Have to take profits early

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/30) Sucker punch day on Tuesday. To us, they all look like 4th waves but we’re concerned about thinning conditions before the holidays as well as month-end fund profit-taking and contract rollovers for notes and silver. Have to take profits early because of all the above but if we hold into Monday/Tuesday, upper targets should come in.Continue reading

Hogs should start short-covering

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/30) We have to start thinking about month-end profit-taking, fund-squaring and pre-Labor Day thinning out of the trade. That makes new positions a bit more precarious, as profit-taking will enter. Hogs should start short-covering to the upside. Cattle look wild and will do a secondary low the next few days and grains still have lower to go as late as Tuesday when we return from the holiday.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (8/29) Asia is all upset overnight with the N. Korean missiles but if the market gets trashed overnight, it may have nowhere to go in the morning but fill gaps. Hard to chase at night unless you stay up all night. We do have dollar weakness and stock weakness all week so we can sell bounces into gaps, and gold still has 4-5 more days to the upside.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (8/29) Rains last week improved crops but is the market oversold enough that a bounce will start soon. Some key numbers are close now and cycle lows due by Wednesday. Cattle are overbought already from the report and hope to get a secondary low by Friday to buy. Hogs seasonally bottom here.Continue reading

Stocks may take a break next week

FOR MONDAY: (8/25) Nothing dramatic at Jackson Hole except a continued drubbing for the dollar that should continue into Labor Day. Stocks may take a break next week and be sideways to lower. Gold and silver look higher for another week and oil is in trouble next week. Mondays have been doggy in the summer and overdone conditions from Friday may balance out or will the trade be struck by the horror of Hurricane Harvey? Send prayers and donations to those in need going into the weekend.Continue reading

Open to a Sunday grain bounce

FOR MONDAY: (8/25) We’re open for a Sunday bounce but patterns to the downside on corn aren’t complete. The Cattle on Feed report wasn’t as bad as expected, with placements coming in at 2.7% increase vs. expectations for 6.2%. The good news is that once the large supply overhanging the market dries up in the next 4-5 weeks, that maybe by Jan-Feb, the trend will reverse back to the upside for higher prices. Cattle are very oversold and so they may be difficult to push down too much more unless the trade continues to trade seasonal problems into late September and too much supply over the next 4-5 weeks.Continue reading

Favor lower dollars, higher gold and stocks Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (8/25) Jackson Hole doesn’t begin until tonight and Drahgi and Yellen aren’t speaking until Friday so the market is still on hold unless they are positioning big before those speeches. Not sure how big a deal Hurricane Harvey is but crude was not worried on Thursday. We have a bias toward lower dollars and higher gold and higher stocks on Friday but we’ve seen so many Yellen and Draghi surprises, it’s difficult to be overextended.Continue reading

Cycles volatile on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (8/25) Cycles are volatile on Friday and not sure if anyone will care about the hurricane. Yellen is also speaking in Jackson Hole so the week should end with a bang. Markets are very oversold but the trend down for grains is very strong. Any bounces will be a gift.Continue reading