FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/13) The December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released Tuesday with few major changes in the numbers, though the ripple effect increases projected wheat and soybean stocks for the 2017-18 crop by a comparable 25 million bushels while lowering corn ending stocks by 50 million bushels.Continue reading
Trade awaiting FOMC on Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: (12/12) Trade waiting on FOMC for Wednesday. Everyone expects a rate hike but will Yellen throw out any grenades for her final post-FOMC speech? Christmas cookies and champagne as usual. Not much happening on Tuesday.Continue reading
The 29/30 day cycles seem bearish for Tuesday’s grain report
FOR TUESDAY: (12/12) The 29/30 day cycles seem bearish for Tuesday’s grain report but we’re open to a surprise given larger friendly cycles into Friday and Sunday. Would think that beans will hold 974.50 and recover and wheat and corn patterns are done so any breaks here wouldn’t be great. Gambling a bit for higher prices but the bears continue to be in control and so just risking small amounts.Continue reading
Trade eyeing FOMC
FOR FRIDAY: (12/8) Kick-the-can down the alley has happened with the House of Representatives, working against a Friday midnight deadline, approving legislation to fund a wide range of federal programs through Dec. 22 and sent it to the Senate, which approved it as well. The White House has said Trump will sign it into law. With a Congressional recess starting Dec. 16, they have another week to duke it out. In the meantime, FOMC is sneaking up next week so not likely to get acceleration with anything until that gets out of the way.Continue reading
Friday looks mixed for grains
FOR FRIDAY: (12/8) While grain cycles look higher Dec. 10-15, Friday looks mixed and grains are all on the edge at key numbers. Buying Sunday may be easier if there are no major breaks or surprises. Cycle highs dominate for hogs and cattle next week with Friday a transition day and we’ll feel better buying on Monday.
MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/8) We didn’t quite get filled and still have a chance to buy slightly lower and not needing to chase. Market should hold up into Dec. 17-18. Overall, March needs to move at least another 14 cents higher from this upcoming low–and if 349 holds, then 363 would be the projected move.
OVERALL: After the first week of December, seasonally the market is often sideways to lower; could hold up into Dec. 15-18 at best.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday; higher Dec. 10-17.
Debt ceiling issues loom
FOR THURSDAY: (12/7) While the debt ceiling is an issue, the Treasury can find emergency money buy borrowing from the Government employee pension fund like they have done before. The U.S. Treasury would exhaust all of its borrowing options and run dry of cash to pay its bills by late March or early April if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling before then, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday. “If the debt limit remains unchanged, the ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will be exhausted and the Treasury will most likely run out of cash by late March or early April 2018,” it said. So Friday’s deadline is a bit artificialland we wonder if the meeting with Bernie Saunders and Elizabeth Warren and Trump will produce any progress.Continue reading
Bean cycles weaker than grains
FOR THURSDAY (12/7) Bean cycles are weaker than the rest of the grains and usually we don’t push longs on Thursday but larger cycles suggest that we can be long wheat and corn for a few days. Cattle is seasonally lower into Dec. 10 and looks like it’s in trouble so still can sell one more day or so.Continue reading
Gold looks like a bounce from Wednesday’s low
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/6) Should be a mini-climax overnight for stocks and we should get a rubber-band bounce as is often the case here. Tensions over the debt ceiling may fray nerves. Gold looks like a bounce from Wednesday’s low into Friday so too late to sell.Continue reading
Cattle, hogs looking higher on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY (12/5) Grains are in transition on Wednesday and we’ll put orders in, as many could bottom early and then close higher and be higher the rest of the week. Cattle should be higher another day and usually we can count on hogs being higher on Wednesday.Continue reading
Congestion triangle pattern setting up
FOR TUESDAY: (12/5) Chances are a congestion triangle is forming on stocks and once you recognize the pattern it is rather predictable. We can get away with short stocks into early Wednesday and should get a bounce to get in from. Hoping we can get into short gold also. Scared about the dollar with the budget ceiling finally getting paid attention to.Continue reading