FOR MONDAY: (11/13) We had counted on more downward action on Friday but didn’t get much. The 29/30 day cycles are weak into Wednesday and seasonals are lower usually after the USDA report but Monday could be volatile and whippy if any bullish news comes out. We won’t panic about shorts given seasonals. Cattle are bit oversold and a 2-day bounce would be healthy but not sure they are done yet.Continue reading
Stocks confirm a temporary top
FOR FRIDAY: (11/10) Still not a lot of news but tensions in the Middle East will make taking positions home harder. Stocks fell enough to confirm a temporary top but not confirmed on a closing basis, as the computers bought it back into the close. We do see a number of shifts over the weekend and hope that weekend war news doesn’t create any surprises.Continue reading
Grains look lower on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (11/10) Grains look lower on Friday and there still may be some money to be made but not sure we can hold on if we do get filled very long. Cattle cycles look weaker into the open of Monday but turn volatile.Continue reading
Key cycle Friday for many markets
FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Still a really quiet week on the news front. Key cycle is Friday for many markets so not in a rush to get into major trend changes until Monday. Will assume that gold will hold up. Open to a congestive pullback for stocks for a few days but that seems like a luxury these days.Continue reading
Grains oversold going into USDA report
FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Grains are oversold going into the report and patterns could allow 434 on Dec. wheat and pull corn up and beans are close to a key high. Seasonal pressure till Thanksgiving dominates so we have to use strength to get short. Market looks lower into Friday but then looks like it will bounce early next week. Usually these USDA wash-outs are so steep that the market just crawls out of a deep hole. Cattle and hogs look lower a few more days.Continue reading
S&P has a chance for divergent high on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/8) We have a low-confidence read on the week, with a key cycle into Thursday/Friday suggesting a low for stocks, a high for notes, a low for the dollar and a high for gold and higher prices for crude. We’ll give stocks a chance on Wednesday for a divergent high. No major reports on Wednesday so the trade may have trouble going anywhere.Continue reading
Get prepared for last hedges, spec sales
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/8) Pre-report congestion may take over the market. Will we have to wait until the report to squeeze out pattern completion to 1003 on beans? Cycles turn weak toward the end of the week and we won’t wait around. May be tough choppy trade here and we may have to step aside until it settles. Oct/Nov. grain trading can be rather boring but inevitably the final push lower to harvest usually comes after the USDA report. We do have to get prepared for last hedges and spec sales this week on grains.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/8) Not sure we’re willing to wait for 1002-3 but China news might even get the market higher to 1010. That’s why we can’t be selling. Keep an eye on markets today, as China has just pledged to import more U.S. soybeans during President Donald Trump’s Beijing visit earlier this week, according to one U.S. industry official. Chinese soybean buyers could sign a letter of intent with the U.S. Soybean Export Council committing to an as-now-undisclosed amount of U.S. soybeans.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Wednesday; lower into Friday.
Key cycle into Thursday/Friday
FOR TUESDAY: (11/7) We have a low-confidence read on the week, with a key cycle into Thursday/Friday suggesting a low for stocks, a high for notes, a low for the dollar and a high for gold and higher prices for crude. These markets are overdone from last week so gold retracing to 1290 and the dollar and euro retracing are healthy and crude is breaking out with the close above 5500 and everyone is hopping on board. Never trust the short side of stocks but 2600-4 on the S & P futures is very major resistance for this market and is close.Continue reading
Grains could hold up another day
FOR TUESDAY: (11/7) We may be running out of upward momentum and we can’t stick around too long with grains and action on corn was a failure. Market could hold up another day or two but looks lower into the end of the week.Continue reading
Cycles are mostly positive on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (11/6) Cycles are positive mostly on Monday and the worst of the general cycles that we have gone through are ending over the weekend. That may give bulls a renewed reason to buy stocks. We have a low confidence read on the week but we have completed research on cycles and patterns into Christmas and have reported below.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (11/6) Given Nasdaq’s reaction off of the Wednesday night low and the SP above 2580, we will assume that the correction was over Wednesday night and that there are still two new highs coming. First resistance at 2600-4 on futures and then cash projects 2617-8, which could push futures up to 2620. We’re open for another week up because it might take that long to get that market to those levels, with the earliest time window during the early part of the week.
SHORT-TERM (11/3) Stocks are running out of time at publication. Upper cash pattern completions are at 2617-8. We could see the market hold up as late as Nov. 13 but the market looks lower into Nov. 17 and while the market is often up into Thanksgiving, at best it looks sideways to lower and then lower into Dec. 6-8 around the budget crisis deadline. It does look like a Christmas recovery will happen the week of Dec. 11-15 and possibly into the Dec. 22.
OVERALL: We’ve been watching 2600-4 as a key pattern completion for futures but that could extend to 2615-20 based on cash patterns. At the moment, we can only count on a 110-point pullback into December, which would be less than 5%. We think that 2490-2500 will hold dips this year.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Monday and probably Tuesday/Wednesday.