Climax day with employment report

FOR FRIDAY: (11/3) Climax day with employment report. Cycles have a lot of speculative energy so we should see big moves. Dollar would be more complete to the upside to 9556 but not sure we will get it for the ideal short into next week. Gold ideal projection for a short is at 1295-8. NQ fell enough that we don’t need to see 6190 come out before seeing 6300 and APPL beat expectations so will it be sell the fact or run NQ to the moon? Usually you can count on the latter.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (11/3) The 35-point correction is probably in progress toward 2550 but the current movement is probably a b-wave retracement, which means that it will frustrate late bears. Seems unlikely that 2579-80 will easily come in for the B-wave. Still, we’re open to another 22-point push lower from wherever it stops today into Friday and then one more new high. It’s possible that the entire 4th wave is done and new highs to 2605 won’t come next but that is not favored.
NEAR TERM: We’re running out of time to complete upside patterns. Realistically even if we hit 2600-2605, we may only expect a 110-point fall and not a 200-300 point fall but we are closer to something bigger happening.
OVERALL: After the first few weeks of November, market looks lower into Thanksgiving–and if that major target of 2600 does come in, it may set up at least a 110 point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2490, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest, with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday.

Meats should recover some of Thursday’s losses

FOR FRIDAY: (11/3) Grains held up well and had decent comebacks and that will allow us to remain open to selling better levels later. Cycles are mixed on Friday but we’re open to higher prices Sunday and Monday and then we get pre-USDA report congestion ahead of the Nov. 9 report. Meats should recover some of Thursday’s losses and those markets went too far too fast this week. With end of the week position squaring, we’re going to let the markets settle lower.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/3) No reason to sell beans early. Market hit key resistance at 1000.75 with major resistance at 1003.50 and 1010. Market likely to hold 990 on pullbacks. We will hold out for higher prices into next week. Market held key support at 980. That means that pullbacks have been tame and might allow a
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways Friday; higher Sunday and Monday.

Markets should start retracing on Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (11/2) This has been a doggy week and Wednesday’s FOMC action was the least volatile I can remember in 20 years. Trade waiting on employment report but markets are a bit stretched out and should start retracing on Friday.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (11/2) Ended up being a dud day and we can make a case that minimum patterns were completed on the cash charts but 2592 would be more ideal, and that is close to 2590 on futures. Thursday had looked higher but we’re at a point where a 35-point correction on futures would go to 2550 before a new high to 2604-5. If Thursday is sideways without new highs, then a negative employment report could trigger the 35-point correction and then one last new high to 2604. Will look for clues in the morning on how to trade this market. We definitely want to sell a divergent new high or a bad failure. Friday seems like a more secure downward day.
OVERALL: After the first few weeks of November, market looks lower into Thanksgiving–and if that major target of 2600 does come in, it may set up a 300-point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2320, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest, with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Thursday; lower Friday.

Grain recovery into Friday?

FOR THURSDAY: (11/2) Grains held up well and had decent comebacks and that will allow us to continue to be open to selling better levels later. For now we at least expect a recovery into Friday. Cattle still look higher for at least another few days.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/2) Market held key support at 980. That means that pullbacks have been tame and might allow a move to 100.75 into the end of the week or even higher. Support at 988.50 overnight with resistance up to 1000.75 and 1010. We may consider a buy on Thursday if there’s no downward backlash. Risk/reward on buying is gone and we’ll evaluate in the morning.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Friday.

Favoring lower dollars, higher gold into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/1) We have a low-confidence read on the FOMC announcement and reaction. It seems that most of the time the pundits are wrong about these things anyway so you usually can fade the news. At the moment, we have a bias toward lower dollars and higher gold into Friday and lower T-notes into Thursday and a possible pullback for stocks, which of course will be bought. The trade is also waiting on employment report so it could be a big reaction and then another hurry up and wait until Friday.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/1) Not much to add to last night. A bullish FOMC reaction would take the market up to 2588. The worst downside might go to 2553.75 and given the way this market runs, that would be a long shot. Cycles are such that break after the report are there. We often see a move higher 5 points before the news and then a pullback.
OVERALL: After the first few weeks of November, market looks lower into Thanksgiving–and if that major target of 2600 does come in, it may set up a 300-point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2320, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest, with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile Wednesday; higher Thursday.

Meat cycles point higher into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/1) Sometimes first of the month fund buying can save grains but cycles are pretty weak and deflation continues dominate. At this point we have to see what kind of bounce manifests into Friday if we are lucky for grains. Meat cycles also point higher into Friday and despite parabolic movement, it may not stop.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/1) Cycle lows due on Wednesday and then we’ll see what kind of a bounce can manifest into Friday. Key support really needs to hold at 990 if we’re to have any chance for a decent bounce. Too late to sell the last day down.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

Choppy week ahead?

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) End of the month profit-taking may give us a chance to buy from better levels. We do have a sense that the market may have trouble going up much this week. Employment report and FOMC week can be choppy and there are always surprises so we have to trade lightly.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/31) First support is at 2563 with major support at 2553.75. Cycles are positive on Tuesday and we do have end of the month profit-taking coming in. Key daily chart trendline support comes in at 2553.50 and we can’t see the S & P taking out 2548 and given the way this market works, we have to buy this dip.
OVERALL: Market looks lower into Thanksgiving and if that major target of 2600 does come in it may set up a 300-point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2320, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower part of Tuesday; volatile Wednesday; higher Thursday

Meats seasonal low already in?

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) Our sense that we couldn’t sell oversold conditions. We’re approaching end of the month fund position squaring by Tuesday and rollover from Nov. to Jan. beans. We have a bias toward lower grains into Wednesday but can get weird aberrations on position squaring by funds. Given very oversold conditions on grains at key numbers, we have to be patient about selling. Meats are starting to smell winter and cold weather and that’s a reminder that seasonal lows may be in.

DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/31) We’ve been too slow getting orders out. Key support at 348 and only a bounce to 352 might inspire us to get short this market. Major support at 340.50. We’re running out of time but have to be patient. Support is at 344.25 if we get a break below 347.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

Meats seasonal low already in?

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) Our sense that we couldn’t sell oversold conditions. We’re approaching end of the month fund position squaring by Tuesday and rollover from Nov. to Jan. beans. We have a bias toward lower grains into Wednesday but can get weird aberrations on position squaring by funds. Given very oversold conditions on grains at key numbers, we have to be patient about selling. Meats are starting to smell winter and cold weather and that’s a reminder that seasonal lows may be in.

DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/31) We’ve been too slow getting orders out. Key support at 348 and only a bounce to 352 might inspire us to get short this market. Major support at 340.50. We’re running out of time but have to be patient. Support is at 344.25 if we get a break below 347.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

Stocks might crawl slightly higher

FOR MONDAY: (10/23) Despite S & P cycles that look very weak early next week, the other markets suggest that stocks might crawl slightly higher before doing a 30-point pullback. Those looking for crashes will continue to be disappointed this year and at best a 300-point S & P pullback from 2600-2300 might be possible if a minor crisis develops into the end of the year on a US budget crisis.Continue reading