Will favor grain shorts one more day

FOR TUESDAY: (9/26) Crop progress reports were rather neutral. Grains are recovering a bit at the open in the early night session and were oversold. Wheat looks best. We will favor shorts one more day but then may have to move stops lower into Wednesday.Continue reading

Stocks look lower on Monday

FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Another tense weekend, as the war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. There are also a lot of dire prophetic predictions and we have had our share of volcano and earthquake energy around the planet and stocks still managed to close near their highs—but not necessarily Nasdaq. Merkel elections over the weekend could swing the Euro a bit and weekend profit-taking there and that could create an impact.Continue reading

Grain cycles look lower Monday/Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Happy Fall Equinox. Grains are tiring and we would think they will give into weekend harvest pressure. All cycles look lower for grains Monday/Tuesday and thinking we may get a strong move down from weekend harvest pressure. COF report was bearish and the market was overbought into it and leaning the wrong way so a correction into Thursday could easily happen. Cold storage was very friendly for frozen pork bellies and may allow a nice bounce in hogs this week.Continue reading

FOMC a game-changer for the dollar

FOR FRIDAY: (9/22) Starting to think that the FOMC was a game-changer for the dollar and we’ll buy dips into Sunday night/early Monday. Gold still in trouble until 1275 comes in next week. Crude seems higher into at least Sunday night and we have to complete research around the rest of the month.Continue reading

Favor lower grains on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (9/22) We have a bias toward lower grains on Friday and harvest pressure should pick up. Trade is waiting on COF report and there has been a bias toward a friendly report but the price has to be built in by now.Continue reading

Sluggish trade for stocks and bonds on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (9/21) We have the Jewish New Year holiday on Thursday and that may create sluggish trade for stocks and bonds. We’re still wondering if the FOMC statement was a game changer. We are clear on weaker gold to 1275-1280 next and that could push the dollar above 9300 and issue a stronger weekly chart buy signal. Gold projecting 1200 into Christmas suggests that a dollar bottom is close and that a secondary high into early November may need to be bought. Stocks are too close to major resistance and NQ is really tiring but new highs are coming but a spill on Sunday/Monday looks likely. Meanwhile, pour out your pocketbooks to the troubled areas of the world with Puerto Rico and Mexico being ignored much too much—as if we’re jaded after Irma and Harvey.Continue reading

Dollar looks lower on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/20) Time for more fun and games. The feeling is that whatever Yellen says, the dollar will go down because of the following factors:

* Fed’s dot plot likely to go through a downgrade
* The storms might wreck Fed’s balance sheet plans
* Rate increases won’t necessarily tighten financial conditions
* Yellen’s future still hangs in the balance
* Hawkish Fed cries set to fall on deaf ears (again!)

The problem with all of these stories as there are often surprises.Continue reading

Grains not likely to hit more ideal sell targets

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/20) Grains are rather oversold and we have to give the market a chance to bounce into Tuesday night. Not likely to hit more ideal targets but not willing to chase without a bounce. We continue to focus on looking for recoveries to sell. Grains look lower this week so hedging and cash sales will be important on Tuesday/Tuesday night.Continue reading

Stock cycles supportive into Tuesday night

FOR TUESDAY: (9/19) Trade may be anxious to do anything before Trump opens his mouth at the UN. Expect something patriotic that will probably rally the market. Stock cycles seem supportive into the Tuesday night session and they usually take the market up before FOMC.Continue reading