Grains getting close to seasonal low

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/15) Getting close to the seasonal low for grains before Thanksgiving. It may come in by the close of Wednesday, as some cycles look higher now from Thursday into Tuesday. We’re covering Dec. grain hedges to be safe. Meats are in trouble but hogs due for a 1-2 day bounce.Continue reading

Meats due for a few-days bounce

FOR TUESDAY: (11/14) Meats are due for a few days bounce but it may not mean much. Grains look weaker a few more days and beans fell enough to turn charts and start projecting a seasonal low toward 946 by Thanksgiving. Continue to use any strength to get short.Continue reading

US has a difficult cycle Nov. 15-Dec. 14

FOR MONDAY: (11/13) Not seeing a volatile weekend in the world but we do have concerns around the Middle East, and anger and aggression cycles increase Nov. 14-19. Still, there are enough factors that peace should still dominate. The US has a difficult cycle Nov. 15-Dec. 14, and that may create frustration around the tax bill, which is already delayed until January and we wonder when the budget deficit crisis will rear its head. Monday may be a transition day but stocks are topping and getting ready for the next push lower.

Grain cycles look weak into Wednesday

FOR MONDAY: (11/13) We had counted on more downward action on Friday but didn’t get much. The 29/30 day cycles are weak into Wednesday and seasonals are lower usually after the USDA report but Monday could be volatile and whippy if any bullish news comes out. We won’t panic about shorts given seasonals. Cattle are bit oversold and a 2-day bounce would be healthy but not sure they are done yet.Continue reading

Stocks confirm a temporary top

FOR FRIDAY: (11/10) Still not a lot of news but tensions in the Middle East will make taking positions home harder. Stocks fell enough to confirm a temporary top but not confirmed on a closing basis, as the computers bought it back into the close. We do see a number of shifts over the weekend and hope that weekend war news doesn’t create any surprises.Continue reading

Grains look lower on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (11/10) Grains look lower on Friday and there still may be some money to be made but not sure we can hold on if we do get filled very long. Cattle cycles look weaker into the open of Monday but turn volatile.Continue reading

Key cycle Friday for many markets

FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Still a really quiet week on the news front. Key cycle is Friday for many markets so not in a rush to get into major trend changes until Monday. Will assume that gold will hold up. Open to a congestive pullback for stocks for a few days but that seems like a luxury these days.Continue reading

Grains oversold going into USDA report

FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Grains are oversold going into the report and patterns could allow 434 on Dec. wheat and pull corn up and beans are close to a key high. Seasonal pressure till Thanksgiving dominates so we have to use strength to get short. Market looks lower into Friday but then looks like it will bounce early next week. Usually these USDA wash-outs are so steep that the market just crawls out of a deep hole. Cattle and hogs look lower a few more days.Continue reading

S&P has a chance for divergent high on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/8) We have a low-confidence read on the week, with a key cycle into Thursday/Friday suggesting a low for stocks, a high for notes, a low for the dollar and a high for gold and higher prices for crude. We’ll give stocks a chance on Wednesday for a divergent high. No major reports on Wednesday so the trade may have trouble going anywhere.Continue reading