Grain recovery into Friday?

FOR THURSDAY: (11/2) Grains held up well and had decent comebacks and that will allow us to continue to be open to selling better levels later. For now we at least expect a recovery into Friday. Cattle still look higher for at least another few days.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/2) Market held key support at 980. That means that pullbacks have been tame and might allow a move to 100.75 into the end of the week or even higher. Support at 988.50 overnight with resistance up to 1000.75 and 1010. We may consider a buy on Thursday if there’s no downward backlash. Risk/reward on buying is gone and we’ll evaluate in the morning.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Friday.

Favoring lower dollars, higher gold into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/1) We have a low-confidence read on the FOMC announcement and reaction. It seems that most of the time the pundits are wrong about these things anyway so you usually can fade the news. At the moment, we have a bias toward lower dollars and higher gold into Friday and lower T-notes into Thursday and a possible pullback for stocks, which of course will be bought. The trade is also waiting on employment report so it could be a big reaction and then another hurry up and wait until Friday.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/1) Not much to add to last night. A bullish FOMC reaction would take the market up to 2588. The worst downside might go to 2553.75 and given the way this market runs, that would be a long shot. Cycles are such that break after the report are there. We often see a move higher 5 points before the news and then a pullback.
OVERALL: After the first few weeks of November, market looks lower into Thanksgiving–and if that major target of 2600 does come in, it may set up a 300-point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2320, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest, with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile Wednesday; higher Thursday.

Meat cycles point higher into Friday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/1) Sometimes first of the month fund buying can save grains but cycles are pretty weak and deflation continues dominate. At this point we have to see what kind of bounce manifests into Friday if we are lucky for grains. Meat cycles also point higher into Friday and despite parabolic movement, it may not stop.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/1) Cycle lows due on Wednesday and then we’ll see what kind of a bounce can manifest into Friday. Key support really needs to hold at 990 if we’re to have any chance for a decent bounce. Too late to sell the last day down.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

Choppy week ahead?

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) End of the month profit-taking may give us a chance to buy from better levels. We do have a sense that the market may have trouble going up much this week. Employment report and FOMC week can be choppy and there are always surprises so we have to trade lightly.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/31) First support is at 2563 with major support at 2553.75. Cycles are positive on Tuesday and we do have end of the month profit-taking coming in. Key daily chart trendline support comes in at 2553.50 and we can’t see the S & P taking out 2548 and given the way this market works, we have to buy this dip.
OVERALL: Market looks lower into Thanksgiving and if that major target of 2600 does come in it may set up a 300-point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2320, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower part of Tuesday; volatile Wednesday; higher Thursday

Meats seasonal low already in?

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) Our sense that we couldn’t sell oversold conditions. We’re approaching end of the month fund position squaring by Tuesday and rollover from Nov. to Jan. beans. We have a bias toward lower grains into Wednesday but can get weird aberrations on position squaring by funds. Given very oversold conditions on grains at key numbers, we have to be patient about selling. Meats are starting to smell winter and cold weather and that’s a reminder that seasonal lows may be in.

DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/31) We’ve been too slow getting orders out. Key support at 348 and only a bounce to 352 might inspire us to get short this market. Major support at 340.50. We’re running out of time but have to be patient. Support is at 344.25 if we get a break below 347.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

Meats seasonal low already in?

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) Our sense that we couldn’t sell oversold conditions. We’re approaching end of the month fund position squaring by Tuesday and rollover from Nov. to Jan. beans. We have a bias toward lower grains into Wednesday but can get weird aberrations on position squaring by funds. Given very oversold conditions on grains at key numbers, we have to be patient about selling. Meats are starting to smell winter and cold weather and that’s a reminder that seasonal lows may be in.

DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/31) We’ve been too slow getting orders out. Key support at 348 and only a bounce to 352 might inspire us to get short this market. Major support at 340.50. We’re running out of time but have to be patient. Support is at 344.25 if we get a break below 347.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Wednesday; recovering into Friday.

Stocks might crawl slightly higher

FOR MONDAY: (10/23) Despite S & P cycles that look very weak early next week, the other markets suggest that stocks might crawl slightly higher before doing a 30-point pullback. Those looking for crashes will continue to be disappointed this year and at best a 300-point S & P pullback from 2600-2300 might be possible if a minor crisis develops into the end of the year on a US budget crisis.Continue reading

Cycle lows for grains due on Sunday

FOR MONDAY: (10/23) Grains broke hard before weekend harvest and cycle lows are due on Sunday and the rest of next week is higher. Wheat close to key 423 support and corn close to 440.50, and beans should hold 972. Beans have the best chance of a new high if you have to buy. Cattle on feed report was negative.Continue reading

New highs on SP Friday?

FOR FRIDAY: (10/20) Pre-weekend jitters again may create sideways markets with a lot of release due Sunday/Monday. If stocks do not do much to the upside on Friday, they could make new lows on Monday/Tuesday but we are inclined to expect new highs on SP on Friday as the bargain-hunters are back in and greed is unquenchable. We often trade lightly on Fridays but are willing to take some positions home.Continue reading

Cattle may continue short-covering before COF

FOR FRIDAY: (10/20) October and November can be doggy months to trade grains, which stay in tighter ranges and sometimes you have to wait a while for key numbers and patterns to come in. We’re working on grain cycles for the next six weeks the next few days and we’ll have more insights as to final patterns and timing to report soon. For now we have a bias toward higher prices into at least Tuesday or Wednesday but not exciting to be long before harvest hedging sets in. Cattle may continue short-covering before the Cattle on Feed Report due out on Friday. Hogs look higher into next week but we need a pullback to buy from the report.Continue reading