Will favor the larger patterns

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/22) Will anyone be home and trading? Always worried about thin holiday conditions which make stop placement precarious. We will go with the larger patterns and see if we can survive crazy holiday conditions. Usually we find that patterns get completed after the long weekend if we are patient but if we see the wrong cycles we may have to get out.Continue reading

Cattle may continue short-covering

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/22) Never fond of holiday trade so best to continue to take profits on short cattle and long wheat, and we’re ok holding long beans. We do see higher grains next week and hogs look like they will bottom early next week and turn up into Dec. 1st. Cattle may continue short-covering and set up new shorts by early next week.Continue reading

Still like short gold, silver

FOR TUESDAY: (11/21) Always worried about thin holiday conditions which make stop placement precarious. We still like short gold and silver and long crude and will go with those new trades. We also like long stocks but want to make sure there are not any nasty surprises in the morning.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (11/21) We had hoped for a congestive few days between 2562-2585 but probably won’t get it. In the end, with thin holiday volume, the market should reach up to 2605 on futures with extensions up to 2617 on cash which will be close on futures. Ideally we could see a top by Monday with end of the month profit-taking likely into Nov. 30. These markets will often do a lot on Wednesday night/Thursday/Thursday night around Thanksgiving and you have to take home length to catch it. We had thought that Tuesday might be the strongest day higher.

Resistance overnight at 2689 and support at 2577-8. May have to buy that dip. The worst-case scenario would be an overnight dip to 2562.50, which would have to be bought also.

OVERALL: The market did generate a negative weekly chart close and a first Hindenburg signal so we’re right about topping action here but it will always go a bit more than expected and these 4th-wave fake-outs are frustrating. The divergent high to 2607 may come and maybe cash will get up to 2617. We’re seeing at least a 110-point fall to 2485. Lower target is possible to 2400-2385. It does look like a Christmas recovery will happen the week of Dec. 11-15 and possibly into the Dec. 22.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Tuesday; sideways to higher Wednesday/Thursday; pulling back Friday; higher Monday.

Corn: One more slight new low

FOR TUESDAY: (11/21) The week of Thanksgiving is usually higher for grains and we can still buy for a few days as grains are usually higher through the first part of Thanksgiving week.Continue reading

Stocks look higher on Sunday

FOR MONDAY: (11/20) We’re happy to put this whippy week behind us.  The problem is that thin holiday action before Thanksgiving can be either non-eventful or too crazy in going after stops in thin conditions. Our strategy is usually not to trade too much before Thanksgiving and my trading tutors have always taught that Nov 8-Dec. 31 is a thinner volume atmosphere.

Lately weekend politics has been tricky and China implosions are always negative possible events for Sunday night. We think stocks are lower on Sunday anyway. Still, eventually, given the breakout and new highs on NQ, we have to assume that SP cash could get to 2617 before all is done. Last few days have been difficult, as we have had a number of larger 4th waves that seemed like trend changes but then they are recovering to keep the trend intact. New highs on NQ remind us that it’s too early to write the stock market’s obituary.

Grains usually higher Thanksgiving week

FOR MONDAY: (11/20) The week of Thanksgiving is usually higher for grains and we can still buy for a few days still and usually they’re higher through the first party of Thanksgiving week. Cattle on Feed report was bearish but will be hard to get in but may get a chance with lower action for a few days. Hogs probably lower a few days.Continue reading

Stocks looking higher Friday into Sunday

FOR FRIDAY: (11/17) Last few days have been difficult, as we have had a number of larger 4th waves that seemed like trend changes but then they are recovering to keep the trend intact. New highs on NQ remind us that it’s too early to write the stock market’s obituary. All we had is a complex 4th wave into Wednesday’s low and the trade did what they did best—buy the dips! Action should continue overnight and on Friday but Sunday and Monday look lower. We’re sensing that the wild moves in gold and the dollar and t-notes the last few days weren’t game changers but just parts of complex congestion patterns. Still, we have to be patient before tipping our foot back in the water and are waiting for more clues. We’re getting close to Thanksgiving next week and thin volume and we need to see some definitive patterns by Monday; otherwise, we may end up with holiday congestive messes.

Trade awaiting Cattle on Feed report

FOR FRIDAY: (11/17) Trade waiting on the Cattle on Feed report. Not expecting much from grains but some short-covering could happen if the trade is worried about delays in harvest. Boring activity. Usually the Monday before Thanksgiving is a buy.Continue reading

Long Term Overview 2019-2023

Fortucast Blog - Long Term Forcast

LOOKING AHEAD INTO 2019-2023

By Barry Rosen

(8/4) Subscribers often want me to do long-term forecasting and I have stayed away from it over the past years because our world changes so quickly and difficult problems are being solved by new technologies. At the same time, the Central Banker/ Military Industrial Complex, media whitewash continues to leave us wondering about the end game as historically the world has never built up these unsustainable levels of debt that cannot end prettily without massive changes and reality checks that our leaders do not want to do. Even Trump’s 10 year balanced budget proposal is fraught with the naïve notion that we can have 3% growth over the next 10 year which has never happened.

