S&P a buy on dips for at least a few days?

FOR TUESDAY: (9/5) Not sure another hurricane heading for the US will be considered good for the economy but people feel all this money goes out of insurance funds and into buying replacement goods and it’s sometimes a boost for the economy. North Korea tensions are still there and we have to see how much these markets react when cash trading happens. Three day weekends are hard to trade but generally if the market is down into a 3-day weekend, it often will bounce out of there. If gold and silver hit key numbers overnight, they will be a sale for a week and SP should be a buy on dips for at least a few days. Hurricane Irma is the new wild card and brushing Puerto Rico isn’t going to be good for that bankrupt country and heading to Florida is no picnic.Continue reading

Dealing with month-end profit-taking

FOR FRIDAY: (9/1) Dealing with month-end profit-taking, position squaring and pre-Labor Day position squaring. Lower pattern completions on grains should be over by Tuesday to 918 on Nov. beans and 338 on Dec. corn. Not seeing any huge reason to buy but that could change by Tuesday night.Continue reading

Won’t take much to push SP into a buy signal

FOR THURSDAY: (8/31) The big question is whether pre-holiday position squaring and month-end fund profit-taking and contract rollover will overwhelm upper pattern completion, which might take until Monday/Tuesday to complete. ADP showed a gain of 276,000 private sector jobs. Is the trade assuming a strong number for employment for Friday, and GDP was the best in 3 years. We hate the buildup before 3-day weekends. Won’t take much to push SP into a buy signal and NQ has already gone there.Continue reading

Have to take profits early

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/30) Sucker punch day on Tuesday. To us, they all look like 4th waves but we’re concerned about thinning conditions before the holidays as well as month-end fund profit-taking and contract rollovers for notes and silver. Have to take profits early because of all the above but if we hold into Monday/Tuesday, upper targets should come in.Continue reading

Hogs should start short-covering

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/30) We have to start thinking about month-end profit-taking, fund-squaring and pre-Labor Day thinning out of the trade. That makes new positions a bit more precarious, as profit-taking will enter. Hogs should start short-covering to the upside. Cattle look wild and will do a secondary low the next few days and grains still have lower to go as late as Tuesday when we return from the holiday.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (8/29) Asia is all upset overnight with the N. Korean missiles but if the market gets trashed overnight, it may have nowhere to go in the morning but fill gaps. Hard to chase at night unless you stay up all night. We do have dollar weakness and stock weakness all week so we can sell bounces into gaps, and gold still has 4-5 more days to the upside.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (8/29) Rains last week improved crops but is the market oversold enough that a bounce will start soon. Some key numbers are close now and cycle lows due by Wednesday. Cattle are overbought already from the report and hope to get a secondary low by Friday to buy. Hogs seasonally bottom here.Continue reading