FOR THURSDAY: (11/30) Month-end profit-taking could hit on Thursday and market volatility is up and bubbles are bursting even with Bitcoin. Still, energy may remain optimistic overnight and could bleed into Thursday if they like progress on the tax bill. We can’t count on bubble bursting energy and even NQ’s free fall today was a technology glitch by Fidelity. The employment report is not until Dec. 8 and somehow we thought it was Friday and now the budget deficit ceiling deadline and employment report bleed into the 8th. Have to think the trade will get nervous after this weekend but we continue to rely on patterns and technicals to keep us of trouble. Very key minimum weekly chart resistance is close at 2640. Near the close, after a full day of debating the GOP tax reform bill, the Senate has now approved a motion to…drum roll please…debate the GOP tax reform bill.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/29) Will North Korea’s latest missile test upset the bull? Sometimes for 1-2 days but usually not more. The peak of a speculative bubble cycle is due by Sunday and that may mean that stocks and Bitcoin finally take a rest after that and bank profits before Christmas. Upper targets for stocks that we thought might take until 2018 are close at 2640 now on the S & P. We still see a June 2018 cycle high for stocks so it is not over. Congress does need to agree on a budget ceiling extensions with that key date into Dec. 8. Any major rambling and rumblings and the market might get upset but the thought is that they will come up with a stop-gap remedy. We should start to congest early week gains for now.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (11/28) Mondays often have to be discounted as a throw away day and volume usually increases on Tuesday. The week of employment report is often congestive and we’re still dealing with month-end position squaring into Thursday. Congress will recess on Dec. 14-15 and the thought is that they will do a stop-gap extension for weeks for the Dec. 8 government funding ceiling and try to pass something shortly thereafter. It’s thought that the first week of Congress being back will focus on the Tax bill, and getting that through will be crucial for the bulls–and we’re skeptical given cycles and where markets are and the way they’re acting.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (11/27) Thin holiday trading can be exaggerated. Expecting topping action on S & P by Monday, as cycles turn negative later into the week. Dollar move not a panic sell unless it closes below 9295. Will have to confirm cycle highs on the dollar for Dec. 10. Gold cycles are weak this week.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (11/27) We knew that 2600 would come out easily. Projection first is to 2609.75 with parabolic support at 2596.75 not likely to come out easily. For now the market still is up into Monday with resistance at 2612 and key resistance at 2617 on cash. We looked at next week and it could take until Dec. 1-3 to get cash up to 2617 so if we get no downside follow-through starting Tuesday, market will be congestive mode. Patterns seem clear.

OVERALL: Expecting topping action by Monday, as cycles turn negative later into the week into Dec. 1st. The divergent high to 2607 may come and maybe cash will get up to 2617. We’re seeing at least a 110-point fall to 2485. Lower target is possible to 2400-2385. It does look like a Christmas recovery will happen the week of Dec. 11-15 and possibly into the Dec. 22.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Monday; lower into Thursday; higher Friday.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: (11/24) Thin holiday trading can be exaggerated and we’re only interested in buying T-notes if we can get in tonight. Dollar move not a panic sell unless it closes below 9295. Will have to confirm cycle highs on the dollar for Dec. 10.Continue reading