No one is addressing the notion that the glories of Detroit and the wonder of the glorified industrial age can not repeat on dreams of electric cars that run by themselves. Meanwhile Amazon and Walmart continue to take over the world and price everyone out of business and kill main street America. We wonder why we struggle. Automation and robotics continue to make people less important and our government is supporting the oligarchy in their profitable questing at the expense of struggling real people. We are heading toward a climax into 2019-20 with regard to all of this. People are anxious now but I suspect the real trouble will come in a few years based on larger cycles at work.

On May 24, we began a new 140-year cycle that we have not seen since 1853-1859. We will see more of its impact from March 2018 to Feb. 2025. It is complex but it is connected to schemes, inflation, conspiracies, grand governmental plans to make everything bigger in scope. Historical we saw this the last time this cycle happened, we had a lot of folly. . For example in Oct. 1853, on the east coast of the United States, Donald McKay launches the Great Republic, the world’s biggest sailing ship, which at 4,500 tons is too large to be successful. The recent launch of the world’s largest plane is a modern comparison.

This cycle can inflate but in the end it deflates as high hopes crumble. Uber is putting cabbies out of business but losing millions on paper as are many other Silicon Valley startups. This new cycle that began in mid June 2017 will also support supports the film industry, raw cotton, medicine, surgical goods, tobacco, drugs, chemicals and perfumes. A smaller cycle from Sept. 2017-Sept. 2018 will enhance the growth in these industries so if we get stock pullbacks into Sept/October this year, these areas may be places to buy.

This cycle also rules socialism so the Bernie movement will probably come back strongly from 2018 onward but it also contributes to political instability as if we do not have enough of.

The darker side of this cycle is secret societies and conspiracies and we have to be concerned that the Deep State will be emboldened to create more smoke and mirror deception until maybe Jan 2019 when that bubble will break. For now they will probably get more powerful.

This summer there are a number of heavy cycles for suggesting social unrest, violence and upheaval in the US. There is some kind of major event the last few weeks of August connected to the first total solar eclipse crossing the entire US since 1918. That was the year of the Spanish Influenza outbreak and we wonder if some false flag epidemic will happen. More than likely, we will continue to have scandals erupting exposing the corruption within religious, educational, and legal institutions.

HISTORY AND SECRET SOCIETIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE

Most of you know that the Federal Reserve bank is privately owned with share-holds in foreign countries such as the Rothchilds. The United States has been under economic tyranny ever since 1913 when the Federal Reserve was signed into law by then president Woodrow Wilson. In its 104 year history the Federal Reserve has never once been audited by any independent government or private agency. There is a total lack of transparency where the Fed is concerned. The Fed acts as a law unto itself. It creates fiat currency out of nothing and charges the US government and therefore the tax payer interest on it. This is something for nothing usury at the highest level—the ultimate Ponzi scheme. The Fed does whatever it wants with regard to foreign banks with no accountability to congress or the general public. If established political, economic, and industrial social and physical infrastructures potentially fail, its very possible that the US will break into regions and people are forced to survive in their local communities human society will be forced to reinvent itself. There is some kind of climax around 2019-20 for this. Exactly what will happen is unclear but I think we have another year to focus on self-sufficient agricultural in our homes with hydroponic pod gardens where you can grow vegetables in the corner of your apartment.

LOOKING AHEAD: 2020

There is a huge climax into January 13, 2020 when the karmic backlash of the abuse of power and the misuse of advanced technology can be the most severe. This could lead to unleashing of deadly power in the hands of organized purposeful institutionalized groups like the Deep State. Still on the bright side, there is a chance to overcome the our most destructive spiritual ignorance, and our deepest fears which have manifested as the institutionalized evil of oppression tyranny and war.

Also in 2020 there are a number of key cycles that important which indicate a new populist experiment in religious , economic, and political and social organization. The alternative would be an increase in more evil, contemptuous and brazen out of control elitist corruption. It could also indicate hyperinflation necessitating the creation of a new more just monetary system.

Many larger cycles have created a fear of closure. Many people today sense a global “end of times” feeling, particularly because of the decline of natural resources, the rapid extinction of species, and the intensification of extreme weather patterns. Will there be a new dawn following the dissolution of so much that has been taken for granted?

THE 33-38 YEAR CYCLE: 2020

There is a key 33-38 year cycle happening in 2020. This meeting of forces represents, among other things, the redistribution of power in the world or, in other words, which faction will make the decisions that affect the greater collective, whether this occurs in plain sight or behind the scenes. From a spiritual perspective, this cycle reflects a rite of passage determining who is most qualified to be the custodian of resources, and thus regulates who will be in a position of influence. In its purest form, this cycle is one of the highest tests of integrity and morality for those in authority, along with a test of capacity and resilience. Beyond the management of power, this cycle is also about the skill to increase power and the value of resources.

