FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: (11/24) Thin holiday trading can be exaggerated and we’re only interested in buying T-notes if we can get in tonight. Dollar move not a panic sell unless it closes below 9295. Will have to confirm cycle highs on the dollar for Dec. 10.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/22) Will anyone be home and trading? Always worried about thin holiday conditions which make stop placement precarious. We will go with the larger patterns and see if we can survive crazy holiday conditions. Usually we find that patterns get completed after the long weekend if we are patient but if we see the wrong cycles we may have to get out.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (11/21) Always worried about thin holiday conditions which make stop placement precarious. We still like short gold and silver and long crude and will go with those new trades. We also like long stocks but want to make sure there are not any nasty surprises in the morning.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (11/21) We had hoped for a congestive few days between 2562-2585 but probably won’t get it. In the end, with thin holiday volume, the market should reach up to 2605 on futures with extensions up to 2617 on cash which will be close on futures. Ideally we could see a top by Monday with end of the month profit-taking likely into Nov. 30. These markets will often do a lot on Wednesday night/Thursday/Thursday night around Thanksgiving and you have to take home length to catch it. We had thought that Tuesday might be the strongest day higher.

Resistance overnight at 2689 and support at 2577-8. May have to buy that dip. The worst-case scenario would be an overnight dip to 2562.50, which would have to be bought also.

OVERALL: The market did generate a negative weekly chart close and a first Hindenburg signal so we’re right about topping action here but it will always go a bit more than expected and these 4th-wave fake-outs are frustrating. The divergent high to 2607 may come and maybe cash will get up to 2617. We’re seeing at least a 110-point fall to 2485. Lower target is possible to 2400-2385. It does look like a Christmas recovery will happen the week of Dec. 11-15 and possibly into the Dec. 22.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Tuesday; sideways to higher Wednesday/Thursday; pulling back Friday; higher Monday.

FOR MONDAY: (11/20) We’re happy to put this whippy week behind us.  The problem is that thin holiday action before Thanksgiving can be either non-eventful or too crazy in going after stops in thin conditions. Our strategy is usually not to trade too much before Thanksgiving and my trading tutors have always taught that Nov 8-Dec. 31 is a thinner volume atmosphere.

Lately weekend politics has been tricky and China implosions are always negative possible events for Sunday night. We think stocks are lower on Sunday anyway. Still, eventually, given the breakout and new highs on NQ, we have to assume that SP cash could get to 2617 before all is done. Last few days have been difficult, as we have had a number of larger 4th waves that seemed like trend changes but then they are recovering to keep the trend intact. New highs on NQ remind us that it’s too early to write the stock market’s obituary.

FOR FRIDAY: (11/17) Last few days have been difficult, as we have had a number of larger 4th waves that seemed like trend changes but then they are recovering to keep the trend intact. New highs on NQ remind us that it’s too early to write the stock market’s obituary. All we had is a complex 4th wave into Wednesday’s low and the trade did what they did best—buy the dips! Action should continue overnight and on Friday but Sunday and Monday look lower. We’re sensing that the wild moves in gold and the dollar and t-notes the last few days weren’t game changers but just parts of complex congestion patterns. Still, we have to be patient before tipping our foot back in the water and are waiting for more clues. We’re getting close to Thanksgiving next week and thin volume and we need to see some definitive patterns by Monday; otherwise, we may end up with holiday congestive messes.