Have to be patient chasing grains

FOR THURSDAY: (9/7) Impact for Southeastern US harvest will push prices up into the USDA report so we can buy dips but have to pick your spots carefully. We missed getting into beans and they will be hard to chase now. Have to be patient chasing any grains. Cattle up at least one more day with struggling hogs up into Friday but also struggling a bit and cycles turn a bit weaker.Continue reading

Markets illogical; news volatile

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/6) Markets can be illogical and that could always happen on Wednesday. Too much background noise with a Category 5 hurricane heading for Florida –and hopefully swerving out to sea or going other places. Still, it’s rather unnerving and at the same time N. Korea is moving missiles around getting ready for another launch by Sept. 9. Still, markets are illogical with wildfires in Oregon and flooding in Houston are forgotten when you can push your stock portfolio higher. We did have contract rollover coming also.Continue reading

Still see a recovery for meats this week

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/6) We ‘ve been thinking early frost this year because of a very cool August and now parts of western NE may experience it on Wednesday and that could spook the market more. While the hurricane’s path is unknown, damage to orange groves is likely and those hurricane remnants may hurt Southern harvest. Given a very oversold grains, there’s reason to have short-covering. We still see a recovery for meats this week.Continue reading

S&P a buy on dips for at least a few days?

FOR TUESDAY: (9/5) Not sure another hurricane heading for the US will be considered good for the economy but people feel all this money goes out of insurance funds and into buying replacement goods and it’s sometimes a boost for the economy. North Korea tensions are still there and we have to see how much these markets react when cash trading happens. Three day weekends are hard to trade but generally if the market is down into a 3-day weekend, it often will bounce out of there. If gold and silver hit key numbers overnight, they will be a sale for a week and SP should be a buy on dips for at least a few days. Hurricane Irma is the new wild card and brushing Puerto Rico isn’t going to be good for that bankrupt country and heading to Florida is no picnic.Continue reading

Dealing with month-end profit-taking

FOR FRIDAY: (9/1) Dealing with month-end profit-taking, position squaring and pre-Labor Day position squaring. Lower pattern completions on grains should be over by Tuesday to 918 on Nov. beans and 338 on Dec. corn. Not seeing any huge reason to buy but that could change by Tuesday night.Continue reading

Won’t take much to push SP into a buy signal

FOR THURSDAY: (8/31) The big question is whether pre-holiday position squaring and month-end fund profit-taking and contract rollover will overwhelm upper pattern completion, which might take until Monday/Tuesday to complete. ADP showed a gain of 276,000 private sector jobs. Is the trade assuming a strong number for employment for Friday, and GDP was the best in 3 years. We hate the buildup before 3-day weekends. Won’t take much to push SP into a buy signal and NQ has already gone there.Continue reading

Have to take profits early

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/30) Sucker punch day on Tuesday. To us, they all look like 4th waves but we’re concerned about thinning conditions before the holidays as well as month-end fund profit-taking and contract rollovers for notes and silver. Have to take profits early because of all the above but if we hold into Monday/Tuesday, upper targets should come in.Continue reading