FOR THURSDAY: (10/5) Trade likely to be quiet before employment but not seeing anything that will knock the stock market down until next week. Gold could have a breakdown but not likely before a major report and then we have to decide how much to hold going into going into Friday.Continue reading
Grain cycles volatile next few days
FOR THURSDAY: (10/5) There are very volatile cycles that dominate the next few days. Two years ago when we saw them, they created cycle high for grains and lows for cattle. They appear to be inverting so far but given the level of intensity, we still could see grains come off their lows and meat still reverse. Given a horrible week, we’re going to wait for this cycle to get out of the way.Continue reading
Complicated congestion patterns this week
FOR TUESDAY: (10/3) Employment report week often has a wide-range day on Monday and then a lot of complicated congestion patterns. While the SP cash has completed a minimum weekly chart pattern, short-term patterns still point higher this week and our monthly letter projects 2657 into 2018. We usually like the dust to settle on Monday but it is first of the month fund buying and also October seasonal buying for stocks, and they continue to be greedy despite larger and deeper technicals that are suggesting tiring.Continue reading
Cycles, seasonals positive this week
FOR TUESDAY: (10/3) Cycles and seasonals are positive this week and this week hold the best chance for gains and then some sideways congestion early next week before the next USDA report. We need to complete more research on cattle and hogs to have a clearer vision on trading for the month of October. We can buy grains on dips this week, as seasonals are supportive, the markets are oversold and cycles are friendly.Continue reading
Dollar retracement into Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (10/2) We took profits on a number of positions rather than get surprised by the Catalan referendum, which is now turning into a police state event. Our work suggests a dollar retracement into Tuesday and that should mean a pop in gold. Stocks are close to very major number at 2520 on the S & P but no major short until Oct 8.Continue reading
Grains setting up for buys
FOR MONDAY: We can buy grains on dips this week as seasonals are supportive, the markets are oversold and cycles are friendly. Cattle look lower this week and need a rally on Monday to get short into Thursday. Hogs aren’t clear and are complicated with many crosscurrents and will let the dust settle.Continue reading
Position squaring likely on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (9/29) Position squaring by funds and others at the end of the month should dominate. Trade is often gun shy in taking a position, especially with N. Korea in the background. Market should be getting ready of first of month stock buying on Monday but we are very close to key stock market high.Continue reading
Grain cycles look higher next week
FOR FRIDAY: Not sure we learned anything from Thursday action as key numbers held. Cycles are weak the next few days but there are always those USDA surprises and crazy fund gyrations. We’ll probably have to move stops down on some contracts on Friday. Cycles next week look higher but the verdict is out on Friday and month-end fund position squaring will muddle the picture. If we hold beans through the report, we’ll have a tight stop in place and wheat remains on the edge. Corn isn’t likely to take out 360 so we’ll position trade and wait for it to break.Continue reading
Stocks close to a fall high
FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) Thursday should continue the weekly trend but by Friday profit-taking and pre-weekend jitters should sneak in. Still, stocks are close to a fall high and it should complete the week of Oct. 1st.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) We got long on the early dip and didn’t get the upside breakout we wanted to see but cycles appear likely to hold up on Thursday before profit-taking sets in on Friday. New highs to 2409 were supportive on Wednesday with major support now at 2398 and 2494.50. If the market can take out 2510, then a blast up to 2520-22 is very possible. Will peel off profits on strength.
NEAR TERM: Looking at next week, the October top could come in as soon as Monday with Oct. 6 being a secondary high. The weeks of Oct. 8-20 are the ones that look more like the market will be in trouble.
OVERALL: As long as 2487 holds, the market needs two more new highs to complete the latest pattern into October before a break. We had thought at least 2520 would come in with now an upper target to 2525. Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Thursday; lower Friday; higher Monday; lower Tuesday; secondary high by Oct. 6.
Grain cycles peak overnight, then sideways
FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) We got a bounce on Wednesday with wheat completing a key pattern and beans doing a weak bounce corn being pretty sideways. Cycles peak overnight and then should be sideways before the stocks report. The USDA report on Friday and then end of the month position squaring should create illogical crosscurrents and new trading may not be advised. Will want to exit some positions on Thursday before grain reports.Continue reading