounce by the morning.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) Our day-trade update sold 2806 and took nice profits but had suggested that the market needed to go to key MA support near 2770. Are we starting the 70-point pullback? A sale near 2800 was a natural think to do and cycle had pointed lower this week but we’re so jaded on expecting pullbacks. Daily chart patterns point to 2692 if acceleration now happens through 2665. Have seen so many suck punches that even if want to sell we need to wait for a 62% retracement up toward 2793.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.
Beans worth buying, not corn, wheat
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) We think beans are worth buying but won’t touch corn or wheat. Cycles are positive for meats into Friday and next Monday but have to be careful with their volatility.
MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/17) Can’t get too excited here. Corn held key support at 345-46 and not thinking 344 will come out but bearish patterns project 339, and wheat is in trouble and there’s no news to bring grains to life. Not going to play longs. If we hit 339 and have a strong bounce, then that might change our minds for a scalp play. Such a counter-trend play is not worth doing.
NEAR TERM: Market may hit 338.50 if you’re patient. Trade will probably do short-covering on Friday.
OVERALL: Weekly chart trendline support is at 338 and that seems a natural place this market will go this winter. Computer models give a small chance for 320 but we’re dubious.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.