Stocks should be higher on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Stocks should be higher on Wednesday but we wonder who really wants to run this market up with N. Korea tensions increasing. Dollar looks higher another day and gold lower and crude higher into Thursday.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Three waves down overnight projects 2490.50. Willing to be a buyer overnight on dips. Day traders did well selling the 2500 region but the market didn’t go low enough to pick up a good risk/reward for new shorts so we may have to chase. Monday’ fall was enough to satisfy the minor pattern completion that was needed before two more highs are to come. The larger cycle into Wednesday/Thursday has been supportive in the past for important cycle highs, and it will be a strong force. Swing traders need to accumulate on dips based on patterns and cycles.
NEAR TERM: There is a larger cycle that will continue to hold this market up into Wednesday/Thursday and so any shorts have to scramble quickly. We may day trade the short-side depending on night conditions.
OVERALL: As long as 2485 holds, the market needs two more new highs to complete the latest pattern into October before a break. We had thought at least 2519 would come in.
Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Wednesday.

Good chance for grains bounce on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Wheat remains bid but beans broke enough that we can relax a bit more and corn isn’t doing much. Good chance for a bounce on grains for Wednesday but it’s harvest time. Trade may start congesting before Friday’s grain stocks report – as if we need another report. Still, harvest pressure should still win out.Continue reading

Stocks still potentially lower on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/26) Stocks still potentially lower on Tuesday but the funds will come in and swoop up bargains for new highs yet. Heart-broken about the world tragedy and current state and the inability for us to help Puerto Rico. Please donate generously. 3.5 million people have been impacted, lacking very basic needs.Continue reading

Will favor grain shorts one more day

FOR TUESDAY: (9/26) Crop progress reports were rather neutral. Grains are recovering a bit at the open in the early night session and were oversold. Wheat looks best. We will favor shorts one more day but then may have to move stops lower into Wednesday.Continue reading

Stocks look lower on Monday

FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Another tense weekend, as the war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. There are also a lot of dire prophetic predictions and we have had our share of volcano and earthquake energy around the planet and stocks still managed to close near their highs—but not necessarily Nasdaq. Merkel elections over the weekend could swing the Euro a bit and weekend profit-taking there and that could create an impact.Continue reading

Grain cycles look lower Monday/Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Happy Fall Equinox. Grains are tiring and we would think they will give into weekend harvest pressure. All cycles look lower for grains Monday/Tuesday and thinking we may get a strong move down from weekend harvest pressure. COF report was bearish and the market was overbought into it and leaning the wrong way so a correction into Thursday could easily happen. Cold storage was very friendly for frozen pork bellies and may allow a nice bounce in hogs this week.Continue reading

FOMC a game-changer for the dollar

FOR FRIDAY: (9/22) Starting to think that the FOMC was a game-changer for the dollar and we’ll buy dips into Sunday night/early Monday. Gold still in trouble until 1275 comes in next week. Crude seems higher into at least Sunday night and we have to complete research around the rest of the month.Continue reading

Favor lower grains on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (9/22) We have a bias toward lower grains on Friday and harvest pressure should pick up. Trade is waiting on COF report and there has been a bias toward a friendly report but the price has to be built in by now.Continue reading

Sluggish trade for stocks and bonds on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (9/21) We have the Jewish New Year holiday on Thursday and that may create sluggish trade for stocks and bonds. We’re still wondering if the FOMC statement was a game changer. We are clear on weaker gold to 1275-1280 next and that could push the dollar above 9300 and issue a stronger weekly chart buy signal. Gold projecting 1200 into Christmas suggests that a dollar bottom is close and that a secondary high into early November may need to be bought. Stocks are too close to major resistance and NQ is really tiring but new highs are coming but a spill on Sunday/Monday looks likely. Meanwhile, pour out your pocketbooks to the troubled areas of the world with Puerto Rico and Mexico being ignored much too much—as if we’re jaded after Irma and Harvey.Continue reading