This cycle reflects a lesson about the right use of power, so this cycle is also associated with corruption and abuse. Since it holds the key to the “bank coffers,” it also describes the temptation to disregard moral standards and use global resources to satisfy one’s greed. It would seem that there will be a climax for the IMF, the Central Banks and the Military Industrial Complex are set for a reckoning. Sooner or later, corruption is exposed and this cycle represents the karmic consequences of misaligned actions.

Interestingly, David Rockefeller, one of the richest and most influential bankers in the world, was born under this cycle, and so were Rupert Murdoch (opposition), head of a massive media empire, and Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft and listed as the wealthiest person in the world for a number of years. Similarly, Saudi Arabia, a country that possesses some of the largest supplies of oil in the world, was established under this cycle. So a deep complex reckoning will need to happen. Despite his seemingly philanthropic nature, Bill Gates, spearheading dangerous vaccinations in Africa, is doing the bidding of those that favor depopulation.

HISTORY OF THE 33-38 YEAR CYCLE:

Looking back at previous 33-38 year cycles, we have always seen major events happening. One of the last times we saw this cycle was in in October 1914, around the outbreak of World War I. This global conflict certainly reshuffled power dynamics by dissolving the Russian monarchy, the Ottoman Empire, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which led to the redrawing of national borders within Europe. In 1931, the ½ synodic period of this cycle defined an era that included the Great Depression, which started in October 1929, and also the Geneva Convention relative to the ethical treatment of prisoners of war, which entered into effect in July 1931. The next key part of this cycle happened in Oct. 1947 soon after World War II ended; Germany and Japan lost military influence and dominance, and the power struggle between Capitalism and Communism gained greater intensity. In 1947, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose aim is to foster global economic growth and reduce world poverty, began its operations.

The year 1947 also saw the division between India and Pakistan and their establishment as individual sovereignties (today both countries have nuclear weapons); this split cost Mohandas Gandhi his life. In the Middle East, Israel gained independence from the British in 1948, creating an incredibly complex power dynamic in the region, with the return of the Jews’ spiritual influence in the markedly Arab-dominated region. While Israel possesses few natural resources (no oil in an oil-dominated region), the historical significance and spiritual power of the land are certainly the reasons is perhaps the reason for ongoing battles in the region, essentially for control of the holy city of Jerusalem.

The following cycle of 1982 marked a time of economic recession in the world, with the highest rate of unemployment in the U.S. since the Great Depression. It also marked the escalation of the Cold War during the Reagan years, later leading to the collapse of the Soviet bloc. Soon after the cycle last peaked, in January 1983, the Kilauea volcano erupted in Hawaii; it has become the longest-lasting volcanic eruption, still flowing in 2015.

OUTLOOK FOR 2020 CYCLE

We can anticipate important changes in the natural resources industry, the banking system, and regional and world leadership, but it is difficult at this point to anticipate what direction this powerful influence will take. We understand that the initial intention of the cycle is to increase value and empower systems, but it is easy to mismanage these influences because they demand high ethical leadership, and therefore we must consider the prospect of a severe economic recession.

We can expect rebellion on both the individual level (people leaving their workplace, reinventing themselves) and the collective level (worldwide protests demanding change). In light of growing separatist sentiment in the US, we may see the secession movement gaining greater momentum.

THE 20-YEAR CYCLE

The 20-year cycle is very key and hits in Dec 2020 and is one of the most important markers representing what direction our lives are taking, personally and socially. It often sets the tone for the “new order” we will all respond to.

The most important cycle in the 20-year cycle will hit December 21, 2020 at a place where economic low points hit. The cycle creates the need for new rises in consciousness but we do not think they will come about until 2023. The climax into late 2020, will force attention to practical and financial matters where the 2023 cycle will bring forth a stronger push for culture, progress, and global emancipation and total freedom from the Deep Sate.

If we contemplate the whole sequence of cyclical events in the year 2020, with its dramatic cyclical alignments, we can anticipate great intensity and changes on many levels. These events will likely have a destructive edge as a new world order is programmed — change is not always a smooth process. However, since all the year’s transits culminate in 2023, we will see new solutions and paradigms emerge. There is a promise of rebirth and a new vision that will gradually unfold in the following months and years.

On a practical level, at Fortucast, we will continue to guide you with our outlook for the future for real estate, equities and precious metals. Still this huge climax in 2020, suggests major restructuring of our political and economic institutions—more so than we have seen since the end of the World War 2. Let hope our leaders are guided to do this peacefully as was the case when the Berlin Wall came down and the Soviet Union crumbled without any major bombs going off.

Barry Rosen, June 14, 2017

Dollar high on Thursday?

FOR THURSDAY: (11/16) Last few days have been difficult, as we got the dollar wrong and even crude and bonds failed to work. Luckily our stock index shorts are working. Whippy action likely to continue with a dollar high on Thursday and gold low.Continue reading