FOR FRIDAY: Not sure we learned anything from Thursday action as key numbers held. Cycles are weak the next few days but there are always those USDA surprises and crazy fund gyrations. We’ll probably have to move stops down on some contracts on Friday. Cycles next week look higher but the verdict is out on Friday and month-end fund position squaring will muddle the picture. If we hold beans through the report, we’ll have a tight stop in place and wheat remains on the edge. Corn isn’t likely to take out 360 so we’ll position trade and wait for it to break.Continue reading
Stocks close to a fall high
FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) Thursday should continue the weekly trend but by Friday profit-taking and pre-weekend jitters should sneak in. Still, stocks are close to a fall high and it should complete the week of Oct. 1st.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) We got long on the early dip and didn’t get the upside breakout we wanted to see but cycles appear likely to hold up on Thursday before profit-taking sets in on Friday. New highs to 2409 were supportive on Wednesday with major support now at 2398 and 2494.50. If the market can take out 2510, then a blast up to 2520-22 is very possible. Will peel off profits on strength.
NEAR TERM: Looking at next week, the October top could come in as soon as Monday with Oct. 6 being a secondary high. The weeks of Oct. 8-20 are the ones that look more like the market will be in trouble.
OVERALL: As long as 2487 holds, the market needs two more new highs to complete the latest pattern into October before a break. We had thought at least 2520 would come in with now an upper target to 2525. Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Thursday; lower Friday; higher Monday; lower Tuesday; secondary high by Oct. 6.
Grain cycles peak overnight, then sideways
FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) We got a bounce on Wednesday with wheat completing a key pattern and beans doing a weak bounce corn being pretty sideways. Cycles peak overnight and then should be sideways before the stocks report. The USDA report on Friday and then end of the month position squaring should create illogical crosscurrents and new trading may not be advised. Will want to exit some positions on Thursday before grain reports.Continue reading
Stocks should be higher on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Stocks should be higher on Wednesday but we wonder who really wants to run this market up with N. Korea tensions increasing. Dollar looks higher another day and gold lower and crude higher into Thursday.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Three waves down overnight projects 2490.50. Willing to be a buyer overnight on dips. Day traders did well selling the 2500 region but the market didn’t go low enough to pick up a good risk/reward for new shorts so we may have to chase. Monday’ fall was enough to satisfy the minor pattern completion that was needed before two more highs are to come. The larger cycle into Wednesday/Thursday has been supportive in the past for important cycle highs, and it will be a strong force. Swing traders need to accumulate on dips based on patterns and cycles.
NEAR TERM: There is a larger cycle that will continue to hold this market up into Wednesday/Thursday and so any shorts have to scramble quickly. We may day trade the short-side depending on night conditions.
OVERALL: As long as 2485 holds, the market needs two more new highs to complete the latest pattern into October before a break. We had thought at least 2519 would come in.
Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Wednesday.
Good chance for grains bounce on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Wheat remains bid but beans broke enough that we can relax a bit more and corn isn’t doing much. Good chance for a bounce on grains for Wednesday but it’s harvest time. Trade may start congesting before Friday’s grain stocks report – as if we need another report. Still, harvest pressure should still win out.Continue reading
Stocks still potentially lower on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (9/26) Stocks still potentially lower on Tuesday but the funds will come in and swoop up bargains for new highs yet. Heart-broken about the world tragedy and current state and the inability for us to help Puerto Rico. Please donate generously. 3.5 million people have been impacted, lacking very basic needs.Continue reading
Will favor grain shorts one more day
FOR TUESDAY: (9/26) Crop progress reports were rather neutral. Grains are recovering a bit at the open in the early night session and were oversold. Wheat looks best. We will favor shorts one more day but then may have to move stops lower into Wednesday.Continue reading
Stocks look lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Another tense weekend, as the war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. There are also a lot of dire prophetic predictions and we have had our share of volcano and earthquake energy around the planet and stocks still managed to close near their highs—but not necessarily Nasdaq. Merkel elections over the weekend could swing the Euro a bit and weekend profit-taking there and that could create an impact.Continue reading
Grain cycles look lower Monday/Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Happy Fall Equinox. Grains are tiring and we would think they will give into weekend harvest pressure. All cycles look lower for grains Monday/Tuesday and thinking we may get a strong move down from weekend harvest pressure. COF report was bearish and the market was overbought into it and leaning the wrong way so a correction into Thursday could easily happen. Cold storage was very friendly for frozen pork bellies and may allow a nice bounce in hogs this week.Continue reading
FOMC a game-changer for the dollar
FOR FRIDAY: (9/22) Starting to think that the FOMC was a game-changer for the dollar and we’ll buy dips into Sunday night/early Monday. Gold still in trouble until 1275 comes in next week. Crude seems higher into at least Sunday night and we have to complete research around the rest of the month.Continue reading