FOR MONDAY: (11/13) Not seeing a volatile weekend in the world but we do have concerns around the Middle East, and anger and aggression cycles increase Nov. 14-19. Still, there are enough factors that peace should still dominate. The US has a difficult cycle Nov. 15-Dec. 14, and that may create frustration around the tax bill, which is already delayed until January and we wonder when the budget deficit crisis will rear its head. Monday may be a transition day but stocks are topping and getting ready for the next push lower.
Grain cycles look weak into Wednesday
FOR MONDAY: (11/13) We had counted on more downward action on Friday but didn’t get much. The 29/30 day cycles are weak into Wednesday and seasonals are lower usually after the USDA report but Monday could be volatile and whippy if any bullish news comes out. We won’t panic about shorts given seasonals. Cattle are bit oversold and a 2-day bounce would be healthy but not sure they are done yet.Continue reading
Stocks confirm a temporary top
FOR FRIDAY: (11/10) Still not a lot of news but tensions in the Middle East will make taking positions home harder. Stocks fell enough to confirm a temporary top but not confirmed on a closing basis, as the computers bought it back into the close. We do see a number of shifts over the weekend and hope that weekend war news doesn’t create any surprises.Continue reading
Grains look lower on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (11/10) Grains look lower on Friday and there still may be some money to be made but not sure we can hold on if we do get filled very long. Cattle cycles look weaker into the open of Monday but turn volatile.Continue reading
Key cycle Friday for many markets
FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Still a really quiet week on the news front. Key cycle is Friday for many markets so not in a rush to get into major trend changes until Monday. Will assume that gold will hold up. Open to a congestive pullback for stocks for a few days but that seems like a luxury these days.Continue reading
Grains oversold going into USDA report
FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Grains are oversold going into the report and patterns could allow 434 on Dec. wheat and pull corn up and beans are close to a key high. Seasonal pressure till Thanksgiving dominates so we have to use strength to get short. Market looks lower into Friday but then looks like it will bounce early next week. Usually these USDA wash-outs are so steep that the market just crawls out of a deep hole. Cattle and hogs look lower a few more days.Continue reading
S&P has a chance for divergent high on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/8) We have a low-confidence read on the week, with a key cycle into Thursday/Friday suggesting a low for stocks, a high for notes, a low for the dollar and a high for gold and higher prices for crude. We’ll give stocks a chance on Wednesday for a divergent high. No major reports on Wednesday so the trade may have trouble going anywhere.Continue reading
Get prepared for last hedges, spec sales
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/8) Pre-report congestion may take over the market. Will we have to wait until the report to squeeze out pattern completion to 1003 on beans? Cycles turn weak toward the end of the week and we won’t wait around. May be tough choppy trade here and we may have to step aside until it settles. Oct/Nov. grain trading can be rather boring but inevitably the final push lower to harvest usually comes after the USDA report. We do have to get prepared for last hedges and spec sales this week on grains.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/8) Not sure we’re willing to wait for 1002-3 but China news might even get the market higher to 1010. That’s why we can’t be selling. Keep an eye on markets today, as China has just pledged to import more U.S. soybeans during President Donald Trump’s Beijing visit earlier this week, according to one U.S. industry official. Chinese soybean buyers could sign a letter of intent with the U.S. Soybean Export Council committing to an as-now-undisclosed amount of U.S. soybeans.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Wednesday; lower into Friday.
Key cycle into Thursday/Friday
FOR TUESDAY: (11/7) We have a low-confidence read on the week, with a key cycle into Thursday/Friday suggesting a low for stocks, a high for notes, a low for the dollar and a high for gold and higher prices for crude. These markets are overdone from last week so gold retracing to 1290 and the dollar and euro retracing are healthy and crude is breaking out with the close above 5500 and everyone is hopping on board. Never trust the short side of stocks but 2600-4 on the S & P futures is very major resistance for this market and is close.Continue reading
Grains could hold up another day
FOR TUESDAY: (11/7) We may be running out of upward momentum and we can’t stick around too long with grains and action on corn was a failure. Market could hold up another day or two but looks lower into the end of the week.Continue reading