FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/23) Grains still in trouble, as corn keeps making new lows along with wheat. Spreading against long beans is preventing beans from breaking and support from oil is helping. Cattle up one more day but then we would exit before pre-COF position squaring enters. Cold storage report is friendly and worth a day trade buy for hogs but not sure how long we can stick around.Continue reading
Trade waiting on Jackson Hole on Thursday
FOR TUESDAY: (8/22) Trade waiting on Jackson Hole on Thursday and it’s still the dog days of summer. We don’t like cycles on Tuesday and if the stock market doesn’t gallop on Monday night, it may still be a sale. We have a bias toward buying gold on dips and selling dollar rallies the next few days.Continue reading
Grains could bounce overnight from oversold conditions
FOR TUESDAY: (8/22) Grains could bounce overnight from oversold conditions but in the end they seem lower into Friday and even if they’re oversold, they’re in trouble. Would resell beans if they stay under 950 in the early morning and corn is rather beaten up but wheat going to 391 might pull it lower. Cattle are higher on Tuesday but feeders would look better with one more push lower.Continue reading
Expect high volatility next week
FOR MONDAY: (8/21) The total Solar eclipse is on Monday. They are dangerous to watch even with protective glasses so be safe. They can create eerie feelings so markets could be particularly wild if any wild news hits. We can only go with patterns analysis and watch key breakdown figures. Many world events will be triggered as a result of eclipses. Expect high volatility next week even if Monday is quiet for some reason because fund managers are still at the beach.Continue reading
Wheat not done until 405
FOR MONDAY: Not expecting a whole lot of movement. At some point we need to sell beans but have to be patient probably until Monday night. Wheat not done until 405 comes and corn still will hit 359 if you’re patient. We had noted that the last 3 years we didn’t get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen until Wednesday. Impossible to be long. Waiting for a possible bounce into Monday to get something short but can’t count on anything. Beans closer to 939 or 946 could still offer a sale/hedge.Continue reading
Cycles very whippy the next 2-3 days
FOR FRIDAY: (8/18) We knew to sell on Thursday but the market didn’t quite get as high as we would have liked and we missed it and had not thought it would break so hard. Cycles are very whippy the next 2-3 days. Violence and terrorism cycles are strong into late August and so while we hope Barcelona and Virginia are it, we fear there’s more coming. Harder to hold trades overnight. Will have to see what the morning brings.Continue reading
Waiting for possible bounce into Monday
FOR FRIDAY: We had noted that the last 3 years we did not get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen Wednesday. Impossible to be long. Waiting for a possible bounce into Monday to get something short but can’t count on anything. Beans closer to 939 or 946 could still offer a sale/hedge.Continue reading
Stock market tiring
FOR THURSDAY: (8/17) Stock market tiring and not getting good news with the dissolution of the Business Council. Still, cycles will turn better in the morning if the market doesn’t fold overnight. Gold cycles are stronger into next week so thinking we missed the buy and will get in. That would mean the dollar won’t let us go short at 9442.Continue reading
Grains looking more bearish Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: We had noted that the last 3 years we did not get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen today. Looking more bearish for Thursday but no risk/reward on new sales. Only beans managed to bounce off of key support at 921. Wheat starting to project 405 and will pull corn to 359.Continue reading
Best chance for a S&P pullback is Thursday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/16) Waiting on FOMC for Wednesday but cycles seem the weakest if politicians get into any major fighting. S&P has the best chance for a pullback on Thursday but it may not be that big. Last day down for metals so let’s hope they don’t fall too much.Continue